It seems like winter showed up all at once for us as our weekend storm system made up for lost time bringing significant snowfall to most of the area.  We officially ended up with 4.1 inches of snowfall in Rochester on Sunday, snapping the string of 292 days without at least one inch of measurable snowfall in the city.  That, incidentally, was the fourth longest such stretch in Rochester’s climate history.  Sunday was also the first time in which we  as much as four inches of snowfall in one day since February 20th, 2011!  Here’s a look at some area snowfall totals from Sunday’s storm:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
718 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM DECEMBER 9-10...

LOCATION      SNOWFALL  TIME    LAT/LON

IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
WAUKON 5 E                    3.5         0601 AM 43.27N 91.38W
WAUKON 8NW                    1.0         1216 PM 43.34N 91.6W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
MONONA                        3.0         0700 AM 43.04N 91.4W
GUTTENBERG                    3.0         1200 AM 42.79N 91.1W
VOLGA                         0.8         0700 AM 42.81N 91.52W

...MITCHELL COUNTY...
ST ANSGAR                     1.4         0630 AM 43.38N 92.92W

MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
MANTORVILLE                   5.5         0607 PM 44.07N 92.76W
CLAREMONT 3 SSE               3.0         0326 PM 44.01N 92.97W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
PRESTON                       4.0         0707 AM 43.68N 92.08W
PETERSON 1S                   3.0         0705 PM 43.78N 91.82W
SPRING VALLEY                 3.0         0707 AM 43.69N 92.39W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
RENO 3SW                      6.7         0927 PM 43.53N 91.33W
LA CRESCENT 1N                6.4         0749 PM 43.83N 91.31W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN 1 W                    2.3         0922 PM 43.67N 92.99W

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
ORONOCO                       5.2         0435 PM 44.16N 92.54W
ROCHESTER AP 2NE              4.2         0700 AM 43.93N 92.48W
ROCHESTER                     4.0         0557 PM 44.02N 92.48W

...WABASHA COUNTY...
READS LANDING 1W             10.2         0759 PM 44.40N 92.17W
THEILMAN                      6.7         0624 PM 44.30N 92.2W

...WINONA COUNTY...
WINONA                        7.7         0856 PM 44.05N 91.66W
WINONA 3S                     6.5         0601 AM 43.99N 91.61W
MINNESOTA CITY                6.3         0719 PM 44.09N 91.75W
GOODVIEW                      6.3         0647 AM 44.07N 91.71W
LA CRESCENT DAM 7             5.0         0700 PM 43.87N 91.31W
ST CHARLES 5N                 4.1         0750 PM 44.04N 92.07W

WISCONSIN

...ADAMS COUNTY...
FRIENDSHIP                    4.0         0526 AM 43.97N 89.82W
ARKDALE                       2.4         0628 PM 44.03N 89.88W

...BUFFALO COUNTY...
MONDOVI                       7.0         0500 PM 44.56N 91.67W
ALMA DAM 4                    5.2         0700 PM 44.33N 91.92W
COCHRANE                      5.0         0852 PM 44.22N 91.82W

...CLARK COUNTY...
NEILLSVILLE                   8.0         0443 AM 44.56N 90.59W
COLBY 4SW                     7.0         0525 AM 44.87N 90.42W
NEILLSVILLE 4NNE              6.0         0643 PM 44.61N 90.56W
LONGWOOD                      2.0         0431 PM 44.89N 90.6W

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
LYNXVILLE DAM 9               3.0         0700 PM 43.21N 91.1W

...GRANT COUNTY...
DICKEYVILLE                   4.0         0705 AM 42.63N 90.59W
PLATTEVILLE                   3.7         0704 AM 42.74N 90.48W
SINSINAWA                     2.3         0900 AM 42.52N 90.54W

...JACKSON COUNTY...
BLACK RIVER FALLS 2SE         4.8         0859 PM 44.28N 90.83W
MERRILLAN                     4.0         0424 PM 44.45N 90.84W

...JUNEAU COUNTY...
NEW LISBON 2N                 3.0         0635 PM 43.90N 90.17W
NECEDAH 3SE                   2.0         0631 PM 43.98N 90.04W
MAUSTON                       2.0         0445 AM 43.80N 90.08W

