Here’s the latest on the potent winter storm that is expected to reach our area for tomorrow and Wednesday:

While there are several things that may change in the next day or so, possibly resulting in an altogether different outcome in our local weather, the current forecast outlook for the next major storm system in our region is looking a little warmer and wetter for us.  The latest forecast data suggests that the storm system moving in for tomorrow and hanging around for most of Wednesday will take a fairly northerly track, keeping us in the “warm sector” where rain, sleet, and freezing rain will be the primary concerns while the heavy snow potential will be confined to weather and northwestern Minnesota and for the eastern Dakotas.  Incidentally, some locations in that part of the region will deal with blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday as winds will then be reaching 40 miles per hour at times.

Right now, we’re expecting light snow or a mixture of freezing rain and snow to develop in the mid morning hours across the area tomorrow, making for a slippery Tuesday.  Snowfall amounts will be generally light tomorrow with little accumulation if any expected.  The freezing rain concerns will last through the afternoon and into the evening when warmer air aloft will allow for soaking cold rains to spread across the area, making it feel more like April than the last full night of February.  The rain is expected to transition to a wintry mixture or some light, wet snow for Wednesday morning and early afternoon on the back side of the storm system, possibly adding up to an inch or so of accumulation before things dry out Wednesday evening.  The greatest threat for extensive icing in this upcoming storm will be through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening when not only will things be hazardous on the roads, but power outages will be possible.  Overall snowfall totals locally, meanwhile, look to be in more of one to three inch range on theMinnesotaside of the border if in fact snow develops long enough for accumulations to occur.  The Twin Cities will likely see slightly higher amounts of snow, depending on the exact storm track and may end up with as much as six inches and as little as a couple of inches.

The current forecast thinking is for a wetter scenario where our area has lower snowfall totals and more rain and possibly ice accretion in store for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted under winter weather

Earlier this month we blogged about a gigantic hailstone that fell in Vivian, South Dakota, and that it may have been the largest ever measured in world history.  Well, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed that it is indeed a record breaker!  Here’s the article:

South Dakota Storm Produces Record Hailstone
 
NOAA’s National Climate Extremes Committee, responsible for validating national weather records, has declared a hailstone found last week in Vivian, S.D., to be the largest in diameter and heaviest ever recovered in the United States.
 
Found after a July 23, 2010, severe thunderstorm by Vivian resident Les Scott, the hailstone is 8.0 inches in diameter and weighs 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches.
These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970. They also surpass the record for diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. The Aurora hailstone still holds the record for circumference of 18.75 inches.
 
 “I’m just glad nobody got hurt and hope the town will recover soon,” Scott said.
 
David Hintz, warning coordination meteorologist at NOAA’s Aberdeen weather forecast office said a local power outage likely led to the hailstone melting some before it could be measured. “Mr. Scott told me the area was littered with large hailstones and the largest had a greater diameter when he first found it. He immediately stored it and several others in his freezer, but a power outage caused some melting.”
After getting Hintz’ notice of a possible record hailstone, personnel at National Weather Service Central Region headquarters in Kansas City, Mo., requested activation of the National Climatic Extremes Committee to examine and judge Scott’s hailstone. Personnel from the Aberdeen office traveled to Vivian to measure and weigh the hailstone, and then turned their findings over to the three-person committee. After a thorough review of the facts, committee members certified its record-breaking status.
 
Information about the National Climatic Extremes Committee and existing weather records may be found at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/ncec.
 
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.

Largest Hailstone Ever Measured

Posted under hail

As of late Wednesday night, severe storms are rolling through the Dakotas and are headed east. All the development has been along and ahead of a cold front that will be into Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon. In southeast Minnesota and north Iowa, we’re looking at a threat of thunderstorms early Thursday if the Dakota storms hold together long enough. Otherwise, strong to severe storms are more likely in the late afternoon to evening hours. At this time, we’ve been stuck in a slight risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center…this may be upgraded Thursday, depending on what happens in the morning hours.

As always, in the event of severe weather, we’ve got everything you need here at kttc.com with the very latest watches and warnings always on display on our home page and weather page. You can also track storms with our Precision Stormtracker Interactive Radar.

