For the first time this year we’re basking in the warmth of 60 degree heat across the area thanks to the passage of a warm front through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  This surge of warmer air is associated with a change in the upper level wind pattern, or jet stream, that is now buckling northward, working to bottle up the cold, Canadian air that has been around here for ages north of the border for a change.  The weekend will feature bright sunshine and high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s across our area which is a little warmer than normal for a change. 

The jet stream is beginning to lift tio the north, allowing warmer air to blow into the region.

The jet stream over the weekend will be well north of our area. Warm, May-like weather will dominate the scene.

A slow moving storm system will move in from the west early next week, bringing some scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to the region while temperatures remain fairly mild for Monday and Tuesday.  By midweek, the jet stream will buckle back southward as an upper level low develops, setting the stage for a long stretch of potentially cool and showery weather that may last from Wednesday through the following weekend.  While it may not rain the whole time, there looks to be a chance for shower activity and slightly cooler than normal weather for that period of time.

Cool, damp weather may move in for the second half of the upcoming week as the jet stream shifts south for a while. Not unusual at all for May, however.

Posted under weather

We’ve been dealing with some nasty, raw, rainy weather today and it’s only going to get more unpleasant and more difficult to deal with over the next couple of days thanks to the arrival of a large, dynamic storm system from the west.  We’ve already been inundated with rain from this system today and will continue to experience light to moderate rainfall through the afternoon and evening.  Because of the heavy rainfall earlier today and concerns with heavy runoff from these showers, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch effective until 7:00 PM Thursday for a large portion of our viewing area.

Up to three inches of total rainfall may fall this week in the affected counties, causing localized flooding.

the next phase of this storm system will be a gradual transition to winter weather late tonight through Wednesday and Thursday.  We’ll first see a transition from rain to freezing rain late tonight into early Wednesday morning with some ice accumulation possible, especially on tree branches and power lines.  By midday and afternoon Wednesday, it looks to eb a light rain event for most of us.  There will be another changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and light snow Wednesday night with mainly snow falling by Thursday morning.  During the day Thursday three to six inches of snow may accumulate in southeastern Minnesota with heavier amounts to the north and northwest in the Twin Cities area and western Minnesota where six to twelve inches will be possible.  Locations along the Iowa border and in northern Iowa itself can expected three inches or less by the time the snow tapers off Thursday evening.

Those in the Winter Weather Advisory can expect freezing rain at times Tuesday night, through parts of Wednesday, and Wednesday night, and then three to six inches of snow Thursday. Areas south of the Winter Weather Advisory will see lighter amounts.

Posted under flooding, winter weather

It’s April, we just had a couple of days in the 50s, we’ve turned the corner right?  Wrong!  Winter looks like it is going to make a late season push during the middle of the week.  Rain chances and even an outside chance for a rumble of thunder come into play late Sunday and especially overnight into Monday.  Rain will continue in waves on and off through Wednesday.  Over the next 48 hours, some places could approach or exceed an inch of rainfall.  With some frost still in the ground, minor river flooding could occur over the next few days.

By Wednesday afternoon much cooler air will interact with this large storm system.  Snow will likely mix with rain for a while, but it looks as if the air will be cold enough Wednesday night through Thursday to support all snow.  Now the ground is warmer and the sun angle is getting higher every day, two things that will work against the snow accumulating, but with that said, it hasn’t been real warm yet as we know.  With that said, the chance for us to bust out the shovels yet again will be there from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.  This could change depending on the track so stay tuned.

The dip in the Jetstream will supply the storm with cold air.  Here’s how it may look Tuesday evening.  We will be under the gun for rain and possibly thunder as the Dakotas will be receiving snow.  The colder air will affect us on Wednesday.

It is still way to early to talk totals as late and early season snowfalls are difficult to pin down due to so many factors working against it.  As it looks now though, the air will be cold enough to support snow.  Stay tuned for the latest on a very active weather week!

Posted under winter, winter weather

We’re in the midst of a very slow warming trend that is going to take us close to the seasonal averages in terms of temperatures in the region over the next few days.  Sunshine and south winds today are working to push the mercury up into the 40s this afternoon for the first time in the young month of April and it looks like a shift in our overall pattern will keep that type of temperature scheme around into the weekend.   A weak cold front will move in from the northwest late tonight and early tomorrow, bringing some sprinkles or brief, light showers, but nothing too unusual is expected.  The upper air pattern will begin to make that change this weekend as the jet stream sinks southward in the western part of the country and will begin to send pieces of energy in the form of a couple of storm systems northeastward into our region.  The end result will be a series of rain chances along with more seasonably mild weather for the weekend and most of next week.  High temperatures look to reach into the 40s to near 50 degrees through the upcoming week, just a few degrees shy of what we consider to be normal for this time of the year.

