The storm system to our west that looks to bring some unsettled, stormier weather to our area this weekend is also going to pull in some warmer and eventually more humid weather for us.  Of course, that humidity will prime the atmosphere for those rain chances while it keeps the summer-like feel in the air that we’ve been experiencing all week long.  We’re expecting some showers and thunderstorms late this evening and tonight and those look to stick around for much of Friday.  The entire weekend won’t be a washout, but there will be some shower chances each day with this upcoming storm system.  Look for morning showers Saturday with a fair amount of sunshine still around to warm us into the lower 80s.  We’ll have more widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.  It’s too early to tell if there will be severe weather this weekend, but right now the best chance looks to be later in the day Sunday into early Monday.  Rain chances with this storm system look to linger into Wednesday with temperatures slowly falling to the lower and mid 70s which is a bit closer to what we normally expect this time of the year.  If you’re heading up north, here’s a look at your weekend getaway forecast:

It’ll be a comfrotable, but unsettled weather picture in northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this weekend.

Posted under weather

For the first time this year we’re basking in the warmth of 60 degree heat across the area thanks to the passage of a warm front through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  This surge of warmer air is associated with a change in the upper level wind pattern, or jet stream, that is now buckling northward, working to bottle up the cold, Canadian air that has been around here for ages north of the border for a change.  The weekend will feature bright sunshine and high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s across our area which is a little warmer than normal for a change. 

The jet stream is beginning to lift tio the north, allowing warmer air to blow into the region.

The jet stream over the weekend will be well north of our area. Warm, May-like weather will dominate the scene.

A slow moving storm system will move in from the west early next week, bringing some scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to the region while temperatures remain fairly mild for Monday and Tuesday.  By midweek, the jet stream will buckle back southward as an upper level low develops, setting the stage for a long stretch of potentially cool and showery weather that may last from Wednesday through the following weekend.  While it may not rain the whole time, there looks to be a chance for shower activity and slightly cooler than normal weather for that period of time.

Cool, damp weather may move in for the second half of the upcoming week as the jet stream shifts south for a while. Not unusual at all for May, however.

Posted under weather

It was a warm and very dry September for us in ou area as high temperatures were just a little warmer than normal while rainfall was way below normal.  Stagnant high pressure was dominant in the regionfor te last half of the month, bringing incredibly beautiful weather, but suppressing any rainfall potential.  The atmosphere itself was very dry under that high pressure, allowing for wild daily fluctuations of temperatures with 30s and 40s typical in the mornings across the local area and afternoon highs commonly in the 70s more often than not.  Our current rainfall deficit for 2012 in Rochester now stands at 6.94 inches!  Looking ahead at the forecast, we’re expcting just a little rain on Thursday and then perhaps some more down the road in the second half of next week, but otherwise the dry weather trend appears to continue in the meantime.

We enjoyed a lot of picture perfect "postcard" weather in September, but the lack of rainfall remains a big concern for the entire area.

 Weather Summary from the NWS in La Crosse, WI:

 Rochester Minnesota

...SEPTEMBER IN ROCHESTER WAS MARKED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH WAS 61.8 DEGREES. THIS WAS
0.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE AVERAGE HIGH WAS 75.6 DEGREES...WHILE
THE AVERAGE LOW WAS 48.0 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH WAS 93 DEGREES...WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 4TH. WHILE THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE IN SEPTEMBER WAS 32 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 23RD.

ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.29 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE MONTH
WHICH WAS 2.16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ONLY 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 13 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE GREATEST 24-HOUR
AMOUNT WAS 0.69 INCHES THAT OCCURRED ON THE 4TH AND 5TH.

...RECORDS...

THERE WERE NO RECORDS ESTABLISHED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STARTED OFF VERY WARM WITH TWO DAYS OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE FIRST 11 DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES DID
INVADED THE REGION AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT PASSAGES MADE THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THERE
WERE 6 DAYS WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S OVER THE LAST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

PRECIPITATION IN ROCHESTER WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MONTH AS
WEATHER SYSTEMS WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
WERE ONLY 7 DAYS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING SEPTEMBER. ONLY
1 OF THOSE DAYS HAD OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN ROCHESTER. A
SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUED DURING SEPTEMBER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...LOOKING AHEAD TO OCTOBER...

