Perhaps it’s a new Monday tradition, but for the second time in as many weeks, we’re expecting some snow in our area as a late winter storm system approaches from the west.  While this won’t be a huge event, it is expected to make things a little slippery on our roads and sidewalks and given that this has been such a dry and mild winter, every storm system producing accumulating snow is considered significant.  It looks like we’ll have rain, snow, and even sleet spreading eastward across the local area through the afternoon into the evening.  Late this evening, there will be a transition to mainly just snow, but the overall totals will depend heavily on how quickly things transition to snow.  Temperatures will also be quite warm, just below freezing by tomorrow morning in most spots, meaning a lot of that snowfall will compress to slush or melt off a bit, reducing snowfall amounts.  The snow will continue through the overnight hours and then taper off in the mid morning hours Tuesday with one to three inches likely on the ground by then.

This evening and tonight's snowfall will range from one to three inches. A lot of that will melt to slush tomorrow as highs will be above freezing.

The next storm system to affect us is expected to move in for late Wednesday, starting as a mixture of rain and snow and then changing over to all snow by early Thursday with minor accumulations anticipated.   Light snow or snow showers will linger through Thursday and Friday followed by another storm system that may bring some snow for Sunday and Sunday night with some minor to moderate accumulations possible.  Temperatures will be mild for the first half of the week with a big cool down expected for Friday and the weekend.

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A weak storm system from the west is spreading clouds and light snow across the local area today. This will be a lighter snow event for us than the past two to affect the region last Friday and Monday of this week as only about an inch of accumulation is expected for the most part. The evening commute may be a little tricky because of the potential for a few extra slick spots on the street and highways from the afternoon to early evening snow, but as long as everyone takes their time and expects a slight delay, it shouldn’t be cataclysmic. The heaviest amounts in the region look to accumulate north of Rochester toward the Twin Cities and even north of there as two inches will be possible for some locations in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

Snowfall will occur through the afternoon with a sharp drop off in intensity after sunset. Amounts will be light, with the highest totals to the north.

Behind this storm system we’ll have gusty, colder weather with some sunshine tomorrow and then a chance for a few light snow showers tomorrow night.  Accumulations tomorrow night will be light with less than half an inch expected.  We’ll have chilly sunshine and highs in the teens on Sunday with snow showers and little if any accumulation Monday.  A bigger storm system Tuesday into early Wednesday will bring a mixture of rain and snow and then some light accumulations of snow to the area.  Snow showers and flurries will be possible Thursday and Friday, so it’ll be an active pattern, but generally speaking, only light snow is expected in the next week while high temperatures look to remain quite mild in the longer term as highs will be in the lower and mid 30s from Monday through next Friday.

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A cold front is sweeping through the region today, stirring up some pretty strong northwest winds and spreading a little light snow across the Upper Mississippi Valley as cold air pours in behind it.  Winter weather headlines have been issued by the National Weather Service because of this cold front and the storm system to our east hat will plant itself in the western part of the Great Lakes in the next day or so, producing some accumulating snow for many of us.  Look for a light dusting for this afternoon with less than an inch or so of accumulation through the early evening, but a little more will develop tonight as the storm system to the east begins to get its act together a little more.  Expect an inch or so of accumulation overnight and then periods of light snow through tomorrow with strong winds blowing it around through the day, reducing visibility.  Rochester will receive an inc, perhaps two in the way of snowfall while areas to the west around Albert Lea and Mason City will see less than an inch of accumulation.  To the east, higher amounts will be expected with Winona looking at possibly three or so inches of accumulation and parts of Wisconsin on the east side of the Mississippi expecting four inches or so.  Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for late today, tonight, and much of tomorrow for areas from Rochester to the east as travel conditions may be difficult at times because of the wintry conditions.  If you’re heading to Chicago tomorrow, expect delays as heavier snow will fall through the day and up to six inches of total accumulation is expected.  Here’s a look at local snowfall forecast totals between tonight and tomorrow evening when the snow will taper off locally.

Snowfall forecast through Thursday evening. Blowing snow will create limited visibility and slick spots on local roads and highways through early Friday.

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We’re still closely monitoring a potent storm system that will likely bring our first taste of winter this season, including the first measurable snowfall and the latest data essentially confirms our previous thinking.  Today’s forecast models are continuing to indicate a transition from rain to snow Tuesdya evening with minor slushy accumulations overnight of an inch or two and then some early morning snow for the Wednesday commute before things dry out late in the morning and for the lunch hour.  It still appears that while most of it will melt on paved areas, we’ll likely measure grassy accumulations of two to five inches of heavy, wet snow before things melt away in the late day sun.  Below is one example of what some of the computer output is suggesting:

The latest data looking ahead two days suggests that we'll see two to five inches of snow accumulation. Most will fall late tonight through noon Wednesday.

