It certainly has been a cool and wet first half of April with temperatures running about eleven degrees below normal on average and rainfall amounts approaching triple the normal value in Rochester as of the midpoint in the month.  The official rainfall total in the Med City has been 3.89 inches, which is 2.42 inches of moisture above normal to date and from the look of things, we have quite a bit more on the way for the latter part of this week.  We’re enjoying the most pleasant part of the week right now with sunshine and light winds making for a decent Tuesday afternoon, but after this it will be all down hill for the next few days thanks to a large, messy storm system that, just like last week, looks to bring heavy rain and then some accumulating snow to the region.   Expect rain to develop in the middle of our Wednesday with some heavy downpours and thunderstorms Wednesday evening.  We’ll keep the cool, blustery theme going Thursday with light rain that will eventually transition to a rain and snow mixture late in the day before becoming all snow Thursday night.  Nothing is set in stone yet, but there is the potential that many of us may have to dig out of a coating of five or six inches of snow Friday morning on the back side of this storm system.  There’s also a chance that it will be wetter snow and not as deep, so there are many possibilities ahead of us as that part of the system is a few days away.

An inch or two of rain may fall by early Thursday as shown on our FutureCast. Some spots may receive as much as three inches causing some localized flooding.

Heavy rain and the possibility of heavy snow melt/runoff may cause flooding in some spots this week. A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for much of the local area.

Posted under Uncategorized

We’re in the midst of a very slow warming trend that is going to take us close to the seasonal averages in terms of temperatures in the region over the next few days.  Sunshine and south winds today are working to push the mercury up into the 40s this afternoon for the first time in the young month of April and it looks like a shift in our overall pattern will keep that type of temperature scheme around into the weekend.   A weak cold front will move in from the northwest late tonight and early tomorrow, bringing some sprinkles or brief, light showers, but nothing too unusual is expected.  The upper air pattern will begin to make that change this weekend as the jet stream sinks southward in the western part of the country and will begin to send pieces of energy in the form of a couple of storm systems northeastward into our region.  The end result will be a series of rain chances along with more seasonably mild weather for the weekend and most of next week.  High temperatures look to reach into the 40s to near 50 degrees through the upcoming week, just a few degrees shy of what we consider to be normal for this time of the year.

Rain chances will spread northeastward across the region Friday night and Saturday and then again late Sunday night into Monday and during the day Tuesday.

Posted under spring

Even though the last couple of days in the month of May we quite a bit cooler than normal and even a little unsettled, the overall picture for May 2012 was a rather warm one for us.  As we’ve seen every month so far this year, our average high temperature for the month was warmer than normal as was the low while rainfall was more than an inch greater than the 30 year average, so aside from the lack of extensive humidity, we’ve already had quite a taste of summer weather this season.  In fact, today (June 1st) marks the beginning of what we call “meteorological summer” where the three warmest, wettest month of the calendar year are bunched together for climate record keeping purposes, so at least we’re primed for the new season and ready to go.  As it appears right now, we’ll have a couple of comfortable spring-like days ahead today and tomorrow, before the near 80° warmth builds in for the end of the weekend and then lingers for the first full week of the young month of June next week.

It was warmer and wetter than normal in May 2012. We reached highs of 80° or more 9 times.

Posted under climate

While we are expecting abundant cloud cover this weekend with the arrival of another storm system in the area, we’re keeping our fingers crossed that there may be a few gaps in those clouds to allow us to see a spectacular Lyrid meteor shower.  The peak activity for those meteors will be tomorrow night when we will unfortunately be dealing with clouds and a few light showers.  There will at least be a slim chance that some breaks will occur in those clouds enabling us to see some of the 20 or more meteors per hour that will be expected.  Here’s more on the Lyrid meteor shower:

Posted under Astronomy

The more April-like weather of the past week has reminded us of what things should feel like in our area during a more typical year.  Normally, we’d have 40s and 50s for highs with occasional 60s and plenty of wind.  Yes, April is the windiest month on average in our area and today’s conditions are a perfect example of that early spring turbulence with gusts reaching 35 to 40 miles per hour at times.  Beyond the wind, however, the biggest story of the past week or two has been the threat for frost and freezing temperatures at night and the impact that would have on prematurely blossoming fruit trees and flowers and that is really going to be making headlines in the next couple of nights.  Today’s winds are drawing in some dry, cool air from Canada in the wake of a cold front that swept through the area over the weekend.  As surface high pressure gets a little closer and we lose that daytime heating tonight, those winds will drop off dramatically setting the stage for a clear and cold night with the potential for the coldest temperature readings of the early spring season so far.  The National Weather Service has already issued a Freeze Warning for tonight for the entire region, including all of our viewing area as lows are expected to be in the mid and upper 20s tomorrow morning.  The same situation will be possible Tuesday night as well, before warmer air begins to trickle back into the Upper Mississippi Valley for the middle and latter parts of the week.

