Posted under Viewer Pics

It’s been a while since we’ve had this much blue sky over us. I hope you’re enjoying it.

^^^^Visible Satellite Picture at 9:02am, Wednesday, May 2nd^^^^

Thanks to southerly winds and this sunshine, temperatures are already warmer out there right now than they were by Noon yesterday.

^^^^9:23am, Wednesday, May 2nd Surface Map^^^^

Our current wind out of the southwest in southern MN certainly doesn’t set the table for much severe weather, but winds will be shifting and will become more southerly through the day. With that said, we’re not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak here in southern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa later today. The bulls-eye for severe weather this afternoon and evening is in western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, although I do expect we’ll have a few severe storms in the mix locally, later today. The SPC has put us in the “Slight Risk” for severe storms, while there is a “Moderate Risk” to our southwest.

So, yes, there is a chance for severe storms, but no, the expectation isn’t for every thunderstorm to go severe, for widespread thunderstorm damage, or for a bevy of tornadoes to form. Simply, we should all be aware of the potential for a few severe storms in the mix of otherwise loud but beneficial, heavy-rainers late today. It is indeed May. This is not “dismissing,” but is simply trying to reinforce the fact we needn’t be expecting Reed Timmer and his merry band of  iron-clad chase chariots to roll into town later today – although they may be within a few hundred miles of us this afternoon.

^^^^Today’s Convective Outlook^^^^

^^^^Probabilities of large hail^^^^

It’s not feeling too muggy out there right now. Dew points in the 55-60 degree range make for noticeable humidity but not uncomfortable. Dew points will increase later today, but we still won’t hit the level of “sticky and uncomfortable,” or “unless you drink a lot of water you’re totally going to pass out after running laps at softball practice.”

Still, there will be ample moisture to feed thunderstorm development later today. The 3 basic ingredients for any storm are moisture, lift, and instability. Winds will increase moisture, sunshine is providing further instability, and a warm front and surface low will provide the lift later today.

So….

One of the bigger questions for the development of thunderstorms, and the potentially more intense thunderstorms, is where a warm front will end up by the late afternoon to early evening.

The converging winds along the front will make for a zone of increased lift and wind shear. This means tornadoes can’t be ruled out from the stronger storms – if they develop. The mere mention of this possibility does not mean we’re summoning Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton to drive 10 hours to catch an EF-5, or for the Robin Hood: Men in Tights guy to inadvertently drive right into a tornado. There is, after all, a fine line of rhetoric in this business.

I’m not finding this morning’s model run to be very helpful in the afternoon placement of aforementioned warm front, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on the surface winds later today.

There’s my morning update. I doubt you’ve made it this far, but if you did – thanks! I’m going back to my coffee now. Enjoy the sunshine!

Posted under Rochester, severe weather, weather

A warm front will be surging through north Iowa and into southern Minnesota tonight. Highs are expected to be some of the warmest yet so far this season through Wednesday. That’s not saying much considering how cool it’s been the last 6 weeks, but our atmosphere will definitely be more unstable over the next 48 hours than it’s been in about a month — since strong storms affected north Iowa and central Wisconsin.

I don’t expect storms to be scattered and widespread in southeast Minnesota Tuesday, but I do expect an isolated severe storm or two to develop close to home late Tuesday afternoon or evening. As of 11pm Monday evening, southeast MN was in a slight risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center…rightfully so, I believe with a highly unstable (but tightly capped) atmosphere and a warm front set up close to us. The parent storm system and cold front will move closer to us Wednesday through Thursday and will increase the chance for more widespread storms, some severe. I’ll get more details up on this Tuesday morning, but for now: warm, humid air returns Tuesday, we’ll get plenty of sunshine through most of Tuesday, and storms may develop later in the day followed by more likely t-storms Wednesday and Thursday.

————————————

Select rainfall totals from this morning’s line of strong storms as reported to the NWS La Crosse office.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
942 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2011

...24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...

