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A Warmer, More Active Weather Pattern

We’re in the midst of a very slow warming trend that is going to take us close to the seasonal averages in terms of temperatures in the region over the next few days.  Sunshine and south winds today are working to push the mercury up into the 40s this afternoon for the first time in the young month of April and it looks like a shift in our overall pattern will keep that type of temperature scheme around into the weekend.   A weak cold front will move in from the northwest late tonight and early tomorrow, bringing some sprinkles or brief, light showers, but nothing too unusual is expected.  The upper air pattern will begin to make that change this weekend as the jet stream sinks southward in the western part of the country and will begin to send pieces of energy in the form of a couple of storm systems northeastward into our region.  The end result will be a series of rain chances along with more seasonably mild weather for the weekend and most of next week.  High temperatures look to reach into the 40s to near 50 degrees through the upcoming week, just a few degrees shy of what we consider to be normal for this time of the year.

Ted Blog1

  Ted Blog2

Rain chances will spread northeastward across the region Friday night and Saturday and then again late Sunday night into Monday and during the day Tuesday.

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Posted under spring

This post was written by tschmidt on April 3, 2013

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A Wild Ride Ahead

We’re in for quite a roller coaster ride in our local weather over the next few days as unseasonably warm air and then an arctic blast will make their way into our weather picture.  Strangely enough, we start things off with a very quiet, typical mid January day today with a slight breeze, some sunshine, and high temperatures in the 20s.  After this, however, it’ll be far from typical January weather for a couple of days as a storm system north of us kicks up some strong southwest winds during the day and with abundant sunshine, works to pull in some really mild air.  High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 40s which will be closer to a record high than the seasonably cold 20s that would be closer to average.  There will be some snow showers or flurries early in the days as the warm front moves through and then again Saturday as a potent cold front approaches from the northwest behind that storm system.   Saturday will be windy and warmer than normal to start before the arctic air blows in during the afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will drop like a rock in the evening Saturday and then not recorver much Sunday with more snow showers possible.  The coldest air from northern Canada will linger through Monday and Tuesday before warmer, more seasonable weather returns for the middle of the upcoming week.

 

Temperatures will begin their climb early Friday and then drop off dramatically late Saturday.

 

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Posted under Cold, weather

This post was written by tschmidt on January 17, 2013

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A Warm Week

A significant shift in our weather pattern is bringing some unseasonably warm air into the region this week.  Right now it looks like we have five solid days of 30 degree weather in store for just about the entire area as the jet stream begins to lift to the north allowing some of that warmth in.  While this mild spell is going to make venturing outside a little more comfortable for us, it’s also eat into our snowpack a little, especially on Thursday when rain seems very possible across the area.  Rochester, for instance, currently has an official snow depth of 4 inches and right now it seems like the majority of that may be washed away by the weekend.  Look for highs in the low to mid 30s from today through Friday with sunshine and gusty winds through Wednesday followed by a little light rain during the day Thursday and mixed rain and snow showers Thursday night through part of Friday.  There is a chance that we may get some of that snow back Saturday as a storm system moves in from the southwest, but the track of that storm is very uncertain and it’s entirly possible that we may miss out on the whole thing.  Colder air will return Saturday and linger through all of next week, with or without snow on the ground.

 

Warm air is surging northward, bringing us a taste of early March weather this week.

 

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Posted under winter weather

This post was written by tschmidt on January 7, 2013

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Mild To Start The Week, But Big Changes Are Ahead

w’re in the midst o a comfortably mild and September-like weather pttern as we start the last full week of October.  The jet stream has shifted to the north, allowing this mild air in from the southern plains, but there is plenty of energy riding along that upper level pattern from the southwest, meaning unsettled weather will be the rule for a few more days.  A surface cold front and potent storm system will move through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, producing some heavy, soaking showers and allowing colder air in from the northwest behind it. 

The jet stream has shifted northward in the Upper Midwest, keeping things unseasonably warm for the early part of this week.By Friday, the jet stream will have bucked southward, allowing much cooler air into the region from Canada.

