While all eyes continue to watch Tropical Storm Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico, we in the Upper Mississippi Valley are looking ahead to the end of the week when that storm may get close enough to actually impact our weather.  At this point, the National Hurricane Center’s five day cone forecast spreads the potential of rain in our direction by Friday night or Saturday morning.  With that said, the probability seems somewhat remote as it appears Isaac will first weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday after making landfall in the Gulf coast Tuesday evening, and then begin to move eastward by the time it moves as far north as the mid Mississippi Valley around St. Louis.  The best case scenario as suggested by some computer model runs over the weekend, was for Isaac to produce some scattered thunderstorms in far southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and through Chicago on its northern flank.  Right now that doesn’t look as likely, but it’s not completely impossible, so we will be watching, waiting, and hoping for some rainfall from this storm system.  The current rainfall deficit for north Iowa for the past year is around 10 inches and that area is in Extreme Drought while southern Minnesota is under Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions with deficits for the summer around four or five inches.

The current forecast track for Isaac. It's depicted here at a hurricane track as the storm is expected to reach hurricane status before making landfall late Tuesday.

While it currently seems unlikely that Isaac will bring much rain to our region, there is still a lot of time before the storm gets close enough to directly impact the Midwest. There is just a slight chance for some rain for our area from Isaac at this point in our weekend forecast.

Posted under Tropical weather

Things are getting more and more active in central and western Atlantic Ocean right now as we approach the peak of hurricane season.  On Tuesday, we discussed the disturbance that was likely to become a tropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean west of the Cape Verde Islands as well as the projected path of Hurricane Katia.  Well, the latest information on that region indicates that a tropical storm indeed has formed and is being called Maria.  This storm is expected to remain a tropical storm over the next few days as it approaches the West Indies and the longer range computer modeling suggests that it will veer to the east before reaching the southeastern U.S. early next week.  Katia is expected to do the same as it drifts northwestward between Bermuda and North Carolina and then moves quickly to the northeast, narrowly missing Newfoundland and then getting caught up in the jet stream.  After that, it’s going to travel across the Atlantic and by Monday it’ll end up somewhere between Iceland and northwestern Scotland, possibly reaching the Faroe Islands off the coast of Norway as a hurricane before weakening.  Image that: a hurricane in northern Europe!  We’ll have to wait and see of course, but it will be kind of interesting to see what does end up happening.  A tropical storm last year held together long enough to brush the southern end of Greenland before becoming an extratropical storm system, producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds for that region.

Katia is expected to remain a category one hurricane for several more days, eventually making its way to northwestern Europe.

Maria is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next few days in the western Atlantic before possibly moving back to the east and away from the U.S.

Posted under Tropical weather

Tropical Storm Irene has the potential to be two firsts.  It could be the first tropical cyclone to hit the United States Since 2009. Last year there were zero tropical storm or hurricane landfalls.  Irene has the the potential to do that and the potential to become the first hurricane of the 2011 hurricane season.  The second is very likely to happen.  As of Sunday evening, Irene has winds of 60 mph.  To become a hurricane, maximum sustained winds needs to be 74 mph or greater.

This was a satellite image taken from about 1:00 this afternoon.

Here is the current forecast path as predicted by the National Hurricane Center.

Posted under Atlantic Hurricane Season

Here’s something you don’t see every day, the National Hurricane Center’s current 5 day forecast projection places what is now Hurricane Igor over southern Greenland by Friday, but as a weaker non-tropical storm system, but one still capable of producing tropical storm force winds.  The hurricane is now a category one storm heading north toward eastern Canada.  It’ll likely maintain its hurricane status (maximum sustained winds of 74mph) through tomorrow night as it brushes past Newfoundland and then weaken to a tropical storm.  What will then likely happen, as Igor moves into cooler waters of the North Atlantic, is a transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm, meaning Igor will draw more enegry from the atmosphere than the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  Even as an extratropical storm, it’ll still be interesting to watch Igor making landfall in Greenland and affecting portions of the arctic that don’t often experience storm systems of tropical origin.  The forecast for Friday places Igor at the southern end of the huge, glacier covered island packing winds of greater than 40 miles per hour.   Hopefully the local population and adventurous tourists in that region will be prepared when Igor arrives as waves will be rather choppy and dangerous.  Just last month in western Greenland, a group of 27 sea kayakers were caught in a similar storm and had to be rescued.