LOCATION                   RAINFALL    TIME     LAT/LON

IOWA

...ALLPMAKEE COUNTY...
DORCHESTER HIGHWAY 76      0.85        0900 PM  43.42N 91.51W
ION                        0.43        0900 PM  43.11N 91.27W
HARPERS FERRY              0.30        0900 PM  43.17N 91.24W

...CHICKASAW COUNTY...
IONIA                      0.63        0900 PM  43.03N 92.50W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
MCGREGOR                   0.44        0900 PM  43.02N 91.17W
MARQUETTE                  0.40        0900 PM  43.04N 91.21W
ELKADER                    0.30        0900 PM  42.84N 91.40W
LITTLEPORT                 0.06        0900 PM  42.75N 91.37W
GARBER                     0.02        0900 PM  42.74N 91.26W

...FAYETTE COUNTY...
ELDORADO                   0.58        0900 PM  43.05N 91.81W
OELWEIN AWOS               0.10        0900 PM  42.68N 91.97W

...FLOYD COUNTY...
CHARLES CITY AWOS          0.56        0900 PM  43.07N 92.61W
CHARLES CITY CEDAR RVR     0.41        0900 PM  43.06N 92.67W

...WINNESHIEK COUNTY...
BLUFFTON                   1.05        0900 PM  43.41N 91.90W
DECORAH-UPPER IOWA RVR     0.91        0900 PM  43.30N 91.80W
DECORAH AWOS               0.78        0900 PM  43.28N 91.74W

MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
DODGE CENTER AWOS          0.64        0900 PM  44.03N 92.83W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
CARIMONA                   1.07        0900 PM  43.66N 92.15W
LANESBORO                  0.96        0900 PM  43.72N 91.97W
PRESTON AWOS               0.50        0900 PM  43.68N 92.18W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
MOUND PRAIRIE              0.80        0900 PM  43.78N 91.45W
BROWNSVILLE                0.77        0900 PM  43.70N 91.27W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN-TURTLE CREEK        1.06        0900 PM  43.67N 92.95W
AUSTIN 3S                  0.92        0900 PM  43.62N 93.00W
LANSING                    0.92        0900 PM  43.75N 92.95W
AUSTIN AWOS                0.66        0900 PM  43.67N 92.93W

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
DOVER                      0.94        0900 PM  44.01N 92.11W
ROCHESTER BELTLINE         0.83        0900 PM  43.91N 92.50W
ROCHESTER - BEAR CREEK     0.82        0900 PM  43.92N 92.48W
ROCHESTER - SILVER CREEK   0.70        0900 PM  44.03N 92.42W
ELBA                       0.15        0900 PM  44.05N 92.05W

...WABASHA COUNTY...
KELLOGG                    0.97        0900 PM  44.32N 92.00W
LAKE CITY                  0.41        0900 PM  44.45N 92.26W

...WINONA COUNTY...
DAKOTA                     0.78        0900 PM  43.92N 91.37W
ALTURA                     0.64        0900 PM  44.15N 92.01W
WINONA AWOS                0.56        0900 PM  44.08N 91.70W

WISCONSIN

...BUFFALO COUNTY...
MONDOVI                    0.99        0500 PM  44.56N 91.67W

...CLARK COUNTY...
NEILLSVILLE 1W             0.90        0900 PM  44.56N 90.61W

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
STEUBEN                    0.30        0900 PM  43.18N 90.87W

...GRANT COUNTY...
BOSCOBEL ASOS              0.18        0900 PM  43.16N 90.68W
BOSCOBEL RAWS              0.17        0900 PM  43.15N 90.68W
PLATTEVILLE AWOS           0.02        0900 PM  42.69N 90.44W
BURTON                     0.01        0900 PM  42.72N 90.82W
ROCKVILLE                  0.01        0900 PM  42.73N 90.64W

...JACKSON COUNTY...
BLACK RIVER FALLS          0.50        0900 PM  44.38N 90.84W

...JUNEAU COUNTY...
NECEDAH 1W                 0.67        0900 PM  44.02N 90.08W
NECEDAH 5WNW               0.65        0900 PM  44.06N 90.17W

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
LA CROSSE ASOS             0.78        0900 PM  43.88N 91.26W

...TAYLOR COUNTY...
LUBLIN DIPMOND LAKE        0.87        0900 PM  45.11N 90.69W

...VERNON COUNTY...
READSTOWN                  1.15        0900 PM  43.45N 90.76W
HILLSBORO                  1.03        0900 PM  43.65N 90.33W
ONTARIO                    0.85        0900 PM  43.72N 90.59W

Posted under rainfall amounts, severe weather

Slight risk for severe weather Monday

Our entire area (as of tonight) is under a slight risk for severe weather on Monday. Here’s my thinking behind this:

1) The bulk of the day will be dry as we should be capped – a warm front will hang out to our north tomorrow. South winds south of the warm front will try to bring moisture and warmth to the area. Look for highs (if we see enough sun) to hit the mid/upper 70s. More clouds will keep temps in the low 70s and also limit severe weather. How much moisture will return is also in question. Less moisture = not a lot of oomph for severe weather.