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS 48.4 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
HIGH DROPS FROM 65 DEGREES ON THE 1ST...TO 51 DEGREES ON THE 31TH.
THE AVERAGE LOW DROPS FROM 44 DEGREES ON THE 1ST...TO 34 DEGREES ON
THE 31ST. THE WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WAS IN 1963 WITH AN AVERAGE
OF 58.1 DEGREES...AND THE COLDEST OCTOBER WAS 37.9 DEGREES IN 1917.

THE AVERAGE OCTOBER PRECIPITATION IS 2.24 INCHES. THE WETTEST OCTOBER
OCCURRED IN 1911...WHEN 9.11 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL. THE DRIEST
OCTOBER WAS 1893...WHEN THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED FOR THE
MONTH. THE AVERAGE SNOWFALL IS EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE RECORD
SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE MONTH IS 7.9 INCHES...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2009.

Posted under fall

Warm, sultry, summer-like weather continues to linger in our region today, but the countdown to a big change had already begun.  A cold front to our west is slowly approaching the area from the Dakotas and will eventually bring some cooler, drier more seasonably mild air to the Upper Mississippi Valley, but first we stand a chance at getting some much needed rainfall before it arrives.  This warm, humid atmosphere is setting the stage for some afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential across the entire area, some of which may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible.  The best chances for severe weather will be mid afternoon today through late this evening.  Otherwise, rainfall amounts look mostly light, but potenially beneficial nonetheless with an inch possible in some of the stronger cells between today and early Wednesday when the front and the rain chances will move on to the east. 

The latest Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook has our entire area under the threat of severe weather later today through tonight.

 We’ll have morning showers tomorrow and then gusty northwest winds will draw drier air into the region and afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 70s.  We’ll have another chance for some rain on Friday with another less potent cold front.

Posted under severe weather, weather

For those heading out tonight to take in some high school football, we have a summery evening ahead with warm temps, and low humidity.  Below is the evening forecast as well as a look at the cabin forecast for those who will be traveling.  Also, there’s a look back at August (at least the first 30 days.)

A pleasant, summer-like evening to start football season.If you're heading north for the holiday weekend, things look warm and pleasant for your getaway.We're ending August on a typically bright and warm note. The month of August as a whole was summery with a stretch of highs in the 70s keeping things from getting too far above normal with our temperatures.A warm and pleasant weather picture for those who heading up north for a weekend getaway.

A warm, pleasant weekend awaits those traveling up north for one final summer getaway.

Overall, August has been a warm month, but thanks to a stretch of two weeks in the 70s our average high temp is only slightly above normal.

Posted under climate, weather

We’re just hours away from wrapping up one of the warmest months of July in several decades in our area as only a handful of the days were even close to the type of weather we typically see in this climate.  In other words, with just a few exceptions we’ve been much warmer than average or what we consider “normal”.  In Rochester, we’ve been averaging 87.6° for high temperatures this month while 81° would have been normal according to the averages of the past 30 years while the average low has been a warm 66.8°.  Strangely enough, only one record has been broken this month and that was on Independence Day when our morning low was 75°, the warmest low ever for that date.  Incidentally, the high that day was 93° and was the fifth in a series of seven consecutive days with official highs in the 90s.

By the way, we’re expecting warmer than normal conditions again today to round out the month with highs in the mid 80s, so the July average likely won’t drop much, if at all.

Warmest Mean July Temperatures in Rochester History:

The third warmest July in Rochester history with only three days at or below normal for high temperatures (all in the last week.)

Posted under climate

It’s certainly been an unusually warm and at times very dry month of July across our area and it looks like that trend will carry over into the upcoming month of August.  As it stands right now, July 2012 has been the third warmest in Rochester’s history with a mean temperature of 77.2° (that’s 87.5° for the average high and 66.9° for the low.)  Those numbers tie us with July 1955 and it’s not impossible that we may end up in sole possession of third by the end of the month which is just hours away.  The next couple of days will certainly be warmer than normal as will most of this week, boosting our average.  The pattern won’t be quite as rough as the middle of July was when we were so hot and dry as a series of cold fronts will be marching through the region, keeping temperatures a little closer to normal and rainfall slightly more plentiful.  With that said, it does appear that odds are in favor of warmer than normal and drier than normal weather.  Beyond August there is hope that the rainfall situation will improve as the odds for dry and normal rainfall even out while warmer than normal weather is going to be a continuing trend through the fall and possibly the entire winter.

