It’s been a while since we’ve had this much blue sky over us. I hope you’re enjoying it.

^^^^Visible Satellite Picture at 9:02am, Wednesday, May 2nd^^^^

Thanks to southerly winds and this sunshine, temperatures are already warmer out there right now than they were by Noon yesterday.

^^^^9:23am, Wednesday, May 2nd Surface Map^^^^

Our current wind out of the southwest in southern MN certainly doesn’t set the table for much severe weather, but winds will be shifting and will become more southerly through the day. With that said, we’re not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak here in southern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa later today. The bulls-eye for severe weather this afternoon and evening is in western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, although I do expect we’ll have a few severe storms in the mix locally, later today. The SPC has put us in the “Slight Risk” for severe storms, while there is a “Moderate Risk” to our southwest.

So, yes, there is a chance for severe storms, but no, the expectation isn’t for every thunderstorm to go severe, for widespread thunderstorm damage, or for a bevy of tornadoes to form. Simply, we should all be aware of the potential for a few severe storms in the mix of otherwise loud but beneficial, heavy-rainers late today. It is indeed May. This is not “dismissing,” but is simply trying to reinforce the fact we needn’t be expecting Reed Timmer and his merry band of  iron-clad chase chariots to roll into town later today – although they may be within a few hundred miles of us this afternoon.

^^^^Today’s Convective Outlook^^^^

^^^^Probabilities of large hail^^^^

It’s not feeling too muggy out there right now. Dew points in the 55-60 degree range make for noticeable humidity but not uncomfortable. Dew points will increase later today, but we still won’t hit the level of “sticky and uncomfortable,” or “unless you drink a lot of water you’re totally going to pass out after running laps at softball practice.”

Still, there will be ample moisture to feed thunderstorm development later today. The 3 basic ingredients for any storm are moisture, lift, and instability. Winds will increase moisture, sunshine is providing further instability, and a warm front and surface low will provide the lift later today.

So….

One of the bigger questions for the development of thunderstorms, and the potentially more intense thunderstorms, is where a warm front will end up by the late afternoon to early evening.

The converging winds along the front will make for a zone of increased lift and wind shear. This means tornadoes can’t be ruled out from the stronger storms – if they develop. The mere mention of this possibility does not mean we’re summoning Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton to drive 10 hours to catch an EF-5, or for the Robin Hood: Men in Tights guy to inadvertently drive right into a tornado. There is, after all, a fine line of rhetoric in this business.

I’m not finding this morning’s model run to be very helpful in the afternoon placement of aforementioned warm front, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on the surface winds later today.

There’s my morning update. I doubt you’ve made it this far, but if you did – thanks! I’m going back to my coffee now. Enjoy the sunshine!

Posted under Rochester, severe weather, weather

Storms have developed in southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa and are moving eastward. If these storms can maintain their strength and merge into a squall line, we may be looking at stronger storms arriving in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa between 11pm and 2am tonight.

We’ll be watching… Track storms at home with our Interactive Radar.

Posted under severe weather

As of late Wednesday night, severe storms are rolling through the Dakotas and are headed east. All the development has been along and ahead of a cold front that will be into Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon. In southeast Minnesota and north Iowa, we’re looking at a threat of thunderstorms early Thursday if the Dakota storms hold together long enough. Otherwise, strong to severe storms are more likely in the late afternoon to evening hours. At this time, we’ve been stuck in a slight risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center…this may be upgraded Thursday, depending on what happens in the morning hours.

As always, in the event of severe weather, we’ve got everything you need here at kttc.com with the very latest watches and warnings always on display on our home page and weather page. You can also track storms with our Precision Stormtracker Interactive Radar.

Posted under severe weather

This is severe weather awareness week in Minnesota and Iowa. The purpose of this is to educate and prepare everyone for the coming severe weather season. Most of us would like to think we’re pretty well  up to speed on what to expect when it comes to severe weather season. However, it’s a good time to review your plans, especially for those of you with young children. It’s time to go over what you need to do in the case of a severe thunderstorm, flash flood, or tornado and practice those drills with your family.

This Thursday there is a statewide tornado drill being conducted between 1 and 2pm and then again at 6:55pm. This is a great chance to plan and practice your own tornado drill at home! Woo-hoo!

For more information on Severe Weather Awareness Week and the designated topics, visit this site courtesy of the National Weather Service La Crosse.

Posted under severe weather

Most likely not much in the way of severe weather right here in the KTTC area, but a very strong, large storm system is going to bring big change from Idaho to Minnesota late this weekend.

