These were all taken around 1pm this afternoon in/around Hayfield. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued on this storm prior to its arrival in Hayfield and Sargeant, where the largest hailstones fell.

Posted under severe weather

It’s been a while since we’ve had this much blue sky over us. I hope you’re enjoying it.

^^^^Visible Satellite Picture at 9:02am, Wednesday, May 2nd^^^^

Thanks to southerly winds and this sunshine, temperatures are already warmer out there right now than they were by Noon yesterday.

^^^^9:23am, Wednesday, May 2nd Surface Map^^^^

Our current wind out of the southwest in southern MN certainly doesn’t set the table for much severe weather, but winds will be shifting and will become more southerly through the day. With that said, we’re not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak here in southern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa later today. The bulls-eye for severe weather this afternoon and evening is in western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, although I do expect we’ll have a few severe storms in the mix locally, later today. The SPC has put us in the “Slight Risk” for severe storms, while there is a “Moderate Risk” to our southwest.

So, yes, there is a chance for severe storms, but no, the expectation isn’t for every thunderstorm to go severe, for widespread thunderstorm damage, or for a bevy of tornadoes to form. Simply, we should all be aware of the potential for a few severe storms in the mix of otherwise loud but beneficial, heavy-rainers late today. It is indeed May. This is not “dismissing,” but is simply trying to reinforce the fact we needn’t be expecting Reed Timmer and his merry band of  iron-clad chase chariots to roll into town later today – although they may be within a few hundred miles of us this afternoon.

^^^^Today’s Convective Outlook^^^^

^^^^Probabilities of large hail^^^^

It’s not feeling too muggy out there right now. Dew points in the 55-60 degree range make for noticeable humidity but not uncomfortable. Dew points will increase later today, but we still won’t hit the level of “sticky and uncomfortable,” or “unless you drink a lot of water you’re totally going to pass out after running laps at softball practice.”

Still, there will be ample moisture to feed thunderstorm development later today. The 3 basic ingredients for any storm are moisture, lift, and instability. Winds will increase moisture, sunshine is providing further instability, and a warm front and surface low will provide the lift later today.

So….

One of the bigger questions for the development of thunderstorms, and the potentially more intense thunderstorms, is where a warm front will end up by the late afternoon to early evening.

The converging winds along the front will make for a zone of increased lift and wind shear. This means tornadoes can’t be ruled out from the stronger storms – if they develop. The mere mention of this possibility does not mean we’re summoning Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton to drive 10 hours to catch an EF-5, or for the Robin Hood: Men in Tights guy to inadvertently drive right into a tornado. There is, after all, a fine line of rhetoric in this business.

I’m not finding this morning’s model run to be very helpful in the afternoon placement of aforementioned warm front, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on the surface winds later today.

There’s my morning update. I doubt you’ve made it this far, but if you did – thanks! I’m going back to my coffee now. Enjoy the sunshine!

Posted under Rochester, severe weather, weather

A warm front will be surging through north Iowa and into southern Minnesota tonight. Highs are expected to be some of the warmest yet so far this season through Wednesday. That’s not saying much considering how cool it’s been the last 6 weeks, but our atmosphere will definitely be more unstable over the next 48 hours than it’s been in about a month — since strong storms affected north Iowa and central Wisconsin.

I don’t expect storms to be scattered and widespread in southeast Minnesota Tuesday, but I do expect an isolated severe storm or two to develop close to home late Tuesday afternoon or evening. As of 11pm Monday evening, southeast MN was in a slight risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center…rightfully so, I believe with a highly unstable (but tightly capped) atmosphere and a warm front set up close to us. The parent storm system and cold front will move closer to us Wednesday through Thursday and will increase the chance for more widespread storms, some severe. I’ll get more details up on this Tuesday morning, but for now: warm, humid air returns Tuesday, we’ll get plenty of sunshine through most of Tuesday, and storms may develop later in the day followed by more likely t-storms Wednesday and Thursday.