Climate Prediction Center Outlooks:

There's a strong possibility that we'll be warmer than normal for the month of August.

Our area is in the drier than normal outlook for precipitation in the month of August from the Climate Prediction Center.

Posted under climate

We’re in the seventh, and most likely final day, of our current 90°+ heat wave as a cold front looms to our northwest, poised to swing through the area tonight, bringing relief from the scorching heat and heavy humidity.  In the meantime, heat indices today (Friday) are as high as anything we’re experienced this year with triple digits being found just about everywhere in the region.  An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire viewing area until 10:00 tonight as afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s and dew points in the mid 70s will create heat indices from 100 to 115.  While there will certainly be some chances for showers and thunderstorms later this evening and tonight, the activity looks scattered to sparse with light amounts of rainfall expected and widespread severe weather a small possibility.  Behind the upcoming cold front, we’ll have dew points in the 60s for the weekend with high temperatures in the 80s, creating afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 80s, a vast departure from the triple digit stuff we’ve been experiencing all week long.  It looks like the cooler, more seasonable weather will persist through the weekend and next week, meaning 80s will be more common than 90s and humidity should be a little more tolerable.  Unfortunately, rainfall potential looks lower as well as only slight chances exist in the next 7 to 10 days.

The jet stream is currently located to our north in southern Canada, allowing a large, hot air mass control the midsection of the U.S.

The jet stream will take a dip to the south this weekend and for the early part of next week, allowing cooler air to invade the heart of the U.S. while the west and southwest will be much hotter.

Posted under heat, weather

Even though the last couple of days in the month of May we quite a bit cooler than normal and even a little unsettled, the overall picture for May 2012 was a rather warm one for us.  As we’ve seen every month so far this year, our average high temperature for the month was warmer than normal as was the low while rainfall was more than an inch greater than the 30 year average, so aside from the lack of extensive humidity, we’ve already had quite a taste of summer weather this season.  In fact, today (June 1st) marks the beginning of what we call “meteorological summer” where the three warmest, wettest month of the calendar year are bunched together for climate record keeping purposes, so at least we’re primed for the new season and ready to go.  As it appears right now, we’ll have a couple of comfortable spring-like days ahead today and tomorrow, before the near 80° warmth builds in for the end of the weekend and then lingers for the first full week of the young month of June next week.

It was warmer and wetter than normal in May 2012. We reached highs of 80° or more 9 times.

Posted under climate

While we’ve enjoyed some pleasant, sun filled weather over the past couple of afternoons, we still could use a little more rain for our lawns, fields, and gardens to keep things green and from the looks of our current forecast for the next few days, there will be at least a couple of opportunities to get some rain in the area.  The storm system that is responsible for producing our gusty winds today will eventually spread some showers and thunderstorms across the area tomorrow, tomorrow night, and Thursday.  Right now, it looks like there will be enough moisture available and energy in that storm system to squeeze out half an inch or more of rainfall locally between Wednesday and Thursday which would be a nice start.  There will be a chance for a few isolated or hit-and-miss thunderstorms in the area tomorrow, especially in the afternoon and evening with more widespread showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night into early Thursday.  There may be a couple of round of thunderstorms Thursday as the cold front with that approaching storm system slowly pushes through the area.  There appears to be a chance for some strong or severe storms later tomorrow, mainly to our west with a better chance of large hail and some strong winds in those storms across the heart of our local area Thursday as things will be just a little more unstable.  We’ll have get a break from the shower and thunderstorm activity Friday with sunshine and 70s expected before another storm system moves in for the weekend.  Right now, we’ll have to keep an eye on Saturday and then late Sunday night into Monday morning or midday as the best chance for showers and possibly severe thunderstorms.

The severe weather threat tomorrow appears to be later in the day and primarily to our west, but a better chance for strong storms appears to move in for Thursday. Large hail and strong winds will be possible in those severe storms Thursday.

Posted under Holidays, severe weather