A cool July so far, but more summer-like warmth is on its way

July 8, 2015 0 Comments

With the exception of about tow and half days over last weekend, our month of July has really felt nothing like a typical July. We’re a solid week into the month and only twice have we reached 80 degrees officially in Rochester. We experienced a gasp of summer warmth and humidity from early Saturday morning through early Monday before the now infamous cold front swept through the region from the prairies of Canada, allowing cooler, drier, but also smokier air into the area on gusty northwest winds. Aside from that warm spell over the weekend, we’ve had September-like weather for the most part, averaging a daily high temperature of 75.4 degrees which is more typical for the last week of May or early September than early July.

The upper level pattern has been in a northwesterly flow for most of the summer thus far, leading to cooler than normal weather and just sporadic chances of rain, typically associated with the endless supply of cold fronts affecting the Midwest in this situation.

The upper level pattern has been in a northwesterly flow for most of the summer thus far, leading to cooler than normal weather and just sporadic chances of rain, typically associated with the endless supply of cold fronts making their way into the Midwest.

The current upper level pattern is drawing cooler air into the northern tier of states, meaning high temperatures in the 70s instead of 80s for the most part while smoke and haze from western Canadian wildfires is also somewhat of a factor. We’ve had haze in the air at times over the last ten days or so, the worst again occurring on Monday the 6th when subsidence aloft behind a cold front mixed down a lot of that smoke, essentially causing fumigation across the local area and much of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Our pattern is going to slowly shift, however, as we approach the upcoming weekend. The trough, or downward angle in the upper level winds, is going to flatten and possibly buckle northward as a ridge, allowing more warmth into the Upper Midwest.

A ridge begins to develop this weekend aloft. A surface storm system is expected to roll inform the southwest, ushering in some seasonable heat and humidity and possibly set us up for scattered shower and thunderstorm chances by late Friday evening with better chances during the day Saturday.

A ridge begins to develop this weekend aloft. A surface storm system is expected to roll inform the southwest, ushering in some seasonable heat and humidity and possibly set us up for scattered shower and thunderstorm chances by late Friday evening with better chances during the day Saturday.

The upper level pattern will continue in this northward shift heading into next week, possibly meaning more seasonable warmth and humidity in the longer term weather picture as we push through the middle portion of July. High temperatures are expected to be at or slightly above the seasonal norm for this part of the year which around 82 degrees daily.

The upper level pattern continues to feature a possible ridge in the upper Midwest, allowing the July-like warmth to take over for a potentially lengthy spell of a week or more.

The upper level pattern continues to feature a possible ridge in the upper Midwest, allowing the July-like warmth to take over for a potentially lengthy spell of a week or more.

The latest outlook for the Climate Prediction Center paints a very typical summer picture for us with low to mid 80s for highs in this scenario and occasional doses of rain, but nothing far off the mark is forecast right now. Essentially, normal temperatures (or somewhat close to the climate average) and normal amounts of rain, which is a good thing even though we had such a wet May and early June. Things oftentimes begin to dry out in this part of the year and remain dry in August, or at least that’s been the pattern in the last four or five years, so any situation where we see parade of storm systems that bring regular rounds of garden variety showers and thunderstorms is favorable for us.

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