Snow lovers rejoiced last week when we registered the greatest snowfall in a couple of years in our area with 5 to 8 inches measured in most parts of southeastern Minnesota, but not everybody shared that sentiment. There are a lot of people who are thinking ahead to warmer days and hoping for a little bit of spring the air and have even asked if there are any signs that a patten shift is a ahead that could bring such a change in our weather. This time around, that actually does not look to be the case.  Unlike last year and even 2010, two of the past three years that have featured an early arrival of spring, our pattern right now look to remain cool, mostly gray, and just a little snowy, or potentially snowy. As we approach the first of March which is the beginning of “meteorological spring” our average highs climb above freezing and in March typically make their way quickly into the mid 30s and then 40s. Our curent trend looks to feature close to normal if not slightly below normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks as a northwesterly flow looks to dominate the upper levels of the atmosphere, keeping things chilly and kind of February-like. Currently there are only a couple of chances of light snow in the forecast, one Tuesday night into Wednesday and another next Monday, but this type of pattern may keep those little doses of snow around off and on for a while with extra clouds around few signs of spring-like sunshine and full scale melting. The overall outlook for March from the Climate Prediction Center is for warmer than normal temperatures and wetter than normal weather for March, but the latest first half outlook keeps things cooler than normal and drier than normal. Maybe that means the second half will be a whole lot warmer, or maybe the monthly outlook is just wrong (that wouldn’t be the first time!) Anyway, the gist of the story here is that we’ll have to be patient while waiting for spring’s arrival and maybe enjoy the snow we have on the ground.

The Climate Center’s outlook for March calls for an increased chance for warmer than normal temperatures in the month.

The Climate Center’s current outlook for March calls for a wetter than nornal month.

Posted under climate

For the past few days we’ve been closely watching a potent storm system to our west that first affected us by kicking up some strong winds, and now is producing showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The severe weather from this storm system last night was just to our north and west and today it looks like the severe weather potential will be centered on the heart of our area.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk of severe weather today from “Slight Risk” to “Moderate Risk” meaning there’s a higher probability of a sizable outbreak of severe weather, possibly involving some tornadoes.  The best chance for this to occur locally is between 2:00 and 6:00 this afternoon as the cold associated with the upcoming storm system pushes through the area.  We’ll have gusty south winds ahead of the front that will occasionally reach 40 miles per hour, especially in the eastern portion of our local area and then those winds will turn to the west behind the front later today, diminishing only after sunset this evening and later tonight.  Here’s the SPC outlook:

Southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and a large portion of Wisconsin have been placed in the Moderate Risk for severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Posted under severe weather

Today’s gray, cool, and damp weather is very typical for this time of the year as we get a taste of both winter and spring in the air and temperatures are in the 30s across the area.  You might say this is the quintessential early March day that is featuring snow, sleet, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and even a little rain and from the looks of things we may be having to get used to weather like this over the next few days because it’ll likely be around for much of the next week at least.  That’s not to say we won’t be getting any shovelable snow in the future, but rather a chance for occasional transitions between these precipitation types that in some cases may result in a little snow and then others that will just be gray and murky. 

A look ahead at the typical month of March shows that from now to the end of the month we’ll add on 85 minutes of daylight, the majority of which will occur in the afternoon and evening because of Daylight Saving Time that will push our clock ahead an hour on Sunday the 13th.  The chart below shows how much we typically warm up through the course of the month and how much longer the days will be getting.  Snowfall for the month can come in spurts or heeps as we all know and the average for the entire month is 9 inches, but that amount hasn’t been reached since 2008.  The official outlook for this month still appears to be cool and wet with higher than average snowfall very possible. 

The typical month of March features a sizeable warm up from beginning to end and an addition of more than an hour of daylight.

Posted under climate

We’ve experienced two very different months to start the winter of 2010-2011 with record setting snowfall in December followed by below average snowfall (so far) in January.  Now, according to the latest outlook issued yesterday by the National Climate Prediction Center, we may be continuing our current weather pattern into February.  So far this month, the jet stream has been bringing us primarily minor “clipper” systems from western Canada that have yielded frequent, but rather small doses of snowfall for us.  Snowfall amounts this month have been what might be considered light to moderate with only 7.0 inches recorded in Rochester officially, which three and a half inches below average for the month to this point.  The current forecast for the final few days of the month has us receiving perhaps another couple of inches of fresh snow, so it seems we’ll end the month quite a bit shy of the foot or so of snowfall we typically get in what is usually the snowiest month of the year.  Temperatures this month, in the meantime, have been colder than normal with an average high of 17.7° so far in Rochester.  That’s exactly 2° below normal up to this point while lows have been a couple of degrees below normal with just 1.5° being the average to this date in the month.

The Climate Center’s outlook for February keeps us in a cooler than normal pattern, while precipitation will be too close to call right now and may very well be near the 10 or 11 inches of snowfall we typically get in the month.

The temperature outlook for February 2011.

The precipitation outlook for February 2011. It looks like we'll have equal chances of wetter or drier than normal weather, but snowier than normal weather appears to be nearby.

Posted under winter weather

We continue our first week of January today with some sunshine and a taste of arctic air in the region under some Canadian high pressure.  In very January-like fashion, we’re likely going to keep our wind chills below zero all day long while high temperatures will struggle to reach double digits above zero.  Looking at Rochester’s January climate statistics, January as you probably know, is the coldest month of the year starting the year with an average high of 20°, then dipping to 19° for 10 days in the middle of the month before climbing to 22° on the 31st.  January is the snowiest month of the year typically, with an average of 11.9″ accumulating during the month.  It’s also the driest month of the year in terms of overall precipitation with 0.94″ measured on average.

Our average temperatures don't fluctuate much during the month of January, but the amount of daylight will increase by 47 minutes between today and the end of the month.

Posted under climate

Posted under severe weather

In what has been a poky severe weather season for us, we may get our first day of big activity tomorrow. That’s at least how it’s looking.

Our comfy highs in the low 80s today will be replaced with a sticky Thursday: highs close to 90°, dew points back in the 60s, and a muggy south wind. That, all ahead of the next system, that will fire storms on Thursday afternoon west of us.

How it’s looking now: storms arrive late Thursday evening/overnight and will pack a large hail and damaging wind threat, more than anything. I think the tornado threat will reside further to the north and west of us, but I can’t rule it out. Look out for torrential downpours too, which could cause some minor flooding – you know how soggy it’s been, lately.

Posted under severe weather

Hot & Humid & Unsettled. That’s the best way to describe the upcoming week. IF things come together nicely on Sunday, including ample sunshine and close proximity to a weak cold front, we will manage to fire storms in the afternoon and evening – some of which could be severe.

I’m not banking on this, because there’s some uncertainty in the placement of that front and how much clouds during the day could set us back. But for what it’s worth, here’s the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…there’s a slight risk for us for Sunday. I’m thinking the biggest threats would be large hail and some damaging winds…IF…the storms pop.

Heat & humidity stick around for most of this week, and our rather unsettled pattern will lead to daily afternoon t-storm chances.

Posted under severe weather