Another night, another Freeze Warning for our area. Tonight's temperatures are expected to be the coldest of the season and the lowest readings in more than a month with mid and upper 20s likely by morning across the area.

Posted under Lows

As strong Canadian high pressure settles into the region from the north, scouring out our clouds and drawing in some drier air, we’re looking at a perfect situation for a colder night in our area.  In fact, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the majority of our viewing area meaning lows will be around freezing and some locations may drop into the upper 20s, allowing for a hard freeze to affect early spring vegetation.  Here’s the official statement from the National Weather Service:

WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. CONDITIONS LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 TONIGHT...THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED IN THIS AREA. FREEZE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE...
WHICH MAY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATER TODAY IF CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

Some spots, especially low lying areas, will drop into the 20s tonight, meaning some vegetation may be damaged by the cold.

Posted under spring

We are continuing the trend from our extremely mild Winter into the second week of March.  Astronomical Spring arrives in in 10 days, but it will be feeling like spring, and late spring at that before it officially rolls on through.  The jet stream (the dividing line between relatively warm and cold air), like much of the winter, will be staying to our north allowing warm air from the south to hang out in the Upper Midwest.

Jet Stream staying to our north allowing for warm air to stick around

Today (Saturday) temperatures made it into the low 60s for the second time in the last few days.  On average we don’t see 60s until later on in April.  On May 1st the average temperature in Rochester is 62°, so we are about a month and a half ahead of schedule temperature wise.

The average temperature on May 1st is 62°

In the coming days ahead we will likely see temperatures feeling more like the end of May and even early June.  That will no doubt threaten records in a number of locations.  Here are a few that have the potential to fall over the next several days.  These are the records, not the forecast.  To see the seven day forecast check out our website http://www.kttc.com/weather

These are the standing records for a few places that have the potential to be broken this upcoming week.

Posted under climate, history, Records, spring

Spring has certainly been taking its time in showing up this year after our long, cold, and snowy winter.  Our current sunny weather pattern has finally been feeling a little warmer for us as slightly milder air is beginning to flow into the region on the back side of the large area of high pressure that has been instrumental in keeping us dry and sunny for several days now.  However, as we’ve seen a few times this month already, spring will only be here for a brief moment today before a storm system tomorrow brings clouds and unsettled weather for the last day of March.  It looks like March will go out like a lion tomorrow because of the gloomy, damp weather we’re expecting, but nothing too devastating is expected other than a few wet snowflakes mixing with the rain as things cool off in the evening.  April, on the other hand, may be starting out on a wintry note as there will be enough cold air aloft to produce a little snow Friday morning, especially on grassy locations and in the higher ridge tops of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  Only a light “dusting” is expected and anything that fall will likely melt during the day Friday as rain and near 40 degree weather is expected.  It’ll be a great opportunity for Mother Nature to show her sense of humor on April Fool’s Day. 

The latest Climate Prediction Center 30 Day Outlook has us looking pretty cool and brisk through April.The latest Climate Prediction Center forecast for April has our area looking wetter than normal.

The latest Climate Prediction Center forecast has our area looking wetter than normal for April.

 Looking ahead at the longer term weather outlook, we are seeing more of this cool theme where we’re consistently experiencing “retro weather” or weather that would have been typical of a month or season ago.  The month of April, according to the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, is expected to feature cooler than normal temperatures across our area and for the northwestern quarter of the contiguous United States while higher than normal amounts of rainfall will be likely for our area as well.  It even appears that this cool pattern will hold out beyond the upcoming month and through May and June before modifying a bit and becoming more “normal” for the latter portion of summer, so we’re really going to have to be patient if we’re waiting for good local beach weather!  This long term delay in spring and summertime warmth is attributable to a global La Nina pattern in the central Pacific Ocean, the same pattern or “phase” that produced our colder than normal winter, leading to the eighth snowiest season in Rochester’s climate history.  We’ve measured 66.3 inches so far since last fall and 52 inches would be considered average, or typical.