 

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Posted under fall

This post was written by tschmidt on October 22, 2012

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A Warm Weekend, Then Reality Sets In

What a gorgeous finale to the work week we have going for us today!  High pressure is bringing us a cloudless and mild late summer/early fall day today as temperatures are climbing into the mid and upper 70s across the region.  Things will get a bit warmer as we get into the heart of the weekend with the help of southwest winds that will be flowing into a storm system well to the north of the Canadian border will warm things into the upper 70s and low 80s for Saturday and Sunday.  The climate average temperatures for our area are 72 for highs and 51 for lows, so yes, things will continue to be slightly warmer than normal for this time of the year, a trend we’re accustomed to in an unusually warm year overall.  However, it does appear that there will be quite a cool down in the coming week to possibly “balance things out” and bring some measure of fall weather to the picture just in time for the run up to the autumnal equinox which takes place next Saturday.  It doesn’t always work like his, but more often than not, there is some kind of  balancing act in ou weather that swings temperatures back the other way when we’ve been on an unseasonable temperature trend.  The jet stream next week is expected to push way to he south in the eastern half of the country, including our local area, allowing a series of strong cold fronts to swing through the Upper Mississippi Valley, making for a slightly cooler than normal situation for possibly a couple of weeks or more as it appears right now. 

In the meantime, we do have a little taste of comfortable late summer weather in store for this weekend and below is tonight’s Friday night football forecast.

 

It looks like we'll enjoy a gorgeous evening for football across our area tonight.The jet stream (upper level atmospheric wind current) will push southward next week, possibly keeping things cooler than normal for us by several degrees.The latest outlook for next week from the Climate Prediction Center has our region likely on the cool side for temperatures.

 

 

 

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Posted under weather

This post was written by tschmidt on September 14, 2012

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A Mild May So Far…And It May Get Even Warmer

With very few exceptions so far, our month of May has certainly been rather warm and mostly pleasant.  Sure we had that first week in the month where it was a little stormy, but we collected some much needed rainfall and since the 6th of the month it’s been essentially wall-to-wall sunshine with what you might want to call “room temperature weather” as highs have been in the 60s and 70s for the most part.  Even when we reached the 80s, the humidity wasn’t a concern at all, so it felt amazingly comfortable.  Statistically, we’re running a little above normal for temperatures and rainfall this month and it looks like the warm trend will carry us right into the weekend and beyond.  As far as rainfall goes, we have a slight surplus and that should carry us into the weekend when more widespread rain chances are expected locally and then later next week, it appears our pattern may be getting active again for a while, so that department seems okay as well.  Our highs will hover in the 70s today and tomorrow before some warmer air blows in for Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching storm system from the west.  There will be just a little taste of summer in the air for those two days before we dip back into the 70s for the longer term.

We've been enjoying mild weather with timely rainfall so far this month and it looks like 70° warmth will be the rule in the next few days as well.

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Posted under climate

This post was written by tschmidt on May 16, 2012

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April Summary

In contrast to the record setting month of March that felt more like May most of the time, our month of April was quite seasonable with a decent amount of rainfall in the area.  In Rochester, we were only couple of degrees above normal for the average high and low temperatures and we finished a little more than half an inch of rainfall below what we consider average.  As for snowfall, we had a trace a couple of times in the month, but nothing measurable.

The month of April this year was very typical in that the averages were close to the climate "norm" in most categories.

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Posted under climate

This post was written by tschmidt on May 1, 2012

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Quite a Warm Spell

We’ve talked at great length about the incredible warmth and number of records that have been shattered this month of March, highlighting of course the strong likelihood that this will prove to be the warmest March EVER in Rochester history.  We should also isolate the current warm spell of this amazing mild pattern to truly appreciate what has happened.  We’ve broken eight record highs since March 10th, averaging 76° for highs with lows consistently staying in the 50s and 60s.  Those numbers are more typical of what we might see around Memorial Day weekend or even early June.  When you consider that we’ve touched 80° twice and dew points this week have been in the 60s a few times, that certainly is June-like and while we won’t have so much of the June weather ahead in the next week, we will have some incredibly mild weather at least through the middle of upcoming week.  Even after that, we’ll stay above normal with 50s to near 60 at least through the early part of April.

