With just two weeks remaining in meteorological winter we find ourselves getting closer and closer to setting a new record for the warmest winter in history.  As our temperatures continue to hover some ten degrees above climate average this month, our overall mean temperatures for the winter continues to climb, drawing us closer to the highest mean temperature ever recorded in Rochester of 25.1° set ten years ago in 2001-02.  The way things appear right now, we’ll pass that record in the next week or two as the forecast is calling for highs in the 30s with lows mainly in the lower and mid 20s.  Here’s the official statement and summary of our current situation from the National Weather Service in La Crosse, Wisconsin:

Warmest Winter Since 2001-02…So Far

Posted under winter weather

While the thick, low clouds and dense fog are keeping temperatures a bit cooler today, we’re still dealing with temperatures that are rather mild for February standards and it looks like this trend will carry into the weekend.  Typically this time of the year we should have high temperatures in the teens and 20s with the occasional 30 degree high every now and then, but as we experienced in January we’re instead experiencing March weather with 30 and 40 degree warmth melting our relatively thin layer of snow cover and fog is a bigger concern than accumulating snow.  That’s just a product of the bizarre pattern we’re in right now as the jet stream is keeping the really cold stuff to our north and the main storm track is on the southern branch of the jet stream.  Colorado, Nebraska, and Iowa are dealing with a large storm system along the southern branch that is bringing them several inches of snow.  With very few exceptions in the next couple of weeks, it looks like we’ll stick with the warmer temperatures and the fairly dry precipitation scenario locally.  The Climate Prediction Center’s most recent and easy to believe forecast for this month has our entire region in the “very likely” category for above normal temperatures while precipitation is a little more up in the air and looks to be cumulatively light in any case over the next few weeks.  It’s hard to pin down exactly what temperatures we’ll have all month long, but a “more of the same” approach seems to work right now with more 20s and 30s with the occasional 40 more likely than the typical 10, 15, or 20 degree highs you might expect in the dead of winter.

Here’s a look at what we normally expect in the month of February between now and the end of the month according to our 30 year climatology.  Again, it appears that we’ll be a bit above these numbers more often than not.

The temperature averages in February climb steadily. Typically we'd have to wait until the very end of the month to experience the type of pattern we're in right now with highs in the 30s.

One statistic that is certain right now is the length of daylight we’ll be experiencing in the next 26 days.  We’re going to GAIN 72 minutes each by the end of the month as that sunset will occur around 6:00 by the beginning of March.  That’s always one of the best parts of the second half of winter!

Posted under climate

Corrected for avg temperature of 22.8 degrees vs. 22.7 degrees and from 7th place to tied for 6th warmest January on record in Rochester, MN.

Our unbelievable mild weather spell continues today as we cruise into the month of February with temperatures that are more reminiscent of March than something we might feel in mid winter.  Of course this isn’t the first stretch of unseasonably warm weather we’ve experienced this winter as both December and January have already featured some incredible warmth.  Looking at the month we just finished, January, we can see that with the exception of just a few days in two cold snaps, temperatures in Rochester weren’t very January-like.  It was supposed to be the coldest month of the year and instead it was mostly unwinter-like with an average high near the freezing mark.  The mean temperature for January in Rochester was 22.8°, making it the 6th warmest January in history.  The warmest, interestingly enough, was just six years ago when we had a mean temperature of 28° in January of 2006.  Here’s a look at some of the more specific statistics:

Temperatures were well above normal for January while overall precipitation and snowfall were a little lower than average.

Posted under climate

We’re off to a very mild start to the week with high temperatures in the 40s in the forecast for both today and tomorrow locally while our skies look to remain fairly dry and even sunny at times.  To winter weather enthusiasts, this is just a case of “what else is new?  More bad news.”  To those who want to spend a little more time outside or have to work outside this is good news and it looks like this quiet, mild pattern will linger through Thursday at least and possibly a bit further down the road thanks to a mild jet stream pattern.  Right now the northern branch of the jet stream is to our north keeping the really cold, more seasonable arctic air bottled up in northern Canada and the southern branch is where more of the “active weather” resides and that is closer to the Gulf Coast.  We’re in the middle getting the odd weak storm system here and there, as we did over the weekend, but not getting huge amounts of snow and not experiencing a typical end to the month of January for our regional standards.