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
HOLMEN 2NW                    7.0         0859 PM 43.98N 91.29W
LA CROSSE NWS                 6.8         0451 AM 43.82N 91.19W
LA CROSSE WEATHER             6.7         0600 AM 43.82N 91.19W
LA CROSSE 4 NNW               6.6         0925 PM 43.88N 91.27W
HOLMEN 2S                     6.3         0700 AM 43.93N 91.25W
WEST SALEM                    5.3         0921 PM 43.90N 91.1W
LA CROSSE 5SE                 5.0         0700 AM 43.77N 91.15W

...MONROE COUNTY...
WARRENS                       8.0         0700 AM 44.10N 90.59W
TUNNEL CITY                   5.6         1238 AM 44.00N 90.57W
CASHTON                       5.5         0902 PM 43.74N 90.79W
SPARTA                        4.0         0444 AM 43.95N 90.81W
WILTON 3E                     2.9         0246 PM 43.80N 90.47W

...TAYLOR COUNTY...
MEDFORD                       4.0         0917 PM 45.14N 90.35W
LUBLIN                        2.5         0434 PM 45.08N 90.72W

...TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...
ARCADIA                       8.0         0912 PM 44.25N 91.49W
OSSEO                         6.5         0857 PM 44.58N 91.21W
GALESVILLE 2 WSW              6.0         1240 AM 44.07N 91.39W
TREMPEALEAU DAM 6             5.4         0700 PM 44.00N 91.44W
GALESVILLE                    5.3         0545 PM 44.08N 91.36W
INDEPENDENCE3NE               4.5         0405 PM 44.39N 91.39W
WHITEHALL 2W                  4.0         0545 AM 44.37N 91.36W

...VERNON COUNTY...
STODDARD 2NE                  4.8         0909 PM 43.69N 91.18W
STODDARD 5NNE                 4.8         0909 PM 43.72N 91.17W
VIROQUA                       4.5         0632 PM 43.55N 90.89W
WESTBY 3ENE                   4.1         0421 PM 43.66N 90.82W
STODDARD                      3.5         0700 AM 43.66N 91.24W
GENOA                         3.0         0700 PM 43.57N 91.23W

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
935 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012

