While all eyes continue to watch Tropical Storm Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico, we in the Upper Mississippi Valley are looking ahead to the end of the week when that storm may get close enough to actually impact our weather.  At this point, the National Hurricane Center’s five day cone forecast spreads the potential of rain in our direction by Friday night or Saturday morning.  With that said, the probability seems somewhat remote as it appears Isaac will first weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday after making landfall in the Gulf coast Tuesday evening, and then begin to move eastward by the time it moves as far north as the mid Mississippi Valley around St. Louis.  The best case scenario as suggested by some computer model runs over the weekend, was for Isaac to produce some scattered thunderstorms in far southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and through Chicago on its northern flank.  Right now that doesn’t look as likely, but it’s not completely impossible, so we will be watching, waiting, and hoping for some rainfall from this storm system.  The current rainfall deficit for north Iowa for the past year is around 10 inches and that area is in Extreme Drought while southern Minnesota is under Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions with deficits for the summer around four or five inches.

The current forecast track for Isaac. It's depicted here at a hurricane track as the storm is expected to reach hurricane status before making landfall late Tuesday.

While it currently seems unlikely that Isaac will bring much rain to our region, there is still a lot of time before the storm gets close enough to directly impact the Midwest. There is just a slight chance for some rain for our area from Isaac at this point in our weekend forecast.

Posted under Tropical weather

Things are getting more and more active in central and western Atlantic Ocean right now as we approach the peak of hurricane season.  On Tuesday, we discussed the disturbance that was likely to become a tropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean west of the Cape Verde Islands as well as the projected path of Hurricane Katia.  Well, the latest information on that region indicates that a tropical storm indeed has formed and is being called Maria.  This storm is expected to remain a tropical storm over the next few days as it approaches the West Indies and the longer range computer modeling suggests that it will veer to the east before reaching the southeastern U.S. early next week.  Katia is expected to do the same as it drifts northwestward between Bermuda and North Carolina and then moves quickly to the northeast, narrowly missing Newfoundland and then getting caught up in the jet stream.  After that, it’s going to travel across the Atlantic and by Monday it’ll end up somewhere between Iceland and northwestern Scotland, possibly reaching the Faroe Islands off the coast of Norway as a hurricane before weakening.  Image that: a hurricane in northern Europe!  We’ll have to wait and see of course, but it will be kind of interesting to see what does end up happening.  A tropical storm last year held together long enough to brush the southern end of Greenland before becoming an extratropical storm system, producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds for that region.

Katia is expected to remain a category one hurricane for several more days, eventually making its way to northwestern Europe.

Maria is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next few days in the western Atlantic before possibly moving back to the east and away from the U.S.

Posted under Tropical weather

Fay made landfall early Tuesday morning as a Tropical Storm. The center of the storm passed near Camp Romano (about 20 miles south of Naples). Fay is still whipping up winds of 65 mph and is slowly progressing to the north and northeast around 10 mph. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are still expected across the southern part of Florida. It will slowly weaken as it wobbles across Florida, but if it hits the Atlantic again, it could re-strengthen.

Along that note, we’re waiting to see how Fay’s path pans out over the next couple of days. Some of the computer models are still thinking Fay will make a turn westward. This still could take it back into the Gulf and allow it to reintensify. The idea merely suggests that folks along the Gulf Coast shouldn’t be confident with the fact that they missed out on Fay.

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, weather

Fay has still not made landfall on the western Florida coast. It’s moving very slowly to the north, around 10 mph, and is battering the southern part of the Florida with rain and gusty winds. Fay’s still a Tropical Storm – winds are around 60 mph – and there’s some uncertainty with whether or not it will reach Category 1 Hurricane strength before making landfall.

Even after it makes landfall, one of the computer models is thinking it’s going to be doing a loop-de-loop and heading back westward into the Gulf of Mexico. It’s uncommon, but it has happened before. Randy managed to dig up two examples (see below): Florence (1960) and Gordon (1994). Will it happen with Fay? We will wait and see…

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, weather

We’re about to hit the one year anniversary of a tough event for many in Southeast Minnesota. Tonight and the next couple of days, our reporters will be featuring stories on the floods and where cities affected stand a year later. You can find the stories on the KTTC website.

We’ve kept an extensive collection of the photos viewers had sent in from the August ’07 floods. You can find those by clicking here. It is incredible what the wrath of water can do, and hard to look at some of the pictures.