Posted under climate

Well, the verdict is in and we now can officially say that 2010′s version of meteorological spring was the second warmest in history.  The culprit: our friend El Nino.  Here’s a summary from our local National Weather Service office in La Crosse and an explanation of the hows and whys of our incredible spring. 

*One thing to note is that another record has become official as of the end of spring on Monday.  That’s the record for the earliest ever last measurable snowfall in Rochester.  February 23 was the last snowfall measured in Rochester this year and the previous record was March 6th in the winter of 1947-48.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1057 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

…A VERY WARM AND DRY METEOROLOGICAL SPRING IN ROCHESTER MN…

DURING METEOROLOGICAL SPRING /MARCH 1 THROUGH MAY 31/…ROCHESTER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS VERY WARM /SECOND WARMEST – WARMEST SINCE
1977/ AND VERY DRY /SIXTH DRIEST – DRIEST SINCE 1987/.  THE
WEAKENING EL NINO LIKELY HAD A LARGE INFLUENCE ON BOTH OF THESE. 
FINALLY…THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THAT ROCHESTER JUST HAD A TRACE OF
SNOW DURING A SPRING.  SNOW RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1893.  MORE DETAILS
ON THESE STATISTICS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

TEMPERATURES – 2ND WARMEST SPRING

FROM MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 31ST…ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 50.2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS 6.1 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 44.1 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE SECOND WARMEST SPRING.  THE
ONLY OTHER SPRING WHICH WAS WARMER WAS 1977 WHEN THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 52.1 DEGREES.    

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL SPRINGS IN
ROCHESTER MN…

   WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL SPRINGS
         IN ROCHESTER MN
            1886-2010

              AVERAGE
   RANK     TEMPERATURE     YEAR
   —-     ———–     —-
     1      52.1 DEGREES    1977
     2      50.2 DEGREES    2010
     3      49.3 DEGREES    1987
     4      48.8 DEGREES    1985
     5      48.7 DEGREES    1946
     6      47.9 DEGREES    2000
            47.9 DEGREES    1910
     8      47.8 DEGREES    2006
     9      47.7 DEGREES    2007
            47.7 DEGREES    1991

WHY SO WARM THIS SPRING?

THE TEMPERATURES THIS SPRING WERE LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE 2009-2010
EL NINO WHICH WAS THE FOURTH STRONGEST SINCE 1950 /ONLY 1972-73…
1982-83…AND 1997-98 WERE STRONGER – BASED ON THE OCEANIC NINO
INDEX/.  AS TYPICAL…EL NINOS WEAKEN DURING SPRING AND THIS WAS ONE
WAS NO DIFFERENT.  EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING…THEY STILL CAN
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE UPON THE LOCATIONS OF JET STREAMS GLOBALLY. 
IN OUR AREA OF THE WORLD…THESE JET STREAMS TYPICALLY PREVENT THE
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS FROM INVADING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY AND MID SPRING.  THIS WAS VERY MUCH THE CASE THIS
SPRING.  MARCH OF 2010 WAS THE SEVENTH WARMEST /7.7 DEGREES
ABOVE-NORMAL/.  SINCE 1950…TEN OUT OF THE ELEVEN EL NINOS
/90.9 PERCENT/ HAD THEIR MARCH TEMPERATURES AVERAGE ABOVE-NORMAL. 
APRIL OF 2010 WAS THE THIRD WARMEST /8.3 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL/. 
SINCE 1950…SIX OUT NINE EL NINOS /66.7 PERCENT/ HAD THEIR APRIL
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE ABOVE-NORMAL.  THERE ARE TWO LESS EL NINOS IN
APRIL THAN MARCH…BECAUSE THEY HAD ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO BACK TO
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY APRIL.

IN ADDITION TO THIS…THE SPRING WAS ALSO AFFECTED BY THE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  THIS IN TURN HELPS THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL…BECAUSE THE HEATING OF THE
GROUND DOES NOT GO TOWARD EVAPORATION AND INSTEAD GOES TO HEATING
THE AIR NEAR THE GROUND.

MORE TEMPERATURE STATISTICS…

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 60.7 DEGREES.  THIS WAS 7.0 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 53.7 DEGREES.  THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS
39.6 DEGREES.  THIS WAS 5.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 34.4 DEGREES.

THERE WAS TWO 90-DEGREE DAYS THIS SPRING.  ONLY FIVE OTHER YEARS
SINCE 1886 HAVE HAD MORE /1934 WITH 10 DAYS…1980 WITH 4 DAYS…AND
1911…1998…AND 2009 WITH 3 DAYS/.  