...PRELIMINARY SNOW FALL TOTALS...
...MORE REPORTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...
...FINAL TOTALS WILL BE PUBLISHED MONDAY...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL
AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION. WE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATES...
BUT GIVEN THE VOLUME OF REPORTS SOME DUPLICATES MAY BE PRESENT.
THANK YOU TO ALL WHO HAVE PROVIDED AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SNOWFALL
TOTALS.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
 ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
 16.00   3 N LINO LAKES           MN  ANOKA            0741 PM
                 REPORT FROM COLUMBUS... STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
 15.80   HUGO                     MN  WASHINGTON       0900 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
 15.50   ISANTI                   MN  ISANTI           0730 PM
                 LIGHT SNOW FALLING...THOUGH NOW STARTING TO
                 GET BLOWN BY WINDS.
 15.20   HAM LAKE                 MN  ANOKA            0643 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 14.90   1 ESE CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           0830 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
 14.00   FALCON HEIGHTS           MN  RAMSEY           0904 PM
                 STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING
 14.00   3 E EAST FARMINGTON      WI  POLK             0638 PM
                 STILL FALLING
 14.00   4 SSE SILVER CREEK       MN  WRIGHT           0523 PM
                 STILL SNOWING 1/4 MILE VISIBLITY.
 13.50   OSCEOLA                  WI  POLK             0625 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 13.50   FOREST LAKE              MN  WASHINGTON       0516 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 13.10   MONTICELLO               MN  WRIGHT           0835 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
 13.10   3 WSW BLAINE             MN  ANOKA            0758 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
 13.00   3 W RED WING             MN  GOODHUE          0632 PM
                 SNOW SNOWING
 13.00   COON RAPIDS              MN  ANOKA            0630 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 13.00   KINGSTON                 MN  MEEKER           0518 PM
                 SNOW TAPERED
 13.00   3 NW REDWOOD FALLS       MN  REDWOOD          0410 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 13.00   8 ESE PRINCETON          MN  ISANTI           0337 PM
                 STILL SNOW
 12.70   1 E ST MICHAEL           MN  WRIGHT           0906 PM
 12.60   2 SSE FRIDLEY            MN  ANOKA            0600 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.50   DARWIN                   MN  MEEKER           0837 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY...WITH BLOWING SNOW NOW
                 AS WELL
 12.50   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0517 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.50   2 NNW NORTH BRANCH       MN  CHISAGO          0410 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.40   3 NE BURNSVILLE          MN  DAKOTA           0552 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.10   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0712 PM
                 STILL SNOWING.
 12.00   MINNETONKA               MN  HENNEPIN         0738 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
 12.00   NEW RICHMOND             WI  ST. CROIX        0722 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.00   3 S EXCELSIOR            MN  HENNEPIN         0635 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.00   COKATO                   MN  WRIGHT           0618 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 12.00   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0545 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 11.80   MAHTOMEDI                MN  WASHINGTON       0638 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 11.70   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0759 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 11.50   HANOVER                  MN  WRIGHT           0732 PM
 11.50   2 W EAGAN                MN  DAKOTA           0700 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
 11.50   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0521 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 11.50   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       0500 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 11.50   3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0459 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 11.30   1 W RED WING             MN  GOODHUE          0859 PM
 11.00   SHOREVIEW                MN  RAMSEY           0812 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
 11.00   2 NW EAU CLAIRE          WI  EAU CLAIRE       0730 PM
                 STILL SNOWING...
 11.00   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0632 PM
                 SNOW TAPERING
 11.00   5 WSW ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0510 PM
                 STILL SNOW
 11.00   2 W FOLEY                MN  BENTON           0410 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 10.80   3 N LAKEVILLE            MN  DAKOTA           0811 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.
 10.80   3 NW ROCKFORD            MN  WRIGHT           0729 PM
                 STILL SNOWING.
 10.80   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0600 PM
                 SNOW TAPERING STC AIRPORT
 10.70   1 SW EDINA               MN  HENNEPIN         0730 PM
                 STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY
 10.60   3 SW MAPLE GROVE         MN  HENNEPIN         0737 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 10.50   COTTAGE GROVE            MN  WASHINGTON       0557 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 10.40   OTSEGO                   MN  WRIGHT           0435 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
 10.20   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0606 PM
                 STILL SNOWING MSP AIRPORT
 10.10   5 NW ROSEVILLE           MN  ANOKA            0337 PM
 10.00   ANDOVER                  MN  ANOKA            0510 PM
 10.00   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0459 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.90   3 SW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0600 PM
                 STILL SNOWING.
  9.50   ORONO                    MN  HENNEPIN         0632 PM
                 SNOW TAPERING
  9.50   3 SW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0606 PM
                 SNOW TAPERING
  9.50   4 NE WOODBURY            MN  WASHINGTON       0459 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.50   1 W DURAND               WI  PEPIN            0356 PM
  9.40   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0645 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.40   2 W NEW PRAGUE           MN  SCOTT            0536 PM
                 STILL SNOWING.
  9.40   PLYMOUTH                 MN  HENNEPIN         0347 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.40   RICHFIELD                MN  HENNEPIN         0337 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.30   AUGUSTA                  WI  EAU CLAIRE       0901 PM
  9.30   HUTCHINSON               MN  MCLEOD           0435 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.30   5 S FARMINGTON           MN  DAKOTA           0435 PM
                 SNOW TAPERED
  9.00   FARMINGTON               MN  DAKOTA           0646 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  9.00   3 S MINNEAPOLIS          MN  HENNEPIN         0606 PM
  9.00   CREDIT RIVER             MN  SCOTT            0454 PM
                 SNOW TAPERED
  8.80   8 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0736 PM
  8.50   HAMMOND                  WI  ST. CROIX        0538 PM
  8.50   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0521 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  8.40   WATERTOWN                MN  CARVER           0357 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  7.50   4 SW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0435 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  7.00   BOYCEVILLE               WI  DUNN             0459 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  6.50   5 WNW MORA               MN  KANABEC          0856 PM
  5.50   MOTLEY                   MN  MORRISON         0606 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  5.10   4 S ISLAND LAKE          WI  CHIPPEWA         0721 PM
                 STILL SNOWING.
  5.00   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0337 PM
                 STILL SNOWING WQOW TV
  4.30   10 N BRUCE               WI  RUSK             0435 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  4.30   4 ESE CLAYTON            WI  BARRON           0435 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  3.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0701 PM
                 STILL SNOWING
  3.50   1 E OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0435 PM
                 SNOW TAPERED
  2.00   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0348 PM
                 STILL SNOWING

