Here we ago again! A couple of weeks removed from the biggest snow storm we have seen in the last two Winters and we are already talking about a storm that has the potential to one up that.  First to get you up to speed, here’s where we stand so far for the entire Winter.  We are sitting about 9″ below in the snowfall department, but we will have a chance to make most of, if not all of it up with this next Winter Storm.

Now on to the storm.  It will likely come in two distinct waves.  The first overnight and into late Tuesday morning with second push of moderate to heavy snow falling from Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon.  In between, during Monday afternoon, lighter snow will persist with a few breaks.  We could have a couple of inches on the ground by the morning commute, especially in Austin, Albert Lea and surrounding areas.  A general 2-4″ can be expected by Monday evening with the initial burst of moderate to heavy snow.  The better chance for the significant accumulation will come with the second push.  Below is how the storm will likely play out.

Above is the first band of snow moving in overnight that could cause a slippery morning commute.  After this initial band moves through, the snow is expected to become lighter for the time being until it picks up again later in the evening.

The second burst of moderate to heavy is snow is likely where we will pick up most of our accumulation.  Monday night is when we will likely see the heaviest snow.  The snow is expected to shut off by the late afternoon on Tuesday.  This will be a long duration snow event with two distinct snow episodes.  Here is the latest.  Isolated higher amounts could be possible in the purple outline.

A change in the track could have big impacts on the forecast.  Stay with KTTC for the latest.

Posted under climate, snowfall amounts, winter, winter weather

The much talked about snow event is here and things are getting rather wintry outside today.  It looks like we’ll be dealing with wet snow through the daylight hours today with a little gradual accumulation on the relatively warm surfaces, especially later in the day and this evening.  As things cool off a bit more tonight, we’ll see a little more in the way of accumulation as temperatures dip slightly below freezing.  A couple of things we’ll be looking for today will be how much the thunderstorm activity to our south in southern Iowa and Illinois robs some of the moisture and possibly affects our local snowfall totals and if some of that instability works its way into the southern part of our local area, possibly producing some convective snow (thundersnow) thereby enhancing the snowfall rates and increasing accumulations.  The way things look right now, Rochester and area to the north will see lighter amounts than along the Iowa border with about 3 or 4 inches at most by tomorrow morning unless some thundersnow develops.  In all reality, because of the warm ground and a southerly storm track that is right now pushing the heaviest snowfall south of the Med City, totals around Rochester, Wabasha, and Zumbrota could be an inch or two because of some of these factors, so it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.  For now, we’ll stick with our 3 to 6 inch forecast with isolated 8 inch totals in areas where thundersnow can develop.  The heaviest snowfall is likely to take place in far southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa and through much of Wisconsin. 

The current snowfall forecast as of Tuesday morning.

Posted under winter weather

Latest Watches/Warnings as of Saturday, 2:30pm.

Update on the upcoming winter storm. I’ll have a graphic available later. All of our counties are under a Winter Storm Watch from Sunday AM to Monday AM.

A few disclaimers before you read ahead:
-This highly depends on where exactly the freezing line sets up. North of there will see snow, south of there, a mix/ice/rain.

-Places that see more of a wintry mix will have lower snow totals.

-This will be a heavy, wet snow.

-Icing will most likely be an issue in northern Iowa.

-Snow/precip rates could be very heavy at times

- The following snow estimations are for southern Minnesota; icing estimations are for northern Iowa. Overall: 6-12″ will be possible in southern Minnesota by Monday morning; 3-6″ in northern Iowa; there is the possibility for a quarter to half inch of icing in north Iowa as well.  There could be higher snowfall amounts especially north of I-90. These are the best estimates I have right now…still waiting for 12z data to come in.

Tonight: Precipitation will start after midnight. Rain/freezing rain/sleet will be likely in northern Iowa, with wet snow mixing in in southern Minnesota. Snow possible tonight: 1-2″. Icing possible tonight: Trace to .10″.