Our weather the next several days will be the exact opposite of what happened this time last year. High pressure will keep the area warm (in the 80s for highs), but the humidity in check. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the week, where some of us could top out around 90°. A weak cool front to our north will try to spark some showers tomorrow afternoon as it passes through the area, but they will be hit or miss and will fade shortly after sunset. The air’s not much cooler behind this front, either.

On another “tough weather” note, all eyes are still on Fay, which is still a tropical storm (winds are around 50 mph with higher gusts as of the 8 p.m. EDT report). It is currently passing over western Cuba. Fay is expected to slowly continue to strengthen as it hits the Florida Keys later Monday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Hurricane Watches are posted along the western coast of Florida, and landfall is expected near the panhandle sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday, as a Category 1 Hurricane.  It is looking more and more likely that we will see our next landfalling storm by the time Wednesday rolls around.

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, weather

Tropical Storm Fay is still forecasted to become a Category 1 Hurricane before it makes landfall somewhere along the western Florida coastline on Tuesday. Fay has weakened today, with winds (from the 5 p.m. EDT report) around 40 mph (a weak tropical storm), but is expected to reorganize and continue to strengthen as it passes through Cuba by Sunday night. We’ll continue to watch it and pass along information here! Hurricane watches are out for western Cuba, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for eastern Cuba.

Keep an eye on Tropical Storm Fay here.

A little closer to home, expect summer-y conditions for the next several days. A strong ridge of high pressure will settle in, and will keep temps in the 80s, and rain chances at bay until next weekend.

Posted under KTTC, Tropical weather, weather

Tune in the NewsCenter at 5 and 6 pm on Tuesday. We’ll be talking more about the now-Hurricane Dolly and tracking the storm as it continues to wobble towards the southern Texas coast. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for that area, and landfall of the Category 1 storm is expected Wednesday morning.

You can watch an update on Dolly from the NewsCenter at 6 on the KTTC homepage. Click play on the Top Video player on the right-hand side of the page. You can also watch Randy’s Tuesday 6pm Weather, which features a look at how rainfall will affect the Texas area.

Posted under KTTC, Tropical weather, weather

Here’s an update on Dolly:

No, not that Dolly. This one:

We’re only about a month and a half into hurricane season, and we’re already talking about the possibility of the first land-falling storm of the 2008 season. Tropical Storm Dolly remains dead-set in tracking northwestward into the warm Gulf waters, picking up some steam, and making landfall somewhere along the Mexico coast or south Texas by mid-week. Hurricane watches are already in effect (click image to left for more information from the National Hurricane Center). 

What’s going for Dolly? Here’s a quick Hurricane 101. Hurricanes like warm ocean waters, warm air, plenty of time to hang out oven open water, and little wind shear in the atmosphere (that means light winds higher up in the atmosphere). For the most part, that’s what Dolly has in its favor. What’s NOT in its – er, her – favor, is the relatively short time span she will spend over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.

So it’s a two-fold situation: on one hand, we will most likely see a hurricane make landfall. It will bring high winds, high surf, flooding concerns, lots of rain, and probably some damage along the southern coast of Texas and into northern Mexico (and maybe as well to our pocketbooks as it skirts the southern fringe of the real dense oil rig areas). On the other hand, it’ll be a low end hurricane – Category 1. So while any hurricane that makes landfall is no good news, a relatively weak one is good news for folks with interests along that area.

We’ll be keeping our eyes on it! You can bet we’ll be talking about it for at least the next couple of days.

Posted under KTTC, Tropical weather, weather

Two weather events are making national headlines right now in the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Cristobal and Tropical Storm Dolly. 

Cristobal currently has the North Carolina coast under a tropical storm warning.  A tropical storm warning means that winds are sustained between 39 mph and 73 mph at the surface.  Cristobal is giving 45 mph winds and is not forecasted to become any stronger than 50 mph.  After the storm passes the coast of NC and tracks northeast, it is not expected to directly hit landfall again until possibly Nova Scotia on Tuesday. It is likely going to fall below even tropical disturbance criteria by that point as it moves out of warmer waters and loses its power source.

Dolly still has plenty of warm water to work with as it is developing over the Northwestern Carribean.  This tropical storm also has current sustained winds of 45 mph and is not expected to strengthen as it passes over the Yucatan pennensula, but on the other side of the that, Dolly will come into the Gulf of Mexico where surface water temperatures are over 82°F.  Couple the warm tropical water temperatures with an upper level low pressure system Dolly will cross paths with, it is possible that this tropical storm will strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, then weaken again as it makes landfall into Thursday and Friday.

Posted under KTTC, Tropical weather, weather