Rain chances will spread northeastward across the region Friday night and Saturday and then again late Sunday night into Monday and during the day Tuesday.

Posted under spring

We’ve been having weather Deja Vu recently as active weather continues to visit the Upper Midwest.  Last week we were talking heavy snow, this week, heavy rain.  Heavy rain will be the main threat as much of this rain will run off into creeks and streams thanks to the frozen ground and thick snow pack.  Of other concern with the heavy rain,  storm drains may be covered from the rounds of snow we have received lately.

Heavy rain won’t be the only issue over the weekend.  We could see everything from freezing rain, rain, sleet, and snow.  We will break those precip types down in order of appearance.

Freezing rain will be possible late Friday night through early Saturday morning.  The thing with this is that air temperatures will probably be above freezing, but ground surfaces will likely be below freezing.  The rain falling initially will have a chance to freeze on contact creating icy spots on roads and sidewalks.  Good news with this is that we aren’t expecting widespread effects from any icing.  Any ice that does accumulate, and it will be minimal at best, will melt quickly as warmer air surges north.  Do use caution traveling at late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

That warmer air will cause the precip to remain as mainly rain for the remainder of Saturday and the 1st half of the overnight.  As mentioned above, we could see some localized flooding thanks to runoff.  Ice jamming may also be a possibly a on area rivers so be on the lookout this weekend.  In spots, up to or an exceeding an inch of rain is likely.  This rain could be heavy at times and we may even hear a rumble of thunder or two.  Here is our current rain Futurecast run.

With all of this moisture, dense fog will also be possible over the weekend.  Early Sunday morning, colder air will enter the storm and that will cause the rain to change over to some sleet and eventually snow.  The snow could provide us the chance to have to shovel a little bit.

The track of this system is being watched closely.  If colder air gets into the system earlier, this forecast will change.  We will pin down the snow side of things over the weekend.  Here’s a general look at what could happen early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  At this time, 1-3″ of snow looks possible from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

This is a complex messy storm.  We will have the latest over the weekend on the NewCenter.

Posted under weather, winter weather

 Snow lovers rejoiced last week when we registered the greatest snowfall in a couple of years in our area with 5 to 8 inches measured in most parts of southeastern Minnesota, but not everybody shared that sentiment. There are a lot of people who are thinking ahead to warmer days and hoping for a little bit of spring the air and have even asked if there are any signs that a patten shift is a ahead that could bring such a change in our weather. This time around, that actually does not look to be the case.  Unlike last year and even 2010, two of the past three years that have featured an early arrival of spring, our pattern right now look to remain cool, mostly gray, and just a little snowy, or potentially snowy. As we approach the first of March which is the beginning of “meteorological spring” our average highs climb above freezing and in March typically make their way quickly into the mid 30s and then 40s. Our curent trend looks to feature close to normal if not slightly below normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks as a northwesterly flow looks to dominate the upper levels of the atmosphere, keeping things chilly and kind of February-like. Currently there are only a couple of chances of light snow in the forecast, one Tuesday night into Wednesday and another next Monday, but this type of pattern may keep those little doses of snow around off and on for a while with extra clouds around few signs of spring-like sunshine and full scale melting. The overall outlook for March from the Climate Prediction Center is for warmer than normal temperatures and wetter than normal weather for March, but the latest first half outlook keeps things cooler than normal and drier than normal. Maybe that means the second half will be a whole lot warmer, or maybe the monthly outlook is just wrong (that wouldn’t be the first time!) Anyway, the gist of the story here is that we’ll have to be patient while waiting for spring’s arrival and maybe enjoy the snow we have on the ground.

The Climate Center’s outlook for March calls for an increased chance for warmer than normal temperatures in the month.

The Climate Center’s current outlook for March calls for a wetter than nornal month.

Posted under climate

A significant shift in our weather pattern is bringing some unseasonably warm air into the region this week.  Right now it looks like we have five solid days of 30 degree weather in store for just about the entire area as the jet stream begins to lift to the north allowing some of that warmth in.  While this mild spell is going to make venturing outside a little more comfortable for us, it’s also eat into our snowpack a little, especially on Thursday when rain seems very possible across the area.  Rochester, for instance, currently has an official snow depth of 4 inches and right now it seems like the majority of that may be washed away by the weekend.  Look for highs in the low to mid 30s from today through Friday with sunshine and gusty winds through Wednesday followed by a little light rain during the day Thursday and mixed rain and snow showers Thursday night through part of Friday.  There is a chance that we may get some of that snow back Saturday as a storm system moves in from the southwest, but the track of that storm is very uncertain and it’s entirly possible that we may miss out on the whole thing.  Colder air will return Saturday and linger through all of next week, with or without snow on the ground.

Warm air is surging northward, bringing us a taste of early March weather this week.