Our current upper air pattern, or jet stream, will keep our weather dry and mild to start the week.

The jet stream this weekend looks a little more active for the Midwest, possibly meaning a storm system will affect our area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but close to the freezing mark, meaning precipitation types may be snow or a wintry mixture in the upcoming event.

That mild, split flow jet stream pattern will continue through most of this week with just a minor change coming up over the weekend.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a potential winter storm that may develop to our south, possibly spreading some precipitation to toward our area by Friday.  So much is up in the air right now that to give too many details would be ridiculous because we’d have to retract our statements and change the whole story every day this week until we got closer to the weekend and things looked clearer.  Right now is looks like we’ll be facing mainly a light snow/wintry mixture scenario for Friday and then a heavier, icier or rainier day on Saturday, and then a slight amount of snow on Sunday with that storm system.  We’ve had indications that it’ll stay south of us, so it may be a non factor or it may shift a bit, changing the timing of the precipitation or even the precipitation types altogether.  The bottom line is: stay tuned and expect maybe a little wintry, messy weather for Friday through Sunday.  In the meantime, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild for the next several days and while we will experience a cooling trend beyond Tuesday, we’ll be much warmer than normal through at least Sunday as highs will be in the 30s which is warmer than the usual teens or 20s that we’d typically experience this time of the year.

Posted under winter weather

A weak storm system from the west is spreading clouds and light snow across the local area today. This will be a lighter snow event for us than the past two to affect the region last Friday and Monday of this week as only about an inch of accumulation is expected for the most part. The evening commute may be a little tricky because of the potential for a few extra slick spots on the street and highways from the afternoon to early evening snow, but as long as everyone takes their time and expects a slight delay, it shouldn’t be cataclysmic. The heaviest amounts in the region look to accumulate north of Rochester toward the Twin Cities and even north of there as two inches will be possible for some locations in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

Snowfall will occur through the afternoon with a sharp drop off in intensity after sunset. Amounts will be light, with the highest totals to the north.

Behind this storm system we’ll have gusty, colder weather with some sunshine tomorrow and then a chance for a few light snow showers tomorrow night.  Accumulations tomorrow night will be light with less than half an inch expected.  We’ll have chilly sunshine and highs in the teens on Sunday with snow showers and little if any accumulation Monday.  A bigger storm system Tuesday into early Wednesday will bring a mixture of rain and snow and then some light accumulations of snow to the area.  Snow showers and flurries will be possible Thursday and Friday, so it’ll be an active pattern, but generally speaking, only light snow is expected in the next week while high temperatures look to remain quite mild in the longer term as highs will be in the lower and mid 30s from Monday through next Friday.

Posted under winter weather

While we’ve had a couple of cold spells in the past six weeks, the majority of our meteorological winter thus far has been incredibly warm and now ranks in the top ten in Rochester’s history.  Here’s a statement from the National weather Service in La Crosse regarding our mild winter.  A Very interesting bit of data!

Exceptionally Warm Start to the 2011-12 Winter

 

The first half of the 2011-12 meterological winter (December 1, 2011 through January 15, 2012) was exceptionally warm across the northern and eastern United States.  Locally, temperatures averaged 6 to 12 degrees above normal which made it the warmest start to a winter since 2006-07. It was the fifth warmest start to a winter at Rochester, MN and the tenth warmest start to a winter at La Crosse, WI.

Temperature Departures across the United States from December 1, 2011 through January 15, 2012

Why So Warm?