There are Winter Storm Warnings and Watches posted in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas from tonight through Sunday.  The first heavy snow of the season is going to begin striking that region tonight and will really kick-in Saturday for many.  Mountainous regions are going to be in for a few feet of snow by the looks of things.

Here at home, there is the potential for heavy rain Sunday evening through Monday.  The greatest potential for any severe weather looks to be to our west, but I wouldn’t rule out some stronger storms right here at home in that Sunday evening to Monday morning timeframe.  Rainfall amounts will be high for this time of the year, at least the way things are looking to pan out from today’s perspective.

Posted under KTTC, severe weather, weather

Be sure to check out Steph’s story, including video, by clicking here.

Our thanks go to the History Center of Olmsted County for sharing their time, and photos of the 125-year-old disaster.

Before

After

Cascade Park

View from Coles Mill

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, severe weather

Rainfall totals this afternoon and evening in southeast Minnesota ranged from a mere hundredth of an inch to nearly an inch and a half in Rochester at the Silver Creek gauging station.  Click here for the latest rainfall totals.

Pea, dime, and penny sized hail was reported in the Rochester area as well.  Most of the hail reports came from the northeast side of Rochester.  Here is a list of storm reports from this afternoon.  What I found most impressive from today’s rainfall was the rate at which it fell.  Our weather station was registering a rainfall rate of 3.48″ per hour (for about 5 minutes) as we were in the heaviest downpour.  Between 2 and 2:30pm we received 0.81″ here in northwest Rochester.

Posted under KTTC, severe weather

Storm Reports coming in:

9:45 a.m. update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Fillmore and Winona counties until 10:15 a.m..

8:35 a.m. update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Dodge, Mower counties until 9:15 a.m., and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Goodhue county until 9:30 a.m..

8:20 a.m. update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Freeborn county until 9:15 a.m..

8:10 a.m. update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Rice, Steele counties until 9:00 a.m..

8:00 a.m. update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Faribault, Martin counties until 9:00 a.m.. 

7:50 a.m. update: A bow echo (line of severe storms) is moving quickly through west central Minnesota this morning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until noon for the area. This line of storms has produced some very powerful winds as it moved out of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota this morning. Winds to over 70 mph have been reported, taking trees straight down. This line is moving to the east southeast around 35 mph. While damaging winds will be the main threat, hail and torrential rain will also be likely, and we may be looking at some flash flooding concerns as well. Stay tuned….

Posted under KTTC, severe weather, weather

4:55pm Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin until 11pm.  Hail and damaging winds are the primary threat.

There is currently a batch of strong to severe storms from the western Twin Cities metro into western Wisconsin.  There is potential for more storms to develop west and south of the current line of storms, including southeast Minnesota, but so far nothing is making it.  The Storm Prediction Center has said they are monitoring our area for the potential of a severe thunderstorm watch.

Either way, the weak front responsible for the storms to our north will continue to track through the region this evening and high pressure will settle in for at least the majority of Saturday.

Posted under KTTC, severe weather

The chance for any more rain tonight into Friday morning is looking very slim, and if any thunderstorms develop, they’ll remain isolated.  The Flash Flood Watch for southeast Minnesota, north Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin was canceled by the National Weather Service at 8:15pm this evening.  There is still a chance for a few t-storms Friday, but the best chance will remain in central Iowa.

5:10pm Update: New thundershowers are developing along the Iowa/Minnesota border…these are not expected to become severe.

3:45pm Update: Just light rain remains in southeast Minnesota, and the severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled early for all of southeast Minnesota.  There is a chance for rain developing again late this evening and overnight, and while severe weather is not expected with these storms, locally heavy rain and the resulting flooding potential is a concern.

2:50pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Cerro Gordo, Floyd, and Wright counties.  Hail to the size of pennies has been reported and a strong core with large hail is moving toward Charles City, Iowa.

2:20pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cerro Gordo county in Iowa, including Mason City, until 3pm.  Penny size hail has been reported a half mile southwest of Mason City and the storm is moving east at 25mph.  It is looking like rain will wrap-up by 5pm throughout much of southeast Minnesota, but the line in north Iowa will only slowly progress into this evening…increasing the threat of localized flooding.

1:15pm Update: Strong to severe storms are affecting Emmet and Kossuth counties in north Iowa, and the severe t-storm warnings will expire at 1:30pm for those counties.  The threat from these storms (as will be the threat for the rest of today) is strong wind and hail to the size of nickels.  So far, actual severe reports have been very limited.

Heavy rain and potential flash flooding will be the greatest concern for the rest of today and tonight.

Posted under KTTC, severe weather