Posted under Uncategorized

It is getting to be that time of the year again.  The temperatures are dropping and the water on the smaller bodies will start to freeze and thaw until we settle into Winter and then basically everything freezes.  My daily forecast ritual, as with many meteorologists, is to look at the visible satellite to determine where, if any the clouds are.  On Monday (11/26) afternoon I noticed something.  Visible satellite works basically just how its name suggests.  It needs daylight in order to work, so at night, this type of satellite imagery becomes useless.  There are other different types of satellite imagery that pick up the slack when it’s dark, but that’s a story for another day.  Anyway, the visible satellite works by picking up on the light that is reflected back to the satellite from the Earth’s surface.  Objects on the Earth’s surface reflect light differently. The ground reflects light differently than clouds and that is how we can determine the difference between the clouds and the ground.  There are also different types of clouds; some thick, some thin.  The thick ones don’t let a lot of sunlight through.  Those are your big thunderstorm clouds and therefore reflect most of the sunlight back to the the satellite and will appear a brighter white on the satellite image.  Now that you are a little familiar with how visible satellite works, I can get on with the moral of the story.  On a clear day with visible satellite imagery, you can see the ground and some of its features such as large bodies of water and mountains.  In the winter time you can see the snow from a satellite picture.  Skiers, snow boarders, and people driving through the fresh snow know how highly reflective and bright the snow can big on a sunny day.  Ice has this same property on lakes, and there is a huge difference how frozen lakes compare to ones that still have water.  The image below is a visible satellite image taken on Monday, November 26th.  It lays out what are clouds, what is snow, and what is the ground.  It is a lot easier to tell what is what when this image is looping since the clouds move and the ground doesn’t, but trust me on this.

Visible satellite image showing ice on lakes in northern Minnesota

Notice the difference in color between the Red Lakes and Mille Lacs Lake.  Mille Lacs Lake is darker since water is less reflective than ice.  The Upper and Lower Red Lakes appear a frosty bright white on the satellite picture.  The reason for the color difference is that the northern lakes have ice on them while the southern lakes don’t.  It has been much colder in the northern part of Minnesota.  Even with ice being on the lakes, it is still not thick enough to walk on, especially considering we will be warming up over the next week or so.

Posted under Cold, just cool, weather

With just two weeks remaining in meteorological winter we find ourselves getting closer and closer to setting a new record for the warmest winter in history.  As our temperatures continue to hover some ten degrees above climate average this month, our overall mean temperatures for the winter continues to climb, drawing us closer to the highest mean temperature ever recorded in Rochester of 25.1° set ten years ago in 2001-02.  The way things appear right now, we’ll pass that record in the next week or two as the forecast is calling for highs in the 30s with lows mainly in the lower and mid 20s.  Here’s the official statement and summary of our current situation from the National Weather Service in La Crosse, Wisconsin:

Warmest Winter Since 2001-02…So Far

Posted under winter weather

Talk about polar opposites when comparing last winter to this winter.  I decided to jump the gun a little bit and give a winter update on where things are standing in terms of breaking any seasonable records.  Some of these are eye popping and I couldn’t contain waiting til the end of meteorological winter (December,January, February) which officially ends the first day of March.  That leaves us with 17 days to change some things around, but in the grand scheme of things when you have had over two months of an extremely mild winter, that time frame really won’t change much in the temperature department.  I was busy crunching some numbers and checking climate stats and here what I came with.

We are going to take this month by month.  December gave us our first “brown” Christmas since 2006 and temperature wise it was “warm” enough to be tied with the 9th warmest December on record with an average temperature of 26.05°.  This average temperature contains the highs averaged in with the low temperatures in case you were wondering.   We picked up 8.4 inches of snow coming out to be 1.21 inches in its liquid equivalent, both on the very low side when compared to our record setting December of last year.

In January our average temperature was 22.8° degrees.  That was good enough to tie us for 6th warmest January on record.  We picked up 8.1 inches of snow translating to .57 inches of its liquid equivalent.

Those two months are set in stone, but we still have half of February to go.  So far February’s temps are staying on the mild side.  The average through the first 12 days is 25.17°.  That puts us in a tie for 7th warmest Feb on record so far.  We have only seen a trace of snow as of Feb. 12th.

The eye popping part now comes together.  When you put December, January and what we have for February so far, we are on pace for the 3rd warmest meteorological winter on record!  Here is the top ten.  Our official number comes in at 25. 17°

As a side note for snowfall, we currently have the third lowest amount.  Now snowfall is measured through June, so we do have a lot of time to make up for our low snow amounts, let’s just hope it doesn’t come in June.

Posted under climate, weather

Corrected for avg temperature of 22.8 degrees vs. 22.7 degrees and from 7th place to tied for 6th warmest January on record in Rochester, MN.