————————————

Select rainfall totals from this morning’s line of strong storms as reported to the NWS La Crosse office.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
942 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2011

...24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...

LOCATION                   RAINFALL    TIME     LAT/LON

IOWA

...ALLPMAKEE COUNTY...
DORCHESTER HIGHWAY 76      0.85        0900 PM  43.42N 91.51W
ION                        0.43        0900 PM  43.11N 91.27W
HARPERS FERRY              0.30        0900 PM  43.17N 91.24W

...CHICKASAW COUNTY...
IONIA                      0.63        0900 PM  43.03N 92.50W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
MCGREGOR                   0.44        0900 PM  43.02N 91.17W
MARQUETTE                  0.40        0900 PM  43.04N 91.21W
ELKADER                    0.30        0900 PM  42.84N 91.40W
LITTLEPORT                 0.06        0900 PM  42.75N 91.37W
GARBER                     0.02        0900 PM  42.74N 91.26W

...FAYETTE COUNTY...
ELDORADO                   0.58        0900 PM  43.05N 91.81W
OELWEIN AWOS               0.10        0900 PM  42.68N 91.97W

...FLOYD COUNTY...
CHARLES CITY AWOS          0.56        0900 PM  43.07N 92.61W
CHARLES CITY CEDAR RVR     0.41        0900 PM  43.06N 92.67W

...WINNESHIEK COUNTY...
BLUFFTON                   1.05        0900 PM  43.41N 91.90W
DECORAH-UPPER IOWA RVR     0.91        0900 PM  43.30N 91.80W
DECORAH AWOS               0.78        0900 PM  43.28N 91.74W

MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
DODGE CENTER AWOS          0.64        0900 PM  44.03N 92.83W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
CARIMONA                   1.07        0900 PM  43.66N 92.15W
LANESBORO                  0.96        0900 PM  43.72N 91.97W
PRESTON AWOS               0.50        0900 PM  43.68N 92.18W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
MOUND PRAIRIE              0.80        0900 PM  43.78N 91.45W
BROWNSVILLE                0.77        0900 PM  43.70N 91.27W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN-TURTLE CREEK        1.06        0900 PM  43.67N 92.95W
AUSTIN 3S                  0.92        0900 PM  43.62N 93.00W
LANSING                    0.92        0900 PM  43.75N 92.95W
AUSTIN AWOS                0.66        0900 PM  43.67N 92.93W

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
DOVER                      0.94        0900 PM  44.01N 92.11W
ROCHESTER BELTLINE         0.83        0900 PM  43.91N 92.50W
ROCHESTER - BEAR CREEK     0.82        0900 PM  43.92N 92.48W
ROCHESTER - SILVER CREEK   0.70        0900 PM  44.03N 92.42W
ELBA                       0.15        0900 PM  44.05N 92.05W

...WABASHA COUNTY...
KELLOGG                    0.97        0900 PM  44.32N 92.00W
LAKE CITY                  0.41        0900 PM  44.45N 92.26W

...WINONA COUNTY...
DAKOTA                     0.78        0900 PM  43.92N 91.37W
ALTURA                     0.64        0900 PM  44.15N 92.01W
WINONA AWOS                0.56        0900 PM  44.08N 91.70W

WISCONSIN

...BUFFALO COUNTY...
MONDOVI                    0.99        0500 PM  44.56N 91.67W

...CLARK COUNTY...
NEILLSVILLE 1W             0.90        0900 PM  44.56N 90.61W

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
STEUBEN                    0.30        0900 PM  43.18N 90.87W

...GRANT COUNTY...
BOSCOBEL ASOS              0.18        0900 PM  43.16N 90.68W
BOSCOBEL RAWS              0.17        0900 PM  43.15N 90.68W
PLATTEVILLE AWOS           0.02        0900 PM  42.69N 90.44W
BURTON                     0.01        0900 PM  42.72N 90.82W
ROCKVILLE                  0.01        0900 PM  42.73N 90.64W

