The large storm system that has been keeping things unsettled and stormy for us and really the entire Midwest continues to edge its way eastward toward us, keeping things breezy, humid, and a little damp today.  In the wake of Sunday night’s severe storms that produced heavy rain and strong winds, there are still a number of Flood Warnings in effect for today and even some that won’t expire for a couple of additional days while severe weather remains a concern for us in the short term.  Look for occasional sunshine today that may work to destabilize the atmosphere, settting the stage for some strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.  Right now the biggest concern appears to be damaging wind gusts that may topple or completely uproot trees.  We’ll also have to keep an eye on rainfall amounts as soils are very soggy and can’t hold much more if any additional moisture.  The rainfall from today’s showers doesn’t appear to be as heavy as Sunday’s but even a small dose now would make things worse, so the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the eastern part of our viewing area.  There is also a marginal tornado threat and of course a chance for some hail in some of the stronger storms.

A look at some of the highest rainfall amounts across the area. Rochester received 2.07″ officially Sunday, a record for the date.

The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook places the eastern half of our area in the slight risk category for severe storms today and tonight.

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As promised, today is turning out to be rather summery across the region as gusty south winds behind a warm front are working to push in a little extra heat for us.  High temperatures today will be slightly warmer than normal for the first time in more than a week with readings in the mid 80s expected just about everywhere locally.  The additional warmth and humidity will prime the atmosphere for some thunderstorm activity later tonight as a cold front moves through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  Right now it looks like the best chance for thunderstorms will be after sunset, perhaps closer to midnight for the bulk of the viewing area and yes, there is a chance for some severe storms along this front.  Strong, damaging winds look to be the primary severe weather threat in our area late tonight.  There will be some light showers in the area behind that front with sunshine breaking through late in the morning and prevailing through the afternoon.  Gusty northwest winds tomorrow will usher in much cooler air and some spots may struggle to get to 70° by day’s end.

The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook focuses severe weather potential across our entire region late this evening through tonight as a cold front moves in from the prairies of south central Canada.

There will be an elevated risk of damaging winds tonight in some of our thunderstorms. Gusts may reach or exceed 60mph, possibly knocking down tree branches or power lines.

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The first part of a one-two punch in what looks to be a warm and slightly unsettled weekend weather pattern is moving through the region today.  A storm system along the U.S.-Canadian border is stirring up our winds and producing some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the central Minnesota and in parts of Wisconsin today.  There will be a slight chance that a couple of stray storms may migrate into our local area, especially the northern edge, later today.  Otherwise most of the activity with that storm system will stay away from us while bright sunshine and gusty southwest winds will be the story today with high temperatures expected to be at least 10° warmer than normal for this time of the year as readings will commonly be in the upper 80s to round out the work week.  We’ll get a break from active weather tomorrow as winds will be a bit more tame, the skies will be bright and sunny, and highs will be close to 90°.  The second part of that one-two punch will come along late Sunday as a storm system and its associated cold front will approach the region from the west, drawing in some humidity and extra heat.  We’ll have highs in the low 90s Sunday with a chance for a few late afternoon, but especially evening thunderstorms.  Some of those storms may become severe with large hail and strong winds possible.  That said, rainfall doesn’t look to be tremendously heavy in that scenario and by far the area with highest probability of severe weather will be to our north, but we’ll still have to keep an eye on the situation as large hail and strong winds will be possible in the evening and overnight period Sunday into Monday.  Stay tuned!

Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday: We're facing the prospect of severe weather late Sunday and Sunday night. The SPC has us in the slight risk for severe weather.

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We’re experiencing a one-two punch in our local weather as we approach the weekend.  The first of two storm systems to affect the viewing area is swinging through the Upper Midwest today, spreading clouds and some light rain across the Upper Mississippi Valley.  We won’t see any severe weather from this one, but rather just light rainfall in a couple of showers through the afternoon and early evening.  The second storm system is going to be a much stronger one, having a huge impact on our nation’s weather and our local weekend plans.  Ahead of the second low pressure system tomorrow, we’ll have some breaks in the clouds and a slight south breeze, warming things up and destabilizing the atmosphere.  That will set the stage for a few late day and especially evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which may become severe with large hail and damaging winds and then some locally heavy rainfall in some of the stronger storms.  The best chance for severe weather locally will be after 6:00 PM or so tomorrow and in northern Iowa.  Another round of severe weather is possible Sunday, especially for southeastern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin locally during the afternoon hours.  Large hail, gusty winds, and tornadoes will be possible Sunday until the storm system’s center and cold front associated with it swing through southern Minnesota and then through central Wisconsin.  The best chance for severe storms will be noon to 6:00PM or 7:00PM Sunday.  Rainfall may exceed an inch over the weekend with more rain chances coming up for the second half of next week.

Severe weather outlook for tomorrow, showing the potential for a major tornado outbreak in the southern plains and a few severe storms closer to home in the evening.

Slight risk for severe weather on Sunday featuring the threat for hail, winds, and tornadoes in our area and in central Wisconsin.

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The same storm system that is bringing us thick clouds and light rain across the area today is keeping the heart of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley under the threat of tornadoes and once again.  The same storm system produced 40 tornadoes between Kansas and Texas in addition to countless reports of wind damage and extremely large hail in that region.  Just like yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined part of the Midwest in a High Risk potential for severe weather, meaning another massive outbreak of tornadoes is anticipated.  That High Risk area affects cities such as Memphis, Tennessee, Paducah, Kentucky, and Marion, Illinois.  Surrounding that is a large Moderate Risk area where some Tornado Watches are already being issued for the day.  We’ll certainly be watching this situation through the course of today and hoping for the best possible outcome for those affected by this dangerous weather.

The SPC doesn't often use the High Risk category in its daily severe weather outlooks, but this is the second consecutive day that a large area to our south is being outlined in one.

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Here’s the short & sweet version: Today will be pretty quiet.  It’s not until the late evening and overnight things could get rocky. Your Father’s Day will be spent mostly cloudy, thanks to a cluster of t-showers passing through southern Minnesota. We should see some sun peek out by the afternoon. There’s a front to our south that’ll push northward this evening. Storms in the Dakotas will fire today and race east along that boundary and storms should be arriving late this evening and overnight. Biggest threats: damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Lesser threats locally will be large hail and tornadoes. I’m expecting this activity from the Dakotas to turn into a bowing segment most likely by the time it gets to us. Those are the systems that normally cause the damaging winds (similar to what extreme southeast Minnesota saw on Thursday night). What you can do: We’ll have more on the  NewsCenter at 10pm (sorry, no 5pm today!), KTTC.com, and this weatherblog, twitter, our Facebook page, and you can always sign up for severe weather text alerts at KTTC.com. Later today and overnight will be a great time to have the weather radio working and nearby.

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Posted under severe weather

We’re enjoying a breezy, but gorgeous and comfortable Friday afternoon, featuring sunshine and low humidity.  There will be a slight chance for some late day and evening thunderstorms today, but severe weather doesn’t appear to be a concern for us. 

The next round of thunderstorms in our weather picture may be tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.  There may be some strong to severe storms with large hail and gusty winds in the area later in the day, but heavy rainfall does not appear to be a concern with those storms.  Here’s the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow:

There will also be a good chance for some scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, but widespread severe thunderstorms do not appear likely.  There may be a few brief downpours in some of the stronger storms, but not enough rainfall in those thunderstorms to produce long duration heavy rainfall.

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