2) The low pressure track will come across southern Minnesota late Monday. So, although there may not be a ton of moisture or instability, there will be plenty of spin (or, shear, if you will) in the atmosphere. Storms love shear.

3) It will be windy later Monday and overnight into Tuesday. Tuesday, btw, will be cooler and cloudy. Ah yes, a perfect fall feel: cue the Back To School music!

Stay tuned for any development on Monday. Labor Day WON’T be a washout, and we very well may be able to squeak by dry the entire day. But just incase – and if you’re outside tomorrow – have a means of getting weather info handy.

Enjoy your Labor Day!

Posted under Holidays, severe weather

After this mornings dangerously strong thunderstorms, there is the potential for more severe weather this afternoon and evening. Of even greater concern is the possibility of flooding. Parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin are already saturated from this morning’s heavy rainfall. Of most concern is Wabasha county where over 4″ of rainfall came down in spots, and most of the county received over 2″ of rain this morning.

Here is a look at the latest Severe Thunderstorm Watch which is in effect until 10pm this evening.

 There is also a Flash Flood Watch in effect through the rest of our Friday throughout southeast Minnesota, much of Iowa and much of Wisconsin. If you live in a flood prone area, be sure you have a plan to evacuate and reach higher ground in the event of heavy rainfall in your watershed today.

We will do our best to provide as many updates as possible here on the blog, on our KTTC Precision Forecast Center facebook page, and on twitter. Our first priority, however, is on-air on KTTC, where you will see updates on severe weather warnings and watches first. We will do our best to keep you updated on all fronts.

In all seriousness and without trying to raise undue alarm, the flooding potential is indeed a dangerous situation. Any additional, heavy rainfall could make for a dangerous mess of some river valleys which have already received heavy rainfall. Stay tuned to the very latest and keep an eye on where the bulk of rain is falling if you live in a flood prone area.

Posted under flooding, severe weather

In a nutshell, the setup for severe weather is looking ripe across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin Wednesday.

An unseasonably strong disturbance in the jet stream is going to be moving across the far northern United States Wednesday. In response, an area of low pressure and cold front will move out of the Dakotas and through Minnesota over the course of the day.

There is plenty of moisture in place ahead of the front. This will combine with strong shear in the atmosphere (thanks to the previously mentioned upper level storm system) to make for a primed setup for severe weather. Shear is the turning of the winds with height.  Wednesday’s winds at the surface will be out of the south. Way up in the jet stream, winds will be out of the west-southwest and nearing 100mph. This change in wind speed and direction (shear) will aid in the development of large, possibly rotating, thunderstorms.

Timing of storms is still questionable. It looks, to me, like the window for storms is a fairly big one, with a chance from 11am through 8pm. Mostly likely time frame is 2-5pm, but that could change on a whim and we’ll be on top of it Wednesday.

Stay tuned to the weather Wednesday. The latest watches and warnings will be displayed as soon as they’re issued, on-air on KTTC. We also have those headlines here at KTTC.com. While you’re there, you can check out Interactive Radar and track storms at home or work.

Posted under severe weather

The best chance of any t-storms will be west of I-35 overnight. At this time (10:30 pm) there isn’t a watch locally, and I’ll update this if that changes. Some of those storms, if they do hold together, could produce some gusty winds and small  hail, along with heavy rain.

There is a threat for strong to severe storms on Sunday, but if we see enough cloud cover remaining in the morning, it will squander severe weather chances. If storms do turn strong to severe, the biggest threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

Enjoy a quiet (and more comfy!) dose of weather for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday/Thursday could bear some watching for severe weather, if all pans out the way it’s looking.