...JACKSON COUNTY...
BLACK RIVER FALLS          0.50        0900 PM  44.38N 90.84W

...JUNEAU COUNTY...
NECEDAH 1W                 0.67        0900 PM  44.02N 90.08W
NECEDAH 5WNW               0.65        0900 PM  44.06N 90.17W

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
LA CROSSE ASOS             0.78        0900 PM  43.88N 91.26W

...TAYLOR COUNTY...
LUBLIN DIPMOND LAKE        0.87        0900 PM  45.11N 90.69W

...VERNON COUNTY...
READSTOWN                  1.15        0900 PM  43.45N 90.76W
HILLSBORO                  1.03        0900 PM  43.65N 90.33W
ONTARIO                    0.85        0900 PM  43.72N 90.59W

Posted under rainfall amounts, severe weather

In a nutshell, the setup for severe weather is looking ripe across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin Wednesday.

An unseasonably strong disturbance in the jet stream is going to be moving across the far northern United States Wednesday. In response, an area of low pressure and cold front will move out of the Dakotas and through Minnesota over the course of the day.

There is plenty of moisture in place ahead of the front. This will combine with strong shear in the atmosphere (thanks to the previously mentioned upper level storm system) to make for a primed setup for severe weather. Shear is the turning of the winds with height.  Wednesday’s winds at the surface will be out of the south. Way up in the jet stream, winds will be out of the west-southwest and nearing 100mph. This change in wind speed and direction (shear) will aid in the development of large, possibly rotating, thunderstorms.

Timing of storms is still questionable. It looks, to me, like the window for storms is a fairly big one, with a chance from 11am through 8pm. Mostly likely time frame is 2-5pm, but that could change on a whim and we’ll be on top of it Wednesday.

Stay tuned to the weather Wednesday. The latest watches and warnings will be displayed as soon as they’re issued, on-air on KTTC. We also have those headlines here at KTTC.com. While you’re there, you can check out Interactive Radar and track storms at home or work.

Posted under severe weather

12:15 am: The heaviest of the line is pushing into western Wisconsin, and working through NE Iowa.
Heavy rain with possible flash flooding will be a concern with the rest of the line and the rain behind it. We do have a Flash Flood Watch up through Sunday morning, and several counties are under Flash Flood Warnings.

Earlier:

Severe T-Storm Watch until 3 AM

More severe weather is anticipated today. Here’s the latest details:

What: Severe T-Storm Watch until 3 AM

Where: Our entire viewing area

Why: Line of storms heading into our area from the west. Large hail, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall will be likely will any of the severe storms.

Earlier updates:

Tornado Watch until 8pm

What: Tornado Watch until 8 pm; Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning

Who: The Tornado Watch stretches from the counties of Rice (MN) straight south to Franklin (IA) and points west.

The Flash Flood Watch is for the entire area.

Why: Warm front near Iowa/Minnesota border; approaching area of low pressure from the west. Daytime heating causing ripe atmosphere for storms to erupt. Also, high dew points will lead to potential for heavy rainfall.

When: Activity is expected later this evening and overnight.

Stay tuned!

Posted under Uncategorized

10:00pm: This’ll be my last update on here tonight. The tornado watch is being chopped back as the line of severe storms pushes through northern Iowa. The worst is over, and look for this activity to be out of the entire area by midnight, 1 am or so.

9:45pm: New T-Storm Warnings:

9:15pm: New T-Storm Warning for Cerro Gordo, Franklin counties

9:00pm: New T-Storm Warning for Floyd & Mitchell counties

8:45pm: New Tornado Warning for Cerro Gordo and Worth counties

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CERRO GORDO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...
  WORTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHWOOD...OR 32 MILES
  NORTH OF MASON CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTHWOOD...MANLY...HANLONTOWN...KENSETT...MASON CITY AIRPORT...
  GRAFTON...PLYMOUTH AND ROCK FALLS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 196 AND 218.

8:30pm: Tornado warnings continue for Freeborn, Faribault, Blue Earth, and Steele.