Sunday: Snow/sleet mix in southern Minnesota; wintry mix/freezing rain/rain in north Iowa. Precipitation could be heavy at times. There also could be a brief lull in the afternoon. Snow possible Sunday: 3-8″. Icing possible Sunday: Trace to .25″.

Sunday night: Snow in southern Minnesota; wintry mix/snow in north Iowa. Snow possible Sunday night: 2-4″.

Stay tuned.

Posted under winter, winter weather

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for our area tonight into Tuesday

Winter Storm Warning for Freeborn, Steele, Waseca counties midnight tonight through Tuesday AM. 6-8″+ snow possible there BY TUESDAY AM.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight until Tuesday AM (Tuesday PM in Iowa) for everyone else. 4-7″ possible in the Advisory BY TUESDAY.

Timing: Snow should start especially after midnight tonight. Look for 1-2″ of snow tonight, another 2-4″ on Monday, and another 1-2″ or so Monday night.

This will be a long-lived snow event with not an all-at-once heavy snowfall, but will still impact travel, especially later tonight into Tuesday morning. The bulk of the snow will fall from Monday morning through Monday night.

And, a heads up: a large storm will pass to the south and east on Wednesday, but may come close enough to bring accumulating snow to the southern portions of the viewing area. Stay tuned on that.

Here is what one of our models is thinking for accumulations.  Take it with a grain of salt…actual totals will vary.

Posted under winter, winter weather

Today’s potent winter storm is certainly creating a lot of buzz in our region as well as at the national level because of all of the controversy surrounding the field conditions for tonight’s Monday Night Football contest between the Viking and Bears at TCF Bank Stadium.  First, the local concerns for us in southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa from today’s storm: A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for the Rochester area and for locations to the north, including the Twin Cities as there is the potential for 6 inches of accumulation by this evening from our Monday snow event.  The Warning continues through tonight and tomorrow, even though the snow itself will probably wind down by 9pm because a transition to freezing drizzle will continue to make travel treacherous.  The threat for freezing drizzle will continue into tomorrow morning with this storm system and the Warning itself runs until noon for most of us.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon tomorrow for locations to the south of Interstate 90 and the Rochester area as these spots will likely receive slightly lower amounts of snowfall…somewhere in the 3-5 inch range.  The heaviest snowfall from this storm will be during the heart of the afternoon with some spots dealing with one inch per hour rates, drastically reducing visibilities for a time.

Snowfall Forecast for Monday.

Now, on to the Monday Night Football aspect of this storm.  The Twin Cities will likely receive from 5 to 8 inches of snow today and this evening with about 6 inches on the ground for kickoff at 7:30.  Much has been talked about the stadium temperatures for this outdoor venue and it appears that this won’t be an especially dire situation for fans and players as readings will be in the 20s through the game with wind chills in the teens.  However, even though temperatures won’t be as cold as once feared, the field surface is sure to be frozen solid and it’ll be fun to see what effect the snow has on the first outdoor home game for the Vikings in almost 30 years.

Tonight's Vikings-Bears Monday Night Football Forecast

Posted under Uncategorized, winter weather

Current local snowfall forecast for Friday night and Saturday. Disclaimer: THIS MAY CHANGE!!!!

Local watches and warnings for this weekend's winter storm.

We’re continuing to watch a big storm that will be affecting our area this weekend. This system has been an honest nightmare to forecast – with inconsistencies in the model track being the biggest headache. With a waffling storm track, keep in mind that these totals below have a very good chance of changing. Overall, it appears snowfall totals of 4-8″ will be possible, with lesser totals to the south, and higher amounts to the north.  From the cities into western Wisconsin, a band of 12+” is possible.

Being brutally honest – we have low confidence with totals for this storm with all of the difficulties with forecasting it. More so, with above-freezing temperatures in northern Iowa, most of this could start as rain before it changes over to snow, which would put a HUGE dent in snowfall totals. This all depends on the exact track the storm will take.

What we do know for a fact – there will be travel difficulties tonight and Saturday across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. There will be blowing snow with near-blizzard conditions on Saturday/Saturday night.

