October 8th and 9th was the first measurable rain we have seen across the area since back on September 17th.  Here are some of the totals from the past 48 hours.

Rainfall over the past 48 hours

There appears to be more where that came from, and maybe much more.  With a potentially soaking rain (which we have desperately been waiting for and need) may also come the threat for severe weather during the day on Saturday.  Right now the system that will eventually affect the Upper Midwest is spinning off of the coast of California.   The red “L” just below Sacramento marks the current position of the storm.  The other two “L’s” mark the track of where the Upper Level Low is currently forecast to go.  We are looking at it on the water vapor imagery.  This type of satellite imagery shows the amount of moisture in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.  It is easy to see how the atmosphere is moving if there was a loop of the image below.

Current positioning and timeline of Upper Level Low

The Upper Level Low seen above on the water vapor imagery will act as the fuel for a surface low that will eventually develop east of the Rocky Mountains.  Once the low emerges from the Rockies, it is forecast to deepen (strengthen) and push up into the Upper Midwest.   A warm front will deliver slightly warmer air to area on Saturday.  The warm sector will be the focal point for any potential severe weather to develop.  The warm sector is the area below the warm front (Red Half Circles) and to the east(right) of the cold front. (Blue Triangles)  As far as timing goes, it looks like we will watch clouds increase Friday night and may even start to get in on some showers that night as well.  That is associated with some energy out ahead of the warm front that looks to cross the area on Saturday morning.  Below is how things may look on Saturday from a surface weather map perspective.

Forecast surface map for Saturday

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the area in a Severe Risk for thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.  What that basically means is that at this time with all of the weather data we have, if things hold together as they look now we will run the potential for severe thunderstorms to develop.

Map showing the area that could see severe thunderstorms on Saturday. (As of 10/10)

As many of you know, things can change in an instant with the weather.  The main body of this system is after all still offshore of the west coast of the United States and a lot can certainly change.  It does appear though at this point a soaking rain is likely with some places possibly picking up near an inch of rain or more, and severe thunderstorms may accompany this rain on Saturday.  We are keeping an eye on this storm.  Keep checking back for updates and changes as this storm system gets closer to the Upper Midwest.

Posted under severe weather, weather

We’re enjoying a fairly mild start to November today with temperatures running about 10° above average for this time of the year, but what else is new?  We enjoyed kind of the same trend in our weather through most of October with 26 of the 31 days featuring normal to above normal temperatures.  We reached the 80° mark seven times early in the month, including a record high of 85° on the fifth.  Overall, it turned out to be the ninth warmest October in Rochester history with a mean temperature of 53.0°, which more than four degrees warmer than the normal mean temperature.  The only thing really missing from the scene was rainfall, which was rather sparse.  Rochester received a trace or more of rainfall on eleven of the 31 days, measuring a tenth or more only one time!  The total for the month was a paltry 0.29″, which is almost two full inches below the 30 year average of 2.24″. 

The 9th warmest October in Rochester history also featured the 5th lowest rainfall total for the month.

 We do have some cooler days and some rainfall in the forecast as a cold front swings through the area this evening, bringing with is some showers for the evening and overnight period and it looks like rain will hold on through much of tomorrow while highs behind the front will be in the 40s for our Wednesday and Thursday.  There will also be a chance for just a little rain late Saturday into very early Sunday morning in association with another cold front.

Posted under climate

Cool, dry high pressure set the stage for a rather chilly night in our region last night and we woke up to the coldest temperatures of the season so far.  Rochester, for instance, dropped into the 20s for the first time since April 5th with a morning low temperature of 29°.  The widespread subfreezing readings meant an end to the growing season for some of the local towns and counties that had previously escaped that fate earlier in the season, so now we’re completely finished with frost and freeze advisories and warnings for the season.  That said, we likely won’t see temperatures this cold for at least another week or so.  In fact, this weekend looks to be pretty mild for us with highs in the 60s and lows closer to 40° than 30° or even the 20s. 

Here’s a look at some of this morning’s low temperatures:

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
908 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY…LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS…
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOUR

                                                   HIGH   LOW   PCPN

DODGE CENTER AWOS     MN :   52 /  25 / 0.00
AUSTIN AWOS           MN :   54 /  25 / 0.00
ROCHESTER ASOS        MN :   53 /  29 / 0.00
PRESTON AWOS          MN :   55 /  33 / 0.00
WINONA AWOS           MN :   54 /  30 / 0.00

CHARLES CITY AWOS     IA :   55 /  27 / 0.00
DECORAH AWOS          IA :   54 /  30 / 0.00
OELWEIN AWOS          IA :    M /   M / 0.00

MEDFORD AWOS          WI :   45 /  28 / 0.00
BLACK RIVER FALLS AWOSWI :   54 /  19 / 0.00
LA CROSSE ASOS        WI :   56 /  29 / 0.00
SPARTA-FT MCCOY AWOS  WI :   53 /  20 / 0.00
VOLK FIELD ASOS       WI :   52 /  23 / 0.00
VIROQUA AWOS          WI :   52 /  31 / 0.00
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AWOS WI :   55 /  28 / 0.00
BOSCOBEL ASOS         WI :   58 /  28 / 0.00
PLATTEVILLE AWOS      WI :   52 /  30 / 0.00

..OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS…
VALUES REPRESENT 24 HOUR TOTALS AS OF THIS MORNING

                                         TIME   HIGH  LOW   PCPN

:…SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…
ALTURA 5W             MN H0700/     /     / 0.00
AUSTIN                MN H0700/  52 /  25 / 0.00
BYRON 4N              MN H0700/  52 /  21 / 0.00
CALEDONIA             MN H0700/  52 /  28 / 0.00
ELGIN 2SSW            MN H0700/     /     / 0.00
GRAND MEADOW          MN H0600/  50 /  23 / 0.00
LA CRESCENT DAM 7     MN H0600/     /     / 0.00
LAKM5: LAKE CITY-COOP        MN H0800/     /     / 0.00
LNBM5: LANESBORO             MN H0700/     /     / 0.00
MSCM5: MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5  MN H0700/     /     / 0.00
PTNM5: PRESTON               MN H0800/  53 /  22 / 0.00
RSRM5: ROCHESTER AP 2NE      MN H0700/     /     / 0.00
SPGM5: SPRING VALLEY         MN H0715/     /     / 0.00
THLM5: THEILMAN 1SSW         MN H0800/  53 /  23 / 0.00
WABM5: WABASHA               MN H0700/     /     / 0.00
WIDM5: WINONA DAM 5A         MN H0600/  54 /  32 / 0.00

:…NORTHEAST IOWA…
CIYI4: CHARLES CITY COOP     IA H0700/     /     / 0.00
CRCI4: CRESCO                IA H0700/  55 /  26 / 0.00
DORI4: DORCHESTER            IA H0700/     /     / 0.00
FYTI4: FAYETTE               IA H0700/  53 /  27 / 0.00
GTTI4: GUTTENBERG DAM 10     IA H0600/     /     / 0.00
IONI4: IONIA 2W              IA H0700/     /     / 0.00
NHPI4: NEW HAMPTON           IA H0700/  53 /  27 / 0.00
OSAI4: OSAGE                 IA H0700/  52 /  28 / 0.00
SANI4: ST ANSGAR             IA H0630/     /     / 0.00
WAUI4: WAUKON                IA H0600/  53 /  32 / 0.00
:
:…WESTERN WISCONSIN…
ALMW3: ALMA DAM 4            WI H0600/     /     / 0.00
BLIW3: BLAIR 2NW             WI H0700/  54 /  22 / 0.00
CBCW3: CUBA CITY             WI H0800/     /     / 0.00
FRSW3: FRIENDSHIP            WI H0700/  50 /  25 / 0.00
GLLW3: GALESVILLE 3ENE       WI H0630/     /     /   T
GENW3: GENOA DAM 8           WI H0600/  53 /  41 / 0.00
HLSW3: HILLSBORO 1SW         WI H0800/  50 /  26 / 0.00
ARX  : LA CROSSE WFO         WI H0700/  52 /  31 / 0.00
LAFW3: LA FARGE              WI H0700/     /     / 0.00
LANW3: LANCASTER 4WSW        WI H0800/  51 /  30 / 0.00
LYNW3: LYNXVILLE DAM 9       WI H0600/     /     / 0.00
MATW3: MATHER 3NW            WI H0700/  51 /  29 / 0.00
NECW3: NECEDAH               WI H0600/  52 /  26 / 0.00
NELW3: NEILLSVILLE 3SW       WI H0630/  51 /  26 / 0.00
OTRW3: ONTARIO 3E            WI H0700/     /     / 0.00
OWEW3: OWEN 2N               WI H0800/  47 /  21 / 0.00
PDCW3: PRAIRIE DU CHIEN      WI H0700/  55 /  28 / 0.00
RTNW3: READSTOWN 4NE         WI H0700/     /     / 0.00
SRTW3: SPARTA                WI H0800/  54 /  24 / 0.00
SBNW3: STEUBEN 4SE           WI H0540/  52 /  35 / 0.00
TREW3: TREMPEALEAU DAM 6     WI H0600/     /     / 0.00
VQAW3: VIROQUA               WI H0700/  52 /  29 / 0.00
WESW3: WESTBY 3ENE           WI H0700/     /     / 0.00

Posted under Lows

Now that we’ve turned the page on the calendar and are starting the month of November today, we can look back and reminisce about the rather mild and mostly pleasant month of October we just finished.  October 2010 was the third warmest October in Rochester history thanks to an unbelievably warm first half of the month and then a fairly mild final few days.  The mean temperature was 52.6°, still several degrees shy of the record of 58.1° set in 1963, but well above the 47.0° that would have been considered average for October. 