THE TABLE BELOW CONTAINS THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AND THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR THE SPRING OF 2010.

           SPRING 2010 TEMPERATURES
               IN ROCHESTER MN

                  AVERAGE            DEPARTURE
   MONTH        TEMPERATURE         FROM NORMAL
   —–        ———–         ———–
   MARCH       38.3 DEGREES        +7.7 DEGREES – 7TH WARMEST
   APRIL       53.0 DEGREES        +8.3 DEGREES – 3RD WARMEST
   MAY         59.1 DEGREES        +2.2 DEGREES

   SPRING      50.1 DEGREES        +6.0 DEGREES

PRECIPITATION – 6TH DRIEST SPRING

FROM MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 31ST…ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
RECEIVED 4.71 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  THIS WAS 3.71 INCHES BELOW
THE SPRING NORMAL OF 8.42 INCHES.  THIS WAS THE SIXTH DRIEST SPRING
AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1987 WHEN 4.43 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL. 
THE DRIEST SPRING EVER RECORDED WAS 3.17 INCHES IN 1910.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS THE TEN DRIEST SPRINGS IN ROCHESTER MN.

               DRIEST SPRINGS
               IN ROCHESTER MN
                  1886-2010

               PRECIPITATION
    RANK           TOTAL            YEAR
    —-        ———–         —-
      1         3.17 INCHES         1910
      2         3.59 INCHES         1934
      3         4.14 INCHES         1972
      4         4.37 INCHES         1948
      5         4.43 INCHES         1987
      6         4.71 INCHES         2010
      7         4.85 INCHES         1943
      8         4.89 INCHES         1939
      9         5.06 INCHES         1958
     10         5.18 INCHES         1932

THERE IS ACTUALLY A STRONG STATISTICAL SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING EL NINO SPRINGS.  DURING THE NINE EL NINO
SPRINGS SINCE 1950…SEVEN OF THEM /77.8 PERCENT/ SAW BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

THE TABLE BELOW CONTAINS THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THEIR
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR THE SPRING OF 2010.

          SPRING 2010 PRECIPITATION
               IN ROCHESTER MN

                PRECIPITATION         DEPARTURE
   MONTH            TOTAL            FROM NORMAL
   —–        ————         ———–
   MARCH        1.05 INCHES         -1.88 INCHES
   APRIL        1.62 INCHES         -1.39 INCHES
   MAY          2.04 INCHES         -1.49 INCHES

   SPRING       4.71 INCHES         -3.71 INCHES

SNOWFALL – LEAST EVER RECORDED DURING A SPRING

FROM MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 31ST…THE SNOW OBSERVER NEAR ROCHESTER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED JUST A TRACE OF SNOW. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS JUST 0.2 INCHES OF SNOW BACK IN 1981. NORMALLY
13.3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS DURING THE SPRING.

……………………………..

…THE ROCHESTER CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
3/1/2010 TO 5/31/2010…

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1886 TO 2010

WEATHER         OBSERVED                                             
                 VALUE   DATE(S)                                     
                                                                     
…………………………..
TEMPERATURE (F)
HIGHEST            94   05/24                                        
LOWEST             11   03/05                                        
AVG. MAXIMUM     60.7                                                
AVG. MINIMUM     39.6                                                
MEAN             50.2                                                
DAYS MAX >= 90      2                                                
DAYS MAX <= 32      0                                                
DAYS MIN <= 32     18                                                
DAYS MIN <= 0       0                                                

PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
TOTALS           4.71                                                
DAYS >= .01        26                                                
DAYS >= .10        14                                                
DAYS >= .50         3                                                
DAYS >= 1.00        0                                                
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL    0.67   MM                                           

SNOWFALL (INCHES)
TOTALS              T                                                
SNOWDEPTH AVG.      1                                                
DAYS >= TRACE       1                                                
DAYS >= 1.0         0                                                
GREATEST
SNOW DEPTH        15                                                
24 HR TOTAL      0.0   MM                                           

DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL    1418                                                
COOLING TOTAL      72                                                
……………………………

WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED              11.2
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION    59/240    DATE  05/04

                                                                   
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                     
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                               
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                      
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                         

$$

BOYNE

Posted under climate, spring

It's been a dry year so far, especially since the beginning of spring in March.

The good news is we’re looking at more of an active weather pattern in the next week with rain chances coming up every other day or so.

Posted under climate