New Severe T-Storm warning for some of our Iowa counties:

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HANCOCK…NORTHERN CERRO GORDO…KOSSUTH…WINNEBAGO AND WORTH
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT…

AT 827 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL…AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF NORTHWOOD TO 20
MILES NORTHWEST OF BANCROFT…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  NORTHWOOD…LAKE MILLS…BUFFALO CENTER…BANCROFT…MANLY…FOREST
  CITY…RAKE…SCARVILLE…LEDYARD…SWEA CITY…LAKOTA…
  THOMPSON…JOICE…KENSETT…FENTON…LELAND…GRAFTON…LONE
  ROCK…HANLONTOWN AND FERTILE.

7:20 pm: Tornado warnings for Goodhue County  & Severe T-Storm Warning for Wabasha & Buffalo

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
  NORTHEASTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…
  SOUTHERN PIERCE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…
  SOUTHWESTERN PEPIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 713 PM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR HAGER
  CITY…OR OVER HAGER CITY…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
  ESDAILE…
  BAY CITY…
  MAIDEN ROCK…
  FRONTENAC…
  PLUM CITY…
  STOCKHOLM…
  PORCUPINE…
  PEPIN…
  ELLA…

7:15pm: For the Austin/Albert Lea area and west: We’re closely watching an intense cell that’s heading into Waseca County, along with a developing line that stretches back to the west from there. That stuff looks like it’s going to head toward the Albert Lea/Austin area in the next hour or so. We have had a confirmed tornado near New Ulm with that monster of a cell.

Folks further east (east of I-35): We’re also watching a powerful line of severe storms heading south out of the Twin Cities. We have heard of wind gusts close to 70 mph and hail out of that.

Stay tuned.

Warm, humid air, numerous surface boundaries, and a mid-upper level disturbance spinning our way from the Dakotas are combining to make for a volatile atmosphere over southern Minnesota and north Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch until Midnight because of the severe weather threat. More to come as the day progresses…

Posted under severe weather

Have you wanted to learn how to become a storm spotter – one of the people that helps relay what’s going on outside during severe weather? The National Weather Service offers many classes during the spring months around the area, and they’re free. Consider taking one – they’re fun, informational, and are even good to re-take if you haven’t in a couple of years.

Here are the links to area classes (some have happened already, but there are many more!)

La Crosse’s classes
Twin Cities’ classes
Des Moines’ classes

Posted under KTTC, severe weather

As we’ve been plugging the last couple days, we’re looking at a change in the pattern and with that a good shot at severe weather. Unfortunately, there’s an accompanying excessive rain threat as a front is going to be washing back and forth across southern Minnesota to north Iowa. Thunderstorm activity will primarily be focused on the front, bringing repeated thunderstorms to the same areas.

This morning’s thundershower activity is relatively tranquil, but more activity is expected this afternoon and there is a likelihood that whatever develops later today will quickly become severe. The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday and Sunday. I don’t expect rain all weekend, but when there are storms, they’ll pack a punch.

We’ll have all the latest warnings and watches right here at www.kttc.com and on KTTC as soon as they’re issued.

Posted under severe weather

The SPC still has us in a slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

A strong area of low pressure will pass across the upper Midwest, bringing first a warm front, followed by a cold front through our area.

The dynamics are certainly there for severe weather, but a few x-factors are going into the mix as well, such as morning cloud cover, cloudy periods throughout the day (i.e. how much heating we’ll see), and the timing of the cold front.

All said and done, if storms do erupt, all severe weather modes will be possible. It appears a tornadic threat could exist for a few hours in the evening, before transitioning over to a damaging wind event. Stay tuned!

Posted under severe weather

Some of the storm reports from this evening….

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
..DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TORNADO          1 SW EASTON             43.76N 93.91W
06/21/2009                   FARIBAULT          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM     TORNADO          2 N EASTON              43.79N 93.90W
06/21/2009                   FARIBAULT          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOUCHED DOWN SOME DEBRIS.