In the past two weeks, we've been warmer than normal by an average of 30 degrees each day and records have been falling consistently.

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Posted under climate

This post was written by tschmidt on March 23, 2012

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Beneficial Rainfall Across the Area

After a week of nearly dry, but warm and pleasant weather, we’re feeling much more unsettled and overcast today and it looks like this new gray scenario will carry us into the upcoming weekend.  Even with the extra clouds, temperatures are still quite mild for March, so we don’t have to say good-bye to the ridiculously mild stuff yet.  We’ll just have to remember to bring along the rain gear when we leave the house each morning.  Unfortunately, we did have some damage in some localized pockets on Monday from straight line winds where gusts reached 60+ miles per hour, but in addition to that we did receive some much needed rainfall.  Here’s a look at some of the totals from Monday and early Tuesday:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1015 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

     ...24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...

LOCATION                   RAINFALL    TIME     LAT/LON

IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
WAUKON                     0.68        0700 AM  43.27N 91.47W
ION                        0.52        0700 AM  43.11N 91.27W
DORCHESTER                 0.50        0700 AM  43.47N 91.51W
DORCHESTER HIGHWAY 76      0.49        0700 AM  43.42N 91.51W
HARPERS FERRY              0.46        0700 AM  43.17N 91.24W
LANSING 4SE                0.43        0700 AM  43.32N 91.16W

...CHICKASAW COUNTY...
IONIA                      0.72        0700 AM  43.03N 92.50W
NEW HAMPTON                0.68        0700 AM  43.06N 92.31W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
STRAWBERRY POINT           1.39        0700 AM  42.69N 91.53W
ELKADER 6SSW               0.97        0700 AM  42.79N 91.45W
VOLGA                      0.89        0700 AM  42.81N 91.52W
EDGEWOOD                   0.71        0700 AM  42.65N 91.40W
LITTLEPORT                 0.65        0700 AM  42.75N 91.37W
ELKADER                    0.64        0700 AM  42.84N 91.40W
MARQUETTE                  0.25        0700 AM  43.04N 91.21W
GARBER                     0.17        0700 AM  42.74N 91.26W
GUTTENBERG                 0.13        0700 AM  42.79N 91.10W
MCGREGOR                   0.12        0700 AM  43.02N 91.17W

...FAYETTE COUNTY...
WEST UNION                 0.65        0700 AM  42.98N 91.79W
CLERMONT                   0.47        0700 AM  43.00N 91.66W
ELDORADO                   0.45        0700 AM  43.05N 91.81W
FAYETTE                    0.42        0700 AM  42.85N 91.82W
OELWEIN AWOS               0.34        0700 AM  42.68N 91.97W

...FLOYD COUNTY...
NASHUA                     0.58        0700 AM  42.94N 92.57W
CHARLES CITY AWOS          0.43        0700 AM  43.07N 92.61W
CHARLES CITY COOP          0.20        0700 AM  43.08N 92.67W
CHARLES CITY CEDAR RVR     0.11        0700 AM  43.06N 92.67W

...HOWARD COUNTY...
ELMA                       0.92        0700 AM  43.24N 92.44W
CRESCO                     0.31        0700 AM  43.37N 92.11W

...MITCHELL COUNTY...
ST ANSGAR                  0.60        0700 AM  43.37N 92.83W
OSAGE                      0.31        0700 AM  43.28N 92.81W

...WINNESHIEK COUNTY...
BLUFFTON                   0.57        0700 AM  43.41N 91.90W
CALMAR                     0.44        0700 AM  43.18N 91.87W
WAUCOMA                    0.39        0700 AM  43.05N 92.04W
DECORAH                    0.28        0700 AM  43.30N 91.80W

MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
MANTORVILLE                0.81        0700 AM  44.07N 92.77W
DODGE CENTER               0.68        0700 AM  44.04N 92.88W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
SPRING VALLEY 3E           0.66        0700 AM  43.68N 92.33W
SPRING VALLEY 1 NW         0.64        0700 AM  43.70N 92.40W
HIGHLAND                   0.54        0700 AM  43.65N 91.84W
SPRING VALLEY              0.38        0700 AM  43.69N 92.39W
PRESTON                    0.36        0700 AM  43.67N 92.07W
PRESTON 1 NNE              0.35        0700 AM  43.68N 92.08W
CARIMONA                   0.33        0700 AM  43.66N 92.15W
PRESTON AWOS               0.31        0700 AM  43.68N 92.18W
PILOT MOUND                0.30        0700 AM  43.78N 92.03W
LANESBORO                  0.25        0700 AM  43.72N 91.97W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
BROWNSVILLE                0.56        0700 AM  43.70N 91.27W
LA CRESCENT 1NNW           0.52        0700 AM  43.83N 91.31W
CALEDONIA                  0.47        0700 AM  43.63N 91.50W
HOUSTON                    0.35        0700 AM  43.77N 91.57W
MOUND PRAIRIE              0.28        0700 AM  43.78N 91.45W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN                     0.49        0700 AM  43.67N 92.95W
LANSING                    0.44        0700 AM  43.75N 92.95W
AUSTIN 3S                  0.36        0700 AM  43.62N 93.00W
GRAND MEADOW               0.30        0700 AM  43.71N 92.56W

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
ELGIN                      0.83        0700 AM  44.10N 92.27W
POST TOWN                  0.49        0700 AM  44.09N 92.82W
ROCHESTER - SILVER CREEK   0.38        0700 AM  44.03N 92.42W
ROCHESTER - BEAR CREEK     0.30        0700 AM  43.92N 92.48W
DOVER                      0.29        0700 AM  44.01N 92.11W
ROCHESTER - CASCADE CREEK  0.13        0700 AM  44.03N 92.48W
ROCHESTER BELTLINE         0.13        0700 AM  43.91N 92.50W

...WABASHA COUNTY...
LAKE CITY                  0.75        0700 AM  44.43N 92.28W
LAKE CITY                  0.65        0700 AM  44.45N 92.26W
THEILMAN                   0.51        0700 AM  44.28N 92.19W
KELLOGG                    0.27        0700 AM  44.32N 92.00W

...WINONA COUNTY...
WINONA                     0.65        0700 AM  44.09N 91.67W
LA CRESCENT DAM 7          0.55        0700 AM  43.87N 91.31W
MINNESOTA CITY             0.51        0700 AM  44.16N 91.81W
DAKOTA                     0.36        0700 AM  43.92N 91.37W
ALTURA 5W                  0.34        0700 AM  44.06N 92.04W
ALTURA                     0.20        0700 AM  44.15N 92.01W

WISCONSIN

...ADAMS COUNTY...
FRIENDSHIP                 0.05        0700 AM  43.98N 89.83W

...BUFFALO COUNTY...
MONDOVI 6S                 0.52        0700 AM  44.48N 91.67W
ALMA DAM 4                 0.30        0700 AM  44.33N 91.92W

...CLARK COUNTY...
OWEN                       0.37        0700 AM  44.98N 90.55W
NEILLSVILLE 3SW            0.23        0700 AM  44.53N 90.64W
NEILLSVILLE                0.20        0700 AM  44.56N 90.61W

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
LYNXVILLE DAM 9            0.32        0700 AM  43.21N 91.10W
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN           0.28        0700 AM  43.05N 91.13W
STEUBEN 4SE                0.07        0700 AM  43.13N 90.84W
SOLDIERS GROVE             0.06        0700 AM  43.39N 90.78W

...GRANT COUNTY...
ROCKVILLE                  0.22        0700 AM  42.73N 90.64W
SINSINAWA                  0.17        0700 AM  42.52N 90.54W
BOSCOBEL ASOS              0.06        0700 AM  43.16N 90.68W
LANCASTER 4WSW             0.05        0700 AM  42.83N 90.79W
BOSCOBEL RAWS              0.05        0700 AM  43.15N 90.68W
BURTON                     0.04        0700 AM  42.72N 90.82W

...JACKSON COUNTY...
BLACK RIVER FALLS STP      0.33        0700 AM  44.29N 90.85W
BLACK RIVER FALLS          0.33        0700 AM  44.38N 90.84W
BLACK RIVER FALLS RAWS     0.28        0700 AM  44.30N 90.84W