The following weather conditions led to this exceptionally warm start… 

1. Lack of Snow - This usually results in temperatures averaging about 11 degrees warmer than normal.
2. Polar Jet Stream remained generally north of the area - This was a result of the Arctic Oscillation being in its positive phase.  When this occurs, the polar jet stream usually remains north of 60 degrees north latitude.  This keeps the arctic air bottled up near the arctic circle.
3. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) remained over the tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean - The Madden Julian Oscillation is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics.  It typically originates over the Indian Ocean and then propagates around the world anywhere from 30 to 60 days.  When this oscillation is located across the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, temperatures across the eastern half of the United States usually average above normal.

More information on just how warm this winter has been so far at La Crosse, WI; Rochester, MN; and across the remainder of the area can be found below.

Rochester MN…

From December 1st through January 15th, the average temperature at Rochester International Airport was 26.1 degrees.  This was 9.1 degrees above the normal of 17 degrees.  This was the fifth warmest first half of a meteorological winter. The last time that a winter started off this warm was during the winter of 2006-07 (27.7 degrees).

The table below lists the ten warmest winters through January 15th.

    Warmest First Halves of a Winter
in Rochester MN
1886-2012

Average
Rank    Temperature     Winter
—-    ———–     ——
1     27.7 degrees   2006-07
27.7 degrees   1913-14
3     27.1 degrees   1959-60
4     26.7 degrees   1931-32
5     26.1 degrees   2011-12
6     25.8 degrees   2001-02
7     24.1 degrees   1982-83
8     23.7 degrees   1979-80
9     23.6 degrees   1987-88
10     23.3 degrees   1957-58

Elsewhere…

Northeast Iowa…

Cresco             25.5 degrees    + 8.5 degrees
Decorah            28.6 degrees    +11.6 degrees
Elkader            26.6 degrees    + 6.6 degrees
Guttenberg         31.0 degrees    +11.0 degrees
Oelwein            27.0 degrees    + 8.0 degrees
Waukon             26.4 degrees    + 7.4 degrees

Southeast Minnesota…

Byron              23.2 degrees    + 7.2 degrees
Grand Meadow       23.5 degrees    + 7.5 degrees
Minnesota City Dam 27.5 degrees    +10.5 degrees
Preston            25.2 degrees    + 8.2 degrees
Winona Dam         27.0 degrees    +10.0 degrees

Western Wisconsin…

Alma Dam           27.7 degrees    +10.7 degrees
Friendship         26.2 degrees    + 8.2 degrees
Hillsboro          26.4 degrees    + 7.4 degrees
Medford            21.4 degrees    + 8.4 degrees
Lone Rock          29.2 degrees    +10.2 degrees
Lynxville Dam      30.7 degrees    +11.7 degrees
Owen               21.1 degrees    + 6.1 degrees
Sparta             26.0 degrees    + 8.0 degrees
Trempealeau Dam    28.7 degrees    +10.7 degrees
Viroqua            25.1 degrees    + 6.1 degrees

 

Posted under climate

We turned the page on the calendar overnight and just like that, we went from November into December and from fall weather into winter as a cold front and its associated storm system brought brought us a dusting of snow to start the new month.  Of course, this is meteorological winter and we should expect this, but it’s just amazing how Old Man Winter can be so prompt sometimes.  Before today, most of us had only seen a minuscule amount of snow during our rather dry and mild November, a month that featured officially only 0.2 inches of snowfall in Rochester.   The average amount of November snow would be closer to 6 inches, but these things can be quite variable early in the season.  Some Novembers are much drier than others and this year’s version was especially so.  Here’s a look at the climate numbers from our dry and mild November:

It was the 8th warmest November in Rochester history and the driest in several years.

From the looks of things in our current forecast, we’ll be making up lost time in the way of snowfall as another storm system will move into the region this weekend, possibly bringing us more accumulating snow.  While it doesn’t look like a huge snow event, it may drop a little more snow than the past couple of storms in our area.

Posted under climate

The past couple of days have been just ideal for the holiday weekend in terms of travel conditions and warmth as skies have been fairly bright and dry and our temperatures have been unusually warm for late November.  We’re going to enjoy one more day of incredible warmth before typical November returns for the foreseeable future.  A storm system to our west is approaching the area today, producing some thicker clouds and gusty south winds for us.  Even with a little less sunshine than the past couple of days, our afternoon highs are expected to reach well into the 50s thanks to that nice shot of warm air.   Here’s a look at some of the local high temperatures from Thanksgiving, a day that featured some record warmth and our first 60 degree highs in two weeks.

