The Cool Spell is ending, A Warmer Spell Lies Ahead

September 16, 2014 0 Comments

It’s now been a full week since Rochester officially reached the 70 degree mark. With an October-like weather pattern in place, highs in the 50s and 60s have been the norm and we’ve even had a little premature frost on a couple of occasions. However, that pattern is beginning to change as a shift toward warmer, more September-like weather is taking place and 70s not only seem possible, but even likely for much of the next week or two. High pressure provided the local area with the clear skies, light winds, and dry atmosphere overnight Monday to allow local temperatures to bottom out in the 30s. Here’s a look at some local temperatures from Monday afternoon and night and 24 hour rainfall levels from the most recent storm system:

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
905 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

: VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY…LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS…
: AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
:
:
:                                 HIGH   LOW   PCPN
:
DODGE CENTER AWOS     MN :   59 /  37 / 0.18
AUSTIN AWOS           MN :   59 /  36 / 0.03
ROCHESTER ASOS        MN :   61 /  38 / 0.26
PRESTON AWOS          MN :   58 /  40 / 0.12
WINONA AWOS           MN :   61 /  39 / 0.21

CHARLES CITY AWOS     IA :   61 /  37 / 0.28
DECORAH AWOS          IA :   59 /  36 / 0.30
OELWEIN AWOS          IA :   61 /  36 / 0.06
:
MEDFORD AWOS          WI :   60 /  33 / 0.00
BLACK RIVER FALLS AWOSWI :   62 /  32 / 0.14
LA CROSSE ASOS        WI :   64 /  44 / 0.35
SPARTA-FT MCCOY AWOS  WI :   60 /  32 / 0.23
VIROQUA AWOS          WI :   59 /  37 / 0.25
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AWOS WI :   60 /  41 / 0.14
BOSCOBEL ASOS         WI :   62 /  43 / 0.26
PLATTEVILLE AWOS      WI :   57 /  37 / 0.06

…OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS…
VALUES REPRESENT 24 HOUR TOTALS AS OF THIS MORNING

TIME   HIGH  LOW   PCPN

:…SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…
AUSTIN                MN/  56 /  36 / 0.04
BYRON 4N              MN/  60 /  33 / 0.17
CALEDONIA             MN/  59 /  40 / 0.20
GRAND MEADOW          MN/  56 /  36 / 0.15
LA CRESCENT DAM 7     MN/     /     / 0.40
LANESBORO             MN /                   / 0.14
MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5  MN     / 0.17
PRESTON               MN/  69 /  34 / 0.09
WABASHA               MN /     / 0.10
WINONA DAM 5A         MN/  62 /  43 / 0.22

:…NORTHEAST IOWA…
CALMAR                IA  / 0.29
CHARLES CITY COOP     IA     / 0.32
CRESCO                IA  63 /  35 / 0.22
ELKADER 6SSW          IA  58 /  33 / 0.09
FAYETTE               IA   61 /  36 / 0.13
GUTTENBERG DAM 10     IA     /     / 0.10
IONIA 2W              IA     /     / 0.15
NASHUA 2SW            IA     /     / 0.18
NEW HAMPTON           IA    /  58 /  36 /
OSAGE                 IA 59 /  39 / 0.30
ST ANSGAR             IA :DH0630/     /     / 0.40

Temperatures are expected to be typical of mid September today through Thursday with upper 60s and lower 70s each day before a surge of warmer air blows in for Friday and Saturday ahead of a storm system that will glide through the upper Midwest to our north. We’ll have gusty winds and some scattered showers and thunderstorms through parts of those days, but there look to be some pleasant stretches of weather during those days and in the surrounding days where we’ll enjoy some of the best of what Mother Nature has to offer in the early Fall season.

The combined 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show our local area on the fringe of a warm spell that may keep things mild through the tail end of September.

The combined 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show our local area on the fringe of a warm spell that may keep things mild through the tail end of September.

The current pattern in longer range models and from the Climate Prediction Center shows this warm spell lasting in some form through pretty much the end of September. Yes, there will be cold fronts from time to time, but right now it looks like conservatively speaking, we’ll be closer to the seasonal normal of upper 60s and lower 70s through the next couple of weeks than the lower 50s and 60s of the past week. Of course, this is an early look at the second half of the month and things may shift a bit. the bottom line here is that we may have been experiencing quite a bit of prematurely cool, October weather recently, but we still have plenty of September left in us.

The rainfall outlook is looking drier beyond this weekend with high pressure more often than not dominating the scene, making for possibly the longest stretch of comfortable, sun filled weather of the year. Keep your fingers crossed!

 

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