Our unbelievable mild weather spell continues today as we cruise into the month of February with temperatures that are more reminiscent of March than something we might feel in mid winter.  Of course this isn’t the first stretch of unseasonably warm weather we’ve experienced this winter as both December and January have already featured some incredible warmth.  Looking at the month we just finished, January, we can see that with the exception of just a few days in two cold snaps, temperatures in Rochester weren’t very January-like.  It was supposed to be the coldest month of the year and instead it was mostly unwinter-like with an average high near the freezing mark.  The mean temperature for January in Rochester was 22.8°, making it the 6th warmest January in history.  The warmest, interestingly enough, was just six years ago when we had a mean temperature of 28° in January of 2006.  Here’s a look at some of the more specific statistics:

Temperatures were well above normal for January while overall precipitation and snowfall were a little lower than average.

Posted under climate

After a day of freezing drizzle, we had to deal with some pretty messy road conditions on Monday morning thanks to the addition of some light to moderate snowfall across the area.  Totals were generally in a one to three inch range with a few outliers:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
416 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

…RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS…

LOCATION       SNOWFALL   TIME    LAT/LON

NORTHEAST IOWA

…MITCHELL COUNTY…
RICEVILLE                     1.8         0244 PM  43.36N 92.55W

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

…DODGE COUNTY…
MANTORVILLE                   3.0         1130 AM 44.07N 92.76W

…FILLMORE COUNTY…
PETERSON 1S                   2.0         1010 AM 43.78N 91.83W

…WABASHA COUNTY…
OAK CENTER                    3.5         1146 AM 44.35N 92.4W
WABASHA 5S                    2.7         1133 AM 44.32N 92.05W

…WINONA COUNTY…
WINONA                        2.6         0245 PM 44.05N 91.66W

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

…CLARK COUNTY…
WITHEE                        2.0         1128 AM 44.96N 90.6W
LONGWOOD                      1.0         1128 AM 44.89N 90.6W

…JACKSON COUNTY…
BLACK RIVER FALLS             2.5         1107 AM 44.30N 90.85W
MERRILLAN                     2.0         1108 AM 44.45N 90.84W

…JUNEAU COUNTY…
NEW LISBON 2N                 1.3         1120 AM 43.90N 90.17W
NECEDAH 3SE                   1.0         1109 AM 43.98N 90.04W
MAUSTON WRJC RADIO            1.0         1113 AM 43.82N 90.07W

…MONROE COUNTY…
SPARTA 2S                     2.5         1058 AM 43.88N 90.82W
WARRENS 5WSW                  2.0         1102 AM 44.11N 90.59W

…TAYLOR COUNTY…
WESTBORO 4E                   2.6         1105 AM 45.35N 90.26W
PERKINSTOWN 5E                1.5         1106 AM 45.20N 90.51W
JUMP RIVER 1N                 1.2         1117 AM 45.37N 90.8W

…TREMPEALEAU COUNTY…
OSSEO                         1.7         1135 AM 44.58N 91.22W
ARCADIA                       1.3         1133 AM 44.25N 91.49W
INDEPENDENCE 3NE              1.0         0244 PM 44.39N 91.39W

…VERNON COUNTY…
STODDARD 5NNE                 2.8         1136 AM 43.72N 91.17W

Rochester picked up 2.6 inches of snow officially, while we measured 3.0 inches her at KTTC. That brings our total to 7.4 inches for January and 16.0 inches for the winter which is still a foot of snow below average for the season.
We’ll have just a couple of rounds of light snow or flurries in the coming days, but little or no accumulation is expected at least for another week. Unfortunately, one of those chances is tonight as a weak disturbance brings some clouds and light snow showers to the region for the overnight period, likely interfering with our chances of seeing what looks to be an impressive aurora show (northern lights.) Keep your fingers crossed, perhaps there will be a few breaks in the clouds!

Posted under snowfall amounts

Here we are in mid December and instead of snow piling up outside as it did last year, we’re actually losing snow thanks to some incredibly mild weather and some rain and drizzle in the area.  Our once snowy landscape is now turning brown and muddy and it looks like this warm spell won’t end until all of that snow is gone.  While the official forecast from the Climate Prediction Center was calling for another La Nina winter across the country similar to the one we had last year, we’ve only seen glimpses of the intense cold that we should expect and very little of the snow we’d normally receive.  At this point last year, we had measured 25.9 inches of snow and this year, we’ve received only 4.1 inches in December.  we do have to remember two things, of course, and that is La Nina patterns can be somewhat variable, meaning some La Nina winters are snowier than others, and there are varying degrees of La Nina type weather.  The other point to make here is it’s still very early in the game and we have three months or so of winter ahead and things will likely get pretty wintry again at some point.