Rochester set a record high on Thursday with 60° reported at the airport. It surpassed the former record of 56° set in 1990.

The warm spell will end tonight as that storm system drags a cold front through the Upper Mississippi Valley, allowing much colder air in from Canada.  We’ll have overnight lows in the lower 40s and then we’ll start the day Saturday with rain and temperatures in the lower 40s with steadily falling temperatures through the day, eventually reaching the mid 30s by day’s end.  Strong, gusty west winds will occasionally reach 35 miles per hour tomorrow, making it feel even colder.  As we move into the mid and late afternoonh tomorrow, snow will develop with some grassy accumulations possible by tomorrow night before ending early Sunday.  Totals will be rather light, however with generally less than an inch expected across the viewing area.  Colder, more seasonable weather is expected through the next week with another chance for light snow showers or flurries late Wednesday and blustery, cold winds just about each day.

Snowfall totals Saturday evening and night will be on the light side, but there will definitely be enough to remind us that we're getting close to December.

Posted under weather

It seems almost too good to be true, but we have a great looking forecast picture for both Wednesday and Thursday (and even Friday, to be quite honest) for those traveling or just enjoying time with family and friends for Thanksgiving.  Of course, tomorrow is the big travel day, or certainly the most popular travel day and it looks like we’ll not only enjoy dry weather with just a light breeze, but we’ll also actually finally get to see some sunshine.  It’s been days since we’ve been able to say that!  The last time we had a mostly sunny day was last Friday and it looks like after we get rid of a few scattered low clouds and some pockets of morning fog, we’ll have plenty of bright sunshine in the afternoon that will push the mercury into the upper 40s to near 50°! 

A great looking, sun filled Wednesday across the entire region should make for ideal travel weather.

Thursday will be a bit breezy at times, but alos sunnier and even warmer than Wednesday with afternoon highs expected to be in the middle and upper 50s, which is about 20° warmer than normal in our area.  Not too bad for a Thanksgiving forecast, eh?  You might even be tempted to run outside after dinner and throw around the football or take the dogs for a nice, long stroll!

We'll have a breezy, bright, and mild Thanksgiving across the entire region for Thanksgiving.

Friday will be fairly pleasant as well, but clouds will begin to thicken and a few sprinkles or very light rain showers may sneak in for the evening.  Highs Friday will be rather mild again with afternoon readings likely to be near 50°.  Those rain chances will hold over into Saturday, though, with lower 40s expected in the afternoon.  Sunday looks dry right now with highs in the 30s.

Posted under Holidays

We’ve added some thin clouds to the weather picture while some stronger winds are making things a little challenging for us today, but the warm weather theme we’ve been enjoying all week continues for our Friday.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the western portion of our local area until 10:00 tonight as south winds will be gusting to 40mph at times.  High profile vehicles will have the toughest time with these winds as will anybody who has to secure their patio furniture.  The winds are also increasing the fire danger across the our entire area as vegetation continues to dry out, so a little rain would be appreciated.  The storm system to our west that is generating these winds will in fact bring some sprinkles or light showers to the area starting with areas west of Interstate 35 today and then the rest of the area tomorrow and Sunday, but keep in mind it’ll be sparse, light activity and there will be some bright spells of sunshine, so the entire weekend will by no means be a washout.  Friday night football games may also be affected by the gusty winds as teams kicking with the wind to their backs will have a nice little advantage in some cases as south winds will still be in a 20 to 30 mile per hour range during the early evening hours. 

It'll be one of the warmest, windiest football games of the season tonight.

Saturday will be the final local Honor Flight for our World War II veterans who will be traveling to the World War II Memorial in Washington, D.C.  Here’s the forecast for their visit in our nation’s capital:

What a pleasant day to visit the World War II Memorial!

Posted under weather