Here’s the latest on the potent winter storm that is expected to reach our area for tomorrow and Wednesday:

While there are several things that may change in the next day or so, possibly resulting in an altogether different outcome in our local weather, the current forecast outlook for the next major storm system in our region is looking a little warmer and wetter for us.  The latest forecast data suggests that the storm system moving in for tomorrow and hanging around for most of Wednesday will take a fairly northerly track, keeping us in the “warm sector” where rain, sleet, and freezing rain will be the primary concerns while the heavy snow potential will be confined to weather and northwestern Minnesota and for the eastern Dakotas.  Incidentally, some locations in that part of the region will deal with blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday as winds will then be reaching 40 miles per hour at times.

Right now, we’re expecting light snow or a mixture of freezing rain and snow to develop in the mid morning hours across the area tomorrow, making for a slippery Tuesday.  Snowfall amounts will be generally light tomorrow with little accumulation if any expected.  The freezing rain concerns will last through the afternoon and into the evening when warmer air aloft will allow for soaking cold rains to spread across the area, making it feel more like April than the last full night of February.  The rain is expected to transition to a wintry mixture or some light, wet snow for Wednesday morning and early afternoon on the back side of the storm system, possibly adding up to an inch or so of accumulation before things dry out Wednesday evening.  The greatest threat for extensive icing in this upcoming storm will be through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening when not only will things be hazardous on the roads, but power outages will be possible.  Overall snowfall totals locally, meanwhile, look to be in more of one to three inch range on theMinnesotaside of the border if in fact snow develops long enough for accumulations to occur.  The Twin Cities will likely see slightly higher amounts of snow, depending on the exact storm track and may end up with as much as six inches and as little as a couple of inches.

The current forecast thinking is for a wetter scenario where our area has lower snowfall totals and more rain and possibly ice accretion in store for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted under winter weather

The SPC still has us in a slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

A strong area of low pressure will pass across the upper Midwest, bringing first a warm front, followed by a cold front through our area.

The dynamics are certainly there for severe weather, but a few x-factors are going into the mix as well, such as morning cloud cover, cloudy periods throughout the day (i.e. how much heating we’ll see), and the timing of the cold front.

All said and done, if storms do erupt, all severe weather modes will be possible. It appears a tornadic threat could exist for a few hours in the evening, before transitioning over to a damaging wind event. Stay tuned!

Posted under severe weather

No excuses weather-wise not to get out and vote on Tuesday. Rain should hold off until Wednesday, with the best chance for a good soaker on Thursday. Colder air then gets wrapped in for Friday, and a rain/snow mix or snow showers can be expected then.

In the meantime, Rochester’s record high for Monday, November 3rd is 73° (1978). I’m forecasting 74°. I think we’ll see even warmer readings for our friends in Iowa. Overnight lows will be in the 50s the next few mornings…incredibly mild for this time of the year. Enjoy!

Posted under climate, KTTC, weather