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The much talked about snow event is here and things are getting rather wintry outside today.  It looks like we’ll be dealing with wet snow through the daylight hours today with a little gradual accumulation on the relatively warm surfaces, especially later in the day and this evening.  As things cool off a bit more tonight, we’ll see a little more in the way of accumulation as temperatures dip slightly below freezing.  A couple of things we’ll be looking for today will be how much the thunderstorm activity to our south in southern Iowa and Illinois robs some of the moisture and possibly affects our local snowfall totals and if some of that instability works its way into the southern part of our local area, possibly producing some convective snow (thundersnow) thereby enhancing the snowfall rates and increasing accumulations.  The way things look right now, Rochester and area to the north will see lighter amounts than along the Iowa border with about 3 or 4 inches at most by tomorrow morning unless some thundersnow develops.  In all reality, because of the warm ground and a southerly storm track that is right now pushing the heaviest snowfall south of the Med City, totals around Rochester, Wabasha, and Zumbrota could be an inch or two because of some of these factors, so it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.  For now, we’ll stick with our 3 to 6 inch forecast with isolated 8 inch totals in areas where thundersnow can develop.  The heaviest snowfall is likely to take place in far southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa and through much of Wisconsin. 

The current snowfall forecast as of Tuesday morning.

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Well it goes without saying that we’ve had our share of snow so far this winter.  To date, Rochester has officially received 59.5″ of snowfall, the most we’ve measured in several years…and it’s not even March yet!  In fact, we may be getting a few more inches before we get to next month as this “active” weather pattern continues to provide us with snow chances for the next few days.  Right now, it looks like we may get some flurries or very light snow showers in southern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight while north Iowa may be in line for an inch or two by sunrise tomorrow, especially south of Decorah and Charles City as one big storm system grazes us to the south.  Another little storm system will bring light snow chances for tomorrow and Saturday with an inch or two for most of us expected between late Friday night and Saturday evening.  The biggest storm on our horizon will brush past us on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  Tha latest data suggests that we may be getting a few inches of snow and sleet late Sunday…and possibly a little freezing rain during the afternoon.  Beyond this weekend, the National Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for March is calling for near normal precipitation, but colder than normal temperatures as our La Nina pattern persists.  Incidentally, the cool stuff may be sticking around through May, making for a potentially chilly spring, but things look to return to normal for the summer.  This isn’t to say we’ll be getting a huge dumping of snow this March, but even if we get just the average 9 inches of snowfall during the month, we may find ourselves in the top ten or even top five list of all-time snowiest winters in Rochester history.  From the looks of things in the next two weeks, this current “active” weather pattern will continue leading to frequent chances of snow or rain…if the models verify that is.  Stay tuned (and keep the shovels handy just in case.)

With a little snow possible this weekend and a potentially "active" March ahead, we may find ourselves in the top 5 of the snowiest winters.

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While we’re enjoying some mild, almost March-like weather today, we still have some wintry weather in the forecast this week, as some colder, almost January weather is expected in the coming days, including the early part of the weekend.  A weak storm system centered to our north today is working to pull in some mild air for us on those gusty south winds with a little sun also helping to keep things rather mild across the local area.  However, after this system passes to our east tonight, we’ll again be dealing with a shot of colder air for a few days.  The jet stream aloft right now is still in what we call an “active pattern” meaning more storm systems than usual are moving through the mid section of the country and we’re getting more precipitation and more of a variety of weather conditions because of this situation.  The next storm system to move in will be Friday.  We’ll have a little light snow moving in for the afternoon and especially the evening hours with that snow lingering through much of Saturday.  Totals will be minor with this system, as only an inch or two of snow is expected.  The bigger concern looks to be Sunday and Sunday night when a large storm system is expected to graze our region to the southeast and depending on how far north it gets will determine how much if any snow we get.  It’s a little early to get too specific, so for now we’re going to say there is a chance for snow Sunday and Sunday night into Monday morning.  We may end up getting several inches or we may miss out on precipitation altogether with this.  One thing seems certain at this point, and that is things will be feeling cooler for most of the next week as colder air will be parked in the Upper Midwest, so even as we head into March next week, our temperatures will still be feeling like February, or in some cases, like January.

We're under an "active" jet stream pattern right now, but the much colder air is still bottled up north.

The jet stream will remain active Sunday as a large trough and area of upper level low pressure will move into the region for the latter portion of the weekend, potentially bringing us some snow.