...JUNEAU COUNTY...
NEW LISBON 4ENE            0.03        0700 AM  43.91N 90.07W
NECEDAH 5WNW               0.02        0700 AM  44.06N 90.17W

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
LA CROSSE WFO              0.77        0700 AM  43.82N 91.19W
LA CROSSE 5SE              0.69        0700 AM  43.77N 91.15W
HOLLAND                    0.64        0700 AM  43.97N 91.29W
WEST SALEM 1W              0.57        0700 AM  43.90N 91.09W
HOLMEN                     0.49        0700 AM  43.97N 91.27W
HOLMEN 2S                  0.42        0700 AM  43.93N 91.25W
LA CROSSE 4NNW             0.40        0700 AM  43.87N 91.27W
LA CROSSE ASOS             0.35        0700 AM  43.88N 91.26W

...MONROE COUNTY...
CATARACT                   0.20        0700 AM  44.08N 90.85W
WARRENS                    0.14        0700 AM  44.10N 90.59W
TUNNEL CITY                0.14        0700 AM  44.01N 90.57W
SPARTA                     0.11        0700 AM  43.94N 90.82W

...RICHLAND COUNTY...
RICHLAND CENTER 1NW        0.15        0700 AM  43.36N 90.42W

...TAYLOR COUNTY...
LUBLIN DIAMOND LAKE        0.37        0700 AM  45.11N 90.69W
MEDFORD                    0.16        0700 AM  45.13N 90.34W
JUMP RIVER                 0.12        0700 AM  45.36N 90.80W

...TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...
GALESVILLE 3ENE            0.36        0700 AM  44.09N 91.29W
BLAIR 2NW                  0.30        0700 AM  44.31N 91.27W
TREMPEALEAU DAM 6          0.27        0700 AM  44.00N 91.44W
OSSEO                      0.23        0700 AM  44.58N 91.22W
GALESVILLE 2WSW            0.23        0700 AM  44.07N 91.39W
WHITEHALL 2W               0.19        0700 AM  44.37N 91.36W

...VERNON COUNTY...
GENOA                      0.95        0700 AM  43.57N 91.23W
DESOTO 1SE                 0.53        0700 AM  43.41N 91.19W
VIROQUA                    0.43        0700 AM  43.55N 90.90W
WESTBY 3ENE                0.35        0700 AM  43.68N 90.81W
READSTOWN                  0.15        0700 AM  43.45N 90.76W
LA FARGE                   0.11        0700 AM  43.57N 90.64W
HILLSBORO                  0.07        0700 AM  43.65N 90.33W
ONTARIO                    0.03        0700 AM  43.72N 90.59W
ONTARIO 3E                 0.02        0700 AM  43.72N 90.60W


It looks like we may add on another half inch to an inch in some places between today and early Saturday when the storm system responsible for making things wet and unsettled finally moves out of the region. High temperatures in the meantime will remain quite warm with 60s to near 70 expected through next Monday or so.




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					Posted under rainfall amounts				

				

				

						
This post was written by tschmidt on March 20, 2012

						

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Looking Back At A Remarkable February

			

			
First of all, happy first day of meteorological spring!  Even though our weather has been more or less reminiscent of March pretty much all winter long, now it’s actually official.  Taking a look at our very March-like February in Rochester, we ended up receiving less than half the normal amount of snow while rainfall was double the usual total thanks mostly to that very mild and wet storm system that brought us soaking showers on Tuesday night.  Temperatures reached into  in the 30s and 40s each day with just two exceptions last month bringing our average high to 35 degrees and a mean of 27.7 degrees, good for the seventh warmest all-time February in Rochester history.  It ended up being the second warmest winter all-time with a mean temperature of 25.5 degrees which is a degree shy of the record of 26.3 set in 1930-31.


It was the 7th warmest February in Rochester history and not particularly snowy.


Looking ahead at the weekend, we will get a slight taste of winter with some light snow showers and flurries, but little in the way of accumulation is expected.  Next week and even the longer term outlook for the first couple of weeks of March look rather mild with 40s and 50s expected.


 


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					Posted under climate				

				

				

						
This post was written by tschmidt on March 1, 2012

						

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