For the past few days we’ve been closely watching a potent storm system to our west that first affected us by kicking up some strong winds, and now is producing showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The severe weather from this storm system last night was just to our north and west and today it looks like the severe weather potential will be centered on the heart of our area.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk of severe weather today from “Slight Risk” to “Moderate Risk” meaning there’s a higher probability of a sizable outbreak of severe weather, possibly involving some tornadoes.  The best chance for this to occur locally is between 2:00 and 6:00 this afternoon as the cold associated with the upcoming storm system pushes through the area.  We’ll have gusty south winds ahead of the front that will occasionally reach 40 miles per hour, especially in the eastern portion of our local area and then those winds will turn to the west behind the front later today, diminishing only after sunset this evening and later tonight.  Here’s the SPC outlook:

Southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and a large portion of Wisconsin have been placed in the Moderate Risk for severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening.

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Enjoy the bright, quiet sunshine today because wet, unsettled weather is going to be the forecast for much of the next week or so, starting tomorrow.  We’ll have some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but right now severe weather isn’t a concern.  That will change, however, on Saturday as a storm system and its warm front will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley, possibly igniting some strong thunderstorms in the region.  The best chance for activity locally will be mid to late afternoon Saturday and the area most likely to see severe weather will be along and south of Interstate 90 and in northeast Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin.  Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes will be possible, so we’ll have to keep a close on on that thunderstorm potential over the next couple of days and then watch the radar over the weekend.  In the meantime, rainfall this weekend and next week may seem like a nuisance to some people, but we really could use the moisture as our current deficit for the year is more than an inch and we’d really like to reduce the wildfire threat.   The severe weather threat will then shift away from our local area for Sunday and for next week.  There’s a chance that more than an inch or two may fall in the next seven days as a few storm systems will be tracking through the region, so things will be rather unsettled for a while.

Severe Weather Risk for Saturday. The best chances in the country will be to our south, but parts of our area may see some stronger activity later in the day.

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The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center isn’t a pretty one to say the least, especially for the southern plains.  In a region that has dealt with more than its share of death and destruction this spring, there is the potential for yet another round of volatile weather today as a storm system coming out of the Rockies is continuing to keep that region under the gun for severe weather.  In fact, a rare High Risk area has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of Kansas and Oklahoma, meaning there is a strong possibility of a major tornado outbreak today and tonight around Wichita, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City.  A Moderate Risk has been outlined for surrounding areas, including Joplin, Missouri where 116 or more people were killed in a strong tornado on Sunday.  These areas will unfortunately also see a rather strong potential for severe weather in the next 24 hours.  We’ll definitely be thinking of the people in these affected areas today and hope for the best possible outcome from today’s weather situation.

On the other hand, our local area is looking at just benign showers and isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon with a soggy, cool day ahead for our Wednesday.  Our next chance for severe weather may be on Memorial Day Monday with the approach of a strong storm system from the west.  It’s definitely pretty far off at this point, but it’s something we’re going to be keeping an eye on over the next few days as we get closer to the big holiday weekend.

Only a handful of "High Risk" areas are outlined for severe weather in any given year and today there is one for the southern plains.

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Highs Tuesday will once again reach the mid-90s, which will make for heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 by Tuesday afternoon. Hot and muggy weather like this always seems to lead to a good round of thunderstorms, and it looks like we could be seeing that happen late Tuesday and periodically through Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a slight risk for severe weather Tuesday. Stay tuned for the latest…

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Our first real taste of severe weather came just hours ago last night and already we’re facing the prospect of more severe thunderstorms today.  Our next round of severe weather is affecting us this morning on the Iowa side of the border as an intense, fast moving squall line rumbles eastward.

Severe Thunderstorms Watch effective until 11AMDamaging winds appear to be the greatest threat with this line of storms. The Storm Prediction Center has also placed our entire area in the Moderate Risk of severe weather for today. We may end up having to deal with a more widespread severe weather event late in the afternoon and for the evening hours with some tornadoes becoming possible again.Moderate Risk for severe storms in northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, and Illinois

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