Some of the most memorable statistics of the month include; the latest 90° high during a calendar year which occurred on Saturday, October 9th; the windiest two day period in Rochester history with an average of 29.8 mile per hour winds between the 26th and 27th; and a tied record for the longest stretch of 80° highs in October between the 14th to the 17th.  We also enjoyed a very timely dry stretch to start the month that allowed river levels to fall across the area, wet soils to dry out, and allowed farmers to take care of the harvest without too many problems.

A rather warm and fairly dry month of October 2010 in Rochester

Posted under climate

High Wind *Watch* for Tuesday-Wednesday

The weather the next few days will be crazy. At the height of the storm that’ll be plowing through the midsection of the country, we’ll most likely be dealing with very strong winds.

The NWS out of Chanhassen writes this:

“The winds are in response to a strong low pressure system across the upper midwest…one of a magnitude that occurs in this region once every five years or so”.

For that reason, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the area, for Tuesday to Wednesday. That means that sustained winds could be higher than 40 mph or winds could gust higher than 58 mph during that time period. This could cause damage, and will make driving extremely difficult.

On Monday, I think we’ll all meet or beat the 70°, with partly sunny skies and a wind picking up ahead of this beast of a low pressure. I also think most of the day will be spent dry, after some morning fog, but storms will become likely – some strong – in the evening and overnight into Tuesday morning.

A cool down, starting Tuesday, will also take shape. Look for highs to tumble into the 40s for the mid week. The good news…it’s short-lived.

Stay tuned over the next day or so to see how the watch plays out…

Posted under fall, severe weather

Slight risk for severe weather Saturday evening/overnight

Believe it or not, we’re running a slight risk for severe weather this evening/overnight. While I’m not expecting a lot of activity, some storms could be on the strong side….IF we see them.

The storm system that’s afflicting rain across the midwest is dragging a warm front and stationary front through our area. Our showers from this morning have shifted to the north, and we’ve broken out into bits of sun today, with a humid and warm airmass in place (unusual for late October). So, there’s some instability alive, and we’ll see if it holds to generate some storms through the overnight.

Next week looks wild. A strong storm system on Tuesday-Wednesday will bring rain, probably some thunder, and very high winds, followed by a big cool off. Stay tuned…

Posted under fall, severe weather

Some recent Rochester October snow stats

Ready for this? Rochester climate states that today (Oct. 22nd), we typically see our first measurable snowfall of the season – 0.01″. Go ahead and relive the memories from 2009′s snowy October and contrast that to 2010′s October. Whoohoo!

Enjoy today!!!! Rain chances will increase overnight and we’ll dodge raindrops throughout the weekend. Oh by the way, I bring up the whole snow thing too because there’s still a chance – a chance – for some wet snowflakes to mix in next Thursday.

P.S. Hunter’s Moon tonight – it’s the full moon, and you should be able to catch it before the clouds roll in.

Posted under Astronomy, climate, fall

Fire Danger across Minnesota from the DNR

Dry weather continues yet another day for us – now 26 days in Rochester without any rainfall.

That’s been good since the late September floods, but the dryness is turning into a fire hazard.

The Minnesota DNR now places the southern third of Minnesota in a Moderate fire danger rating, with the Twin Cities northward in a High fire danger. Basically, fires can start easily and spread.

If you have burning planned, check before you do so. Burning restrictions are in place across the state, and it’s better to be on the safe side, here.

A cold front on Wednesday will kick our winds up to about 20-30mph during the afternoon. High winds along with the dry conditions will add an additional fire threat.

Dry weather being said, we’ll have more active weather this weekend, with showers looking to be a good bet. Also, there appears to be some change shaping up in the 8-10 day forecasts. I’m generally not one to jump on longer ranged forecasts, but things get interesting by mid next week, and this is too fun to ignore.  Right  now – it looks like anything is possible.

Posted under fall, fire danger ratings

Scattered showers/sprinkles will be in the forecast tonight and into Monday morning. Nothing major at all, but certainly a change from our, uh…rain-free mind set we’ve been in for the past 24 days (24 days in Rochester, that is).

That’s the whole month of October, plus some, by the way. We’ve picked up a trace, so far – on the 1st of the month, but that’s not enough to count the 1st as a day of rainfall. I looked up the driest October on record in Rochester, and it was in 1952, when only 0.01″ of rain fell.

Otherwise, this upcoming week is still looking typically fall-ish for this time of the year, with more dry weather.

Here’s our fall photo we showed tonight. Enjoy the colors while they last!

Sue Urness, Rochester

Posted under fall, fall photos, Farming

It’s been an incredibly warm month of October so far.  In fact, if you look at the mean temperature for the first two weeks, which is the average of the cumulative highs and lows combined, this month is on pace to be the warmest October in Rochester history.  Our mean temperature for this month so far is 58.2° and the record for the entire month is 58.1°, which occurred in 1963.  However, we still have another two plus weeks remaining and from the looks of the forecast, cooler, more seasonable weather is expected and that will likely draw that mean down a bit.  Even so, we’re likely to end up in the top handful of all-time Octobers thanks to this unusually warm start.  The normal mean temperature for this time of the month would be 50.1°.

The Rochester climate data for the first 14 days of October 2010.

Posted under climate