Posted under severe weather

While temperatures rolled into record territory for the 2nd day in a row here in Rochester, a bevy of winter storm headlines have been hoisted throughout the Dakotas, including a Blizzard Watch. Ahead of this storm system we’ve felt uncomfortable warmth, and there likely will be some severe thunderstorms throughout the Midwest on Wednesday…especially from southwest Minnesota southward to Oklahoma.

Today’s high in Rochester was 74°, toppling the old high of 72° set back in 1975.  Today’s high also set a record for the warmest Election Day on record in Rochester, MN and La Crosse, WI.

Keep an umbrella on stand-by Wednesday with a slight chance of rain in the morning with an increasing chance of scattered thunderstorms by the late afternoon through the evening hours.  Model data is coming together to show more confidence in much colder, blustery, and even snowy conditions from Friday through Saturday.  At this time, minor accumulations look possible, especially from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Posted under KTTC, severe weather, weather

A snowstorm hit the region.  Yikes.  Click here for more from the NWS La Crosse…

From September 24th through September 26th 1942, an early season winter storm moved through the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi River Valley, and Great Lakes.  This system produced measurable snow across much of western and southern North Dakota; northern and eastern South Dakota; Minnesota; Iowa; Wisconsin; northern half of Illinois; northeast Indiana; Upper Michigan; and northern and southwest Lower Michigan.  In many places of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, this was earliest measurable snow ever recorded.  The highest snowfall total was 9 inches at Sauk Centre.  Parts of northern Missouri saw their earliest traces of snow. 

Posted under severe weather, weather

It may seem as though we’ve dodged a bullet today as storms were quick to develop and move out of the area, but this break from stormy weather should be relatively short-lived.  I hope I’m wrong about that.  We did get reports of dime size hail around Rochester earlier this afternoon, which is below severe levels.

The most ripe area for severe weather is located in extreme southeast South Dakota, southwest Minnesota, western Iowa, and far eastern Nebraska.  There are already storms developing in a line from about Sioux Falls, South Dakota southward to near Lincoln, Nebraska.  This line will be moving eastward through the rest of today and tonight, and there may be fresh development ahead of this line as well.  So far, cloud cover from this morning and from this afternoon’s brief thunderstorms are keeping the atmosphere over southeast Minnesota stabilized, but there is still a warm front draped across southern Minnesota.  There is also a lot more sunshine, humidity, and destabilization occuring to our west and southwest.

Stay tuned to the weather for the rest of this evening and tonight with severe weather possibilities combined with heavy rain and more flooding.  The saving grace to tonight’s rain is that it’s appearing to be a bit more progressive than this past weekend’s event.  In other words, storms should be moving through a bit more quickly.

Posted under KTTC, severe weather, weather

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a PDS Tornado Watch (Particularly Dangerous Situation) for some of the western counties in the viewing area. The watch is in effect until 1:00 a.m. Friday. Emmet, Kossuth, Wright, Hancock, and Winnebago counties in our immediate viewing area are included in this watch. Minnesota counties include Martin and Faribault, and counties not immediately in our viewing area, but close to it, include Blue Earth.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued the PDS watch (different from just a tornado watch) because they are expecting possible large, long-tracked, dangerous tornadoes in and around the watch area, along with very large hail up to baseball size, and destructive winds, along with dangerous lightning. Many dynamics in the atmosphere are coming together this evening and will enhance the severe weather threat. The showers and thunderstorms we are seeing around the area right now is just the first and, if you will, “quieter” round of weather – the stronger storms have still to move into our area.

Remember, however, that tornadoes can occur outside the watch area. We will continue to monitor this situation.

Posted under KTTC, weather

Light to occasionally moderate showers continue across southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin into extreme northeast Iowa.  These continue to move eastward. 

Currently, severe storms are underway in South Dakota, Nebraska, and western Iowa.  There have been reports of tornadoes from Kearney, Nebraska to south of Sioux City, Iowa.

There is now fresh t-storm development in northwest Iowa and we will see more storms developing to our west later this evening.  These storms will lose some intensity as they move eastward into our cooler atmosphere, but there is still a strong wind and heavy rain threat across SE MN, NE IA, and SW WI late tonight.

Please note that with our updated website, all warnings, watches, and advisories are displayed on the home page in a crawl, and on the weather page in an alert box.  Just click on the counties displayed for the details on each alert as issued by the National Weather Service.

Posted under KTTC, weather

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0938 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

          WESTERN IOWA
          EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA
          FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

Posted under weather