A cool start to July, but warmer days are not far off

July 1, 2015 0 Comments

We’re starting the month of July on a cool, crisp, and May-like note with 70s instead of 80s or 90s and little in the way of summer-like humidity. The jet stream for weeks has been oriented more to the northwest than in a west to east “zonal” flow or in a ridge that might bring a prolonged stretch of hot, sweaty weather. As a result, June in Rochester was officially just slightly cooler than normal. Humidity came in short spurts, but that’s not too strange for June. We’re really just getting started in muggy weather season at this point.

Temperatures for June were just about right on the climate average while rainfall surprisingly ended up a little below normal.

Temperatures for June were just about right on the climate average while rainfall surprisingly ended up a little below normal.

The month ended up within a degree of the normal high and low for the month and rainfall was within a quarter-inch of the monthly average. I would say that’s about as good as it gets as we really got to experience a true-to-life June with just a few rounds of severe weather, but not any widespread tornado outbreaks that the month can often times produce. In fact, there were really only two or three “outbreaks” of severe weather in what is typically the very peak of severe weather season in our region. In addition, we only reached 80 degrees nine out of the 30 days in June and just twice did we exceed 82 degrees meaning we enjoyed some pretty reasonable temperatures that perhaps helped us save a little money on air conditioning. Meanwhile, rainfall seemed too plentiful, and in some locations it was very heavy thanks to the strong thunderstorm outbreak of Monday the 22nd, however Rochester ended a little below average. That was mainly because of the hit and miss character of our June thunderstorms. Most of the 4.46 inches we officially received was in the first half of the month with just an inch and a half coming after the 15th.

 

Looking ahead to July, the Climate Prediction Center has placed the entire region, and much of the United States for that matter, in the “cooler than normal” range in the 30 day monthly outlook. Rainfall may be close to normal if not just slightly above average. Typically, July features a¬†fairly steady temperatures curve as far as climate figures go with 82 in the beginning of the month for the normal high and 80 by the end of the month.

The climate outlook for July in Rochester, MN.

The climate outlook for July in Rochester, MN.

We’re kicking off the month with a cool spell of weather. It’s almost as if we’re helping our neighbors to the north, Canada, celebrate Canada Day by enjoying some of their natural air conditioning. Cool, crisp, dry air is flowing into the Upper Mississippi Valley from the heart of the Great Lakes on easterly winds while the jet stream continues to be holding the warm, toasty air to the south with its northwesterly flow pattern.

The jet stream aloft is driving weaker disturbance across the region while cool, less humid weather continues to be the story for the most part.

The jet stream aloft is driving weaker disturbance across the region while cool, less humid weather continues to be the story for the most part.

As we approach the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we’ll finally begin to get a decent taste of typical July weather as we dip our toe in the warmer pool of air that has been planted in the southwestern half of the country. While we still don’t have any hot or even warmer than normal weather on the horizon at the moment, we look to begin to see more consistent 80 degrees warmth. The jet stream aloft will flatten a bit, allowing more seasonably warm air into the Upper Midwest, so lower 80s may begin to dominate the 7 day outlook instead of the upper 70s that have really been the rule for more than a month.

A flat, zonal pattern means more seasonable 80 degree warmth will take over starting this weekend, lasting through next week as well.

A flat, zonal pattern means more seasonable 80 degree warmth will take over starting this weekend, lasting through next week as well.

If you’re heading up north for the holiday weekend, there is good and not so good news. First of all, temperatures will be typical for early July, so that seasonable warmth will be working its way northward into the north woods of Minnesota and Wisconsin and there will be decent periods of sunshine to enjoy Friday through Sunday. Unfortunately, each day will also feature at least a small chance of rain. The wettest day looks to be Sunday with just a slight chance on Independence Day itself.

There will be at least a small chance of rain each day up north from Friday to Sunday, but temperatures will be typical of early July. Not as cool as recent days and not too hot.

There will be at least a small chance of rain each day up north from Friday to Sunday, but temperatures will be typical of early July. Not as cool as recent days and not too hot.

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