0736 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E ST CLAIR            44.08N 93.84W
06/21/2009                   BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME ROTATION.

0806 PM     TORNADO          2 S MANSFIELD           43.54N 93.61W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOUCHDOWN…PLUS UP TO 5 FUNNEL CLOUDS.

0810 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SE MADISON LAKE       44.18N 93.77W
06/21/2009                   WASECA             MN   STORM CHASER

            ROTATING AND DROPING DOWN AND UP.

0831 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 S ALDEN               43.66N 93.57W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE QUARTERS ON WAY TO THE GROUND.

0832 PM     TORNADO          WSW BARODA              43.72N 93.68W
06/21/2009                   FARIBAULT          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. NOW LIFTING AND REFORMING.

0835 PM     TORNADO          1 SW ALDEN              43.66N 93.59W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 PM     TORNADO          1 W CONGER              43.62N 93.56W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOUCH DOWN SOME DEBRIS.

0859 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 S MANCHESTER          43.71N 93.45W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE QUARTERS TO THE GROUND.

0918 PM     TORNADO          2 SSE TWIN LAKES        43.53N 93.41W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN…NOW RAPIDLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD WHICH
            HAS BECOME RAIN WRAPPED.

0924 PM     TORNADO          1 N TWIN LAKES          43.58N 93.42W
06/21/2009                   FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SECOND BRIEF TOUCHDOWN BEFORE WRAPPING BACK INTO RAIN
            SWEPT CLOUDS.

&&

$$

CARLYON

11:00 p.m. update: Tornado watch has been allowed to expire. I’m working on getting a list of the reports to post here.

10:00 p.m. update: lots of reports of brief touchdowns and funnel clouds around the Albert Lea area. This is why the tornado warnings are going for so long around Freeborn County. The latest tornado warning goes until 11 p.m. for SE Freeborn County. Note – I have not heard or received any reports of damage - these are very weak tornadoes. Still need to be taking the proper precautions in the Freeborn County area, however!

Tornado watch extended until 11 pm for a many counties.

7:30 p.m. update: Reports of a tornado on the ground 2 miles northeast of Easton. I’m not sure if folks get us out there, but I’m going to type this anyway. That would be in Faribault county.

Tornado watch expanded a few more counties in southern Minnesota. Now included are Mower, Dodge, and Howard. Also until 10 p.m., like the other counties.

7:00 p.m. update: Tornado warning for Faribault county until 7:30 p.m..trained weather spotters have reported a funnel cloud 4 miles se of Delevan. This storm is headed off to the NE at 15 mph. This storm has also, according to trained spotters, produced a tornado 1 mile SW of Easton.

6:45 p.m. update: So far the tornado warnings and reports of touchdowns have been in central Iowa, around the Iowa Falls area. Storms are starting to get underway in south central Minnesota and north Iowa. They will continue to affect such places as Mason City and Albert Lea within the next 30 minutes to hour or so. 

3:30 p.m. update:  Tornado watch issued until 10pm for the counties outlined by the red. Stay tuned…

Earlier updates:

Showers with maybe some rumbles of thunder will pass through the northern Iowa/southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin region this morning. Those will taper off from south to north by the afternoon.

While clouds have us “gooed” up this morning (clouds = bad if you’re looking for good convection), current satellite images show some clearing building into central and southern Iowa already. If this clearing makes it far enough north today – i.e., into our neck of the woods – that, combined with a very moist and unstable airmass interacting with a warm front and surface low pressure could lead to the development of severe storms. Time frame would be the late afternoon into the late evening hours.

At this time, my thinking is if anything develops, it would be around roughly a Clarion-Mason City-Decorah line. Anything looks possible – including some isolated tornadoes – especially in north Iowa.

I’ll keep you updated as we get through the day. Enjoy your Father’s Day and the first day of summer! We continue under daily severe weather threats through mid-week. With this hot and very moist airmass coming to set up shop on Monday and Tuesday, along with sunshine, any disturbance should be able to quickly fire storms.

Posted under severe weather