We've received only a fraction of the snowfall so far this December compared to last December when we set the record for the snowiest month in Rochester history.

If you’re concerned about having a white Christmas, we don’t have any promising signs of accumulating snow on the horizon this week, but there may be a couple of small chances next week, so stay tuned.  Statistically, we have a “White Christmas” about 75 to 80 percent of the time and we’ve had eleven of them in the last twelve years, so I wonder if we’re due for a clunker.  In the meantime, we’re going to closely scan the horizon and keep an eye out for snow in the forecast as we approach the holidays which are rapidly approaching.

Posted under winter weather

We’re still closely monitoring a potent storm system that will likely bring our first taste of winter this season, including the first measurable snowfall and the latest data essentially confirms our previous thinking.  Today’s forecast models are continuing to indicate a transition from rain to snow Tuesdya evening with minor slushy accumulations overnight of an inch or two and then some early morning snow for the Wednesday commute before things dry out late in the morning and for the lunch hour.  It still appears that while most of it will melt on paved areas, we’ll likely measure grassy accumulations of two to five inches of heavy, wet snow before things melt away in the late day sun.  Below is one example of what some of the computer output is suggesting:

The latest data looking ahead two days suggests that we'll see two to five inches of snow accumulation. Most will fall late tonight through noon Wednesday.

Posted under winter weather

Marty Gloff, Rochester

Here’s to hoping you enjoyed this weekend’s temps (20s, 30s? Not too shabby).

Perhaps your weekend was spent along the same lines as mine: chopping away at the ice at the end of my driveway, and listening to the sweet melting of snow drip off the roof and birds chirping. Ahh, Spring sounds….

Days like that, winter is gorgeous. And even though winter can sometimes bite, there are those times it’s just plain pretty. If you remember, we had some fog on Saturday, which left behind some hoar frost. Here’s a photo of some frost on evergreens (Feb 5th) from Marty of Rochester.

It's the MEGA COLD!

Then there are times when winter is just plain pretty, in a geeky weather sort of way.

The image to the right is of 850 mb Temps from one of the computer models we use in forecasting. In this case, 850 mb Temps help us gauge air temperature, so it can be used in forecasting highs and lows. The pretty orange-y color in northern Minnesota? That’s an 850 mb temperature of -30°C. That translates into frozen snot warnings.

What I’m getting at: two chunks of Arctic air this week, with all models latching on to it. This isn’t going to be end-of-the-world cold, nor record-breaking, but it will be cold, and for several days. How chilly? Single digit highs, single & double-digit subzero lows. The first surge will come tonight, and another will come on Wednesday. Why do we care? Because we have to complain about something around here in the dead of winter!

Us weather geeks….well, geek out over stuff like this, as pieces of air that have been brewing under perfect Arctic conditions break loose and head south. Rest assured: a warm-up looks likely for the upcoming weekend. And that’s bound to pretty, as well (and a mood lifter).

Posted under Viewer Pics, winter, winter weather

Watercooler talk for you tomorrow: yes, it’s been cold as of late, but how normal is that?

-From December 1 to January 31, Rochester typically sees about 22 days of at or below zero overnight lows. So far, there’s been 21 days (and we still have a week of January left) January typically sees the greatest number of nights that are at or below zero (13) and so far, we’ve had 15.

-Rochester’s average temperature Dec. 1 to today (Jan 24) is 14.3° So far, it’s been 11.5°. A little cool, but not far off.

-Record overnight lows this time of the year range from -25° to -40°. Record low daytime highs are subzero. We haven’t set any records since December 1st, temperature-wise.

So, they were kind of right...

January and February are prime months for chunks of Arctic air to get caught up in the jetstream, being pulled south to our area. Toward the north pole, daylight this time of the year is very slim. This allows cold air to continue to pool and build, until it’s eventually snatched south, at some point or another. And it usually ends up here – usually modified a bit (but still, snot-freezing cold by the time it does get here).

While day in and day out we have seen fairly chilly temps, in the grand scheme of things, it’s just another normal, cold winter. Hey, the Farmer’s Almanac was right….50% right. Then there’s that whole “snowiest December on record” thing.

Posted under winter, winter weather