Posted under weather

12:15 am: The heaviest of the line is pushing into western Wisconsin, and working through NE Iowa.
Heavy rain with possible flash flooding will be a concern with the rest of the line and the rain behind it. We do have a Flash Flood Watch up through Sunday morning, and several counties are under Flash Flood Warnings.

Earlier:

Severe T-Storm Watch until 3 AM

More severe weather is anticipated today. Here’s the latest details:

What: Severe T-Storm Watch until 3 AM

Where: Our entire viewing area

Why: Line of storms heading into our area from the west. Large hail, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall will be likely will any of the severe storms.

Earlier updates:

Tornado Watch until 8pm

What: Tornado Watch until 8 pm; Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning

Who: The Tornado Watch stretches from the counties of Rice (MN) straight south to Franklin (IA) and points west.

The Flash Flood Watch is for the entire area.

Why: Warm front near Iowa/Minnesota border; approaching area of low pressure from the west. Daytime heating causing ripe atmosphere for storms to erupt. Also, high dew points will lead to potential for heavy rainfall.

When: Activity is expected later this evening and overnight.

Stay tuned!

Posted under Uncategorized

10:00pm: This’ll be my last update on here tonight. The tornado watch is being chopped back as the line of severe storms pushes through northern Iowa. The worst is over, and look for this activity to be out of the entire area by midnight, 1 am or so.

9:45pm: New T-Storm Warnings:

9:15pm: New T-Storm Warning for Cerro Gordo, Franklin counties

9:00pm: New T-Storm Warning for Floyd & Mitchell counties

8:45pm: New Tornado Warning for Cerro Gordo and Worth counties

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CERRO GORDO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...
  WORTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHWOOD...OR 32 MILES
  NORTH OF MASON CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTHWOOD...MANLY...HANLONTOWN...KENSETT...MASON CITY AIRPORT...
  GRAFTON...PLYMOUTH AND ROCK FALLS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 196 AND 218.

8:30pm: Tornado warnings continue for Freeborn, Faribault, Blue Earth, and Steele.

New Severe T-Storm warning for some of our Iowa counties:

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HANCOCK…NORTHERN CERRO GORDO…KOSSUTH…WINNEBAGO AND WORTH
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT…

AT 827 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL…AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF NORTHWOOD TO 20
MILES NORTHWEST OF BANCROFT…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  NORTHWOOD…LAKE MILLS…BUFFALO CENTER…BANCROFT…MANLY…FOREST
  CITY…RAKE…SCARVILLE…LEDYARD…SWEA CITY…LAKOTA…
  THOMPSON…JOICE…KENSETT…FENTON…LELAND…GRAFTON…LONE
  ROCK…HANLONTOWN AND FERTILE.

7:20 pm: Tornado warnings for Goodhue County  & Severe T-Storm Warning for Wabasha & Buffalo

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
  NORTHEASTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…
  SOUTHERN PIERCE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…
  SOUTHWESTERN PEPIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 713 PM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR HAGER
  CITY…OR OVER HAGER CITY…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
  ESDAILE…
  BAY CITY…
  MAIDEN ROCK…
  FRONTENAC…
  PLUM CITY…
  STOCKHOLM…
  PORCUPINE…
  PEPIN…
  ELLA…

7:15pm: For the Austin/Albert Lea area and west: We’re closely watching an intense cell that’s heading into Waseca County, along with a developing line that stretches back to the west from there. That stuff looks like it’s going to head toward the Albert Lea/Austin area in the next hour or so. We have had a confirmed tornado near New Ulm with that monster of a cell.

Folks further east (east of I-35): We’re also watching a powerful line of severe storms heading south out of the Twin Cities. We have heard of wind gusts close to 70 mph and hail out of that.

Stay tuned.

Warm, humid air, numerous surface boundaries, and a mid-upper level disturbance spinning our way from the Dakotas are combining to make for a volatile atmosphere over southern Minnesota and north Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch until Midnight because of the severe weather threat. More to come as the day progresses…

Posted under severe weather

April 29th Slight Risk

The potential for severe weather exists for us both Thursday and Friday. The biggest threats right now would appear to be damaging winds, and large hail.

Here are some graphics from the Storm Prediction Center – Thursday and Friday’s outlook. You can click here to be taken to the SPC’s Outlook page.

April 30th Slight Risk

Posted under severe weather