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The Midwest region is being hit with a one-two punch to start the week as two storm systems affect the region today and tomorrow and then move eastward to pummel the East Coast in the middle of the week.  The first storm is bringing light snow to our local area today and will continue to slowly pile up the accumulations through the daylight hours and then through tonight.  A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for most of our viewing area across northern Iowa and Wisconsin as well as the majority of our southern Minnesota counties.  The exception will be along and west of I-35 where a Winter Storm Warning will be in effect until 6:00 AM Tuesday as totals there will be slightly higher.  Look for 3 to 6 inches of accumulation overall in the Advisory counties, including Rochester, Austin, Mason City, and Decorah with up to 8 or 9 inches in Albert Lea and for locations to the north and northwest toward Mankato.  The first wave will fade away late tonight and move to the east, slowly then merging with a larger, more potent storm that will bring a huge amount of snow to the central part of the Midwest, while we’ll receive only a dusting of an inch or so locally.  Chicago is expecting around 20 inches from this second storm Tuesday through Wednesday along with blizzard conditions as gusts will be up to 40mph, so if you’re heading there or to St. Louis, expect major delays and possibly impassable roads.  We’ll have pretty nasty winds here as well, with gusts reaching 30mph, likely leading to blowing snow and poor visibility tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Here’s a look at the latest snowfall forecast for our local area through tomorrow.

The Midwest snowfall forecast. Areas between St. Louis and Chicago will see 18+ inches of snow while Indianapolis and locations to the south and southwest may have to deal with a nasty ice storm.

The highest amounts of snowfall will be measured in south central Minnesota locally while Rochester is expecting a moderate total of roughly 5 inches by Tuesday afternoon.

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We’ve already broken the record for the most snowfall in a month here in Rochester with 37.8″ measured to this point, but Mother Nature doesn’t seem to be finished producing snow for us just yet.  Another storm system is taking aim on the region, likely affecting us Thursday into Friday morning before clearing out and leaving us dry for the actual holiday weekend.  The latest forecast data suggests that snow will start late tomorrow afternoon and continue through tomorrow night.  The heaviest snowfall is expected to be to our southwest and depending on how much of a drying influence we have from strong high pressure to our northeast, the Rochester area and locations to the east may also be getting in on the act.  Right now, it looks like Mason Ciy, Algona, and Mankato will receive three to five inches of accumulation while Rochester, Austin, Decorah, and Owatonna will expect one to three inches.  Winona and Lake City will likely receive only a dusting to an inch as they’ll be more influenced by the dry high pressure.  Of course, we’ll have to watch this storm a little extra closely as it may affect the travel plans for many people during the pre Christmas Day time period, including Christmas Eve Day (Friday.)  There is a chance that totals may be lower if that high pressure blocks the storm system from reaching farther to the east, but that will have to be something we monitor over the next 24 hours as we get a clearer idea of what will actually transpire.  At any rate, winds will be light during this storm system’s trek through our region, so blowing snow won’t be a concern as in the case of the blizzard that hit us on December 11th and 12th.  Things will likely dry out by Friday afternoon while the rest of the holiday weekend will feature bright sunshine but colder temperatures.

Snowfall outlook for the last two days leading up to Christmas.

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Today’s potent winter storm is certainly creating a lot of buzz in our region as well as at the national level because of all of the controversy surrounding the field conditions for tonight’s Monday Night Football contest between the Viking and Bears at TCF Bank Stadium.  First, the local concerns for us in southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa from today’s storm: A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for the Rochester area and for locations to the north, including the Twin Cities as there is the potential for 6 inches of accumulation by this evening from our Monday snow event.  The Warning continues through tonight and tomorrow, even though the snow itself will probably wind down by 9pm because a transition to freezing drizzle will continue to make travel treacherous.  The threat for freezing drizzle will continue into tomorrow morning with this storm system and the Warning itself runs until noon for most of us.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon tomorrow for locations to the south of Interstate 90 and the Rochester area as these spots will likely receive slightly lower amounts of snowfall…somewhere in the 3-5 inch range.  The heaviest snowfall from this storm will be during the heart of the afternoon with some spots dealing with one inch per hour rates, drastically reducing visibilities for a time.

Snowfall Forecast for Monday.

Now, on to the Monday Night Football aspect of this storm.  The Twin Cities will likely receive from 5 to 8 inches of snow today and this evening with about 6 inches on the ground for kickoff at 7:30.  Much has been talked about the stadium temperatures for this outdoor venue and it appears that this won’t be an especially dire situation for fans and players as readings will be in the 20s through the game with wind chills in the teens.  However, even though temperatures won’t be as cold as once feared, the field surface is sure to be frozen solid and it’ll be fun to see what effect the snow has on the first outdoor home game for the Vikings in almost 30 years.

Tonight's Vikings-Bears Monday Night Football Forecast

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