The Winter Storm Watch (blue counties) and Blizzard Watch (green counties) will be changed to an advisory or warnings of some nature later on, depending on how the storm plays out. Stay tuned.

Here are the basics:

What to expect – Minnesota

Tonight: Precip to start late this evening: freezing rain/sleet/mushy snow. Some icing may occur. Snow by tomorrow morning: 1-3″.
Saturday: Snow, blowing snow, low visibilities. Another 4-7″ possible.
Saturday night: Snow tapering off, blowing snow, low visibilities. Storm totals: 5-10″.
Sunday: Bitterly cold, blowing snow.

What to expect – Iowa

Tonight: Precip to start late this evening: rain/freezing rain/sleet/mushy snow. Some icing may occur. Snow by tomorrow morning: 1-2″.
Saturday: Snow, blowing snow, low visibilities. Another 2-3″ possible.
Saturday night: Snow tapering off, blowing snow, low visibilities. Storm totals: 3-5″.
Sunday: Bitterly cold, blowing snow.

More data will come in later today, and we’ll keep you updated. Stay tuned and bear with us during the weekend……

Posted under winter, winter weather

UPDATED Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories from Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon

UPDATED at 10:30 am to include Iowa counties added to Warning.

Brief blog update with warnings, advisories, and how much snow to expect.
Timeline:
Late AM/Noon: Snow starts around I-35.
Mid afternoon: Snow starts east of I-35, with 1-3″ of snow by tonight.
Overnight: heaviest falls, 3-6″.
Saturday: snow tapers off in the morning, maybe another inch.
Grand totals will be in the 4-8″ range, with some locally higher amounts possible.

Projected snowfall totals by Saturday afternoon

Posted under winter, winter weather

Here’s the latest I have for you on our upcoming snow event.

The heaviest amounts will fall west of I-35 and south into Iowa. There, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect through most of Thursday: totals will be 4-7″. Snow amounts will taper off to 2-4″ in southeastern Minnesota, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect, and will drop quickly further north and east.

Look for around 1-3″ for most spots overnight; 3-6″ likely by daybreak west of I-35 and south into western/north central Iowa. The snow will come to an end from west to east during the afternoon on Thursday. Northwest winds will be steady around 15-25mph, causing blowing and drifting, especially in the wind-prone areas.

The snow’s been slow to start for most of us because of hefty layer of dry air still in place from our friendly, cold high pressure. I’m still looking for an onset this evening in southeastern MN and northeastern Iowa.

Travel will undoubtedly become tricky and slow to go overnight and into Thursday, even after the snow ends, with the blowing and drifting. Slow down, take your time, and be safe.

Posted under winter weather

7:15 a.m. update: Blizzard Warnings are in effect for most of northern Iowa from this afternoon until 3 am Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect first, until early afternoon.

Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for most of northeastern Iowa, southeastern and south central Minnesota from 9 am to Midnight.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for all other counties in the viewing area until Midnight.

Wind Chill Advisories will also go into effect later tonight for the entire area.

Snow will spread into the area from west to east this morning; 2-4″ are likely. Conditions will turn sour this afternoon with winds gusting to 40 mph, creating white-out conditions in some areas, and wind chills will drop to -30 to -40. Definitely check road conditions before you have to head out anywhere this evening.

More to come…

Posted under KTTC, weather, winter weather

Snow is very clearly underway here in southern Minnesota, and snowfall rates are going to steadily increase into the evening and overnight.  Where there has been freezing rain mixed with snow, the precipitation should be entirely snow by 6pm if not a bit earlier.  Road conditions are already beginning to deteriorate across the entire KTTC viewing area of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin, and visibilities are decreasing as the snow has begun.  Totals by Tuesday morning will generally be in the 5-8″ range, with a few locations receiving in the range of 10″ accumulations.  Wind and blowing snow will also be increasing this evening and tonight, worsening travel conditions as wind speeds pick up to 15-25mph tonight through Tuesday morning with higher gusts.

Click here to go to the KTTC website for closings, cancellations, etc. There are several in already.

Posted under KTTC, winter weather