The current National Hurricane Center forecast calling for a slight chance of Igor making it up to Greenland and the Greenland Sea.

Posted under Atlantic Hurricane Season

There’s a lot to talk about in the world of weather today (but isn’t there always something?)

Probability of hurricane force winds

For those with interests in the tropics: For info on Earl, Fiona, Guston, and any other potential tropical formations: visit the National Hurricane Center page. Earl is a Category 4 monster hurricane with winds in excess of 140 mph. While it’s not expected to make direct landfall along the eastern seaboard, it will bring a glancing blow of potentially hurricane force winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf to the coast (see graphic on the left).

Also, for the geek in you, you can find some pretty cool NASA stuff on Earl (think, satellite and beyond!) by clicking here.

August climate stuff: it’s official – Rochester’s average temperature was 5° above normal (officially: 72.7° was the average temperature). And yes, it was sticky, warm, and whatnot – but Rochester didn’t chalk up a single 90° reading. Typically, there’s 2 in August. We did have a bunch of days close to it, however.

In September, Rochester’s average temperature drops about 10° by September 30th; we usually see our first sub-32° low of the season, and we have a little over 3″ of precip. Oh yes, and we lose nearly an hour and a half of daylight between the 1st and 30th.

Our forecast today will feature some scattered showers with embedded t-showers. Winds will pick up late tonight and Friday will have an October feel to it: highs in the mid 60s, blustery, gusty NW winds, mostly cloudy skies, and some spotty showers. We warm things up slightly for Saturday…call it seasonable for Sunday…and near 80° for Monday (with maybe a few t-showers).

….was I supposed to talk about frogs? Hmm. Well, just watch out for the buggers crossing the roads.

Posted under Atlantic Hurricane Season, climate

Maine had their first Hurricane Watch in…count it…17 years! You’d have to go all the way back to 1991 for the last. Hurricane Kyle (err…now Tropical Storm Kyle) was the one sparking the watch; it’s a minimum Cat. 1 Hurricane, and is expected to affect parts of Maine, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick as it moves north tonight. Now that’s once in a blue moon.

Closer to home, the storm system that will be responsible for sending a surge of cooler air into the area starting tomorrow is announcing it’s arrival with a good, solid area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Look for this to move through overnight, with some lingering in the morning. Then, the cool air is on!

Posted under KTTC, weather

Sorry for the bad rhymes. We try to be funny..

 Ike made landfall Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane near Gavelston. The huge storm packed winds over 100 mph and generated storm surge 10-20 feet. It quickly weakened as it moved over land, but is now a heavy rain maker across the deep south, especially Texas and Arkansas. Randy posted a wealth of information yesterday on where to find/see stuff on Ike from the heart of where it’s happening.

Thanks to Ike, and strong southerly flow in the atmosphere, a plume of rich, tropical Gulf moisture has made its way all the way to the mid section of the country. You probably felt it today – just way too humid outside. This juicy, continuous feed of moisture is helping to feed heavy rains across the heart of the United States (see the radar image). Ike will quickly move northeast, but as a disturbance passing through our area, it will help to “kick” Ike to our south and east. Therefore, we’ll miss out on the chunk of rain that we need.

A cold front will sweep through our area this evening – the humidity has already dropped in Rochester, and the winds have switched to the northwest – and this will make for a fairly raw and breezy Sunday. Plenty of clouds will still be around, and we’ll see chances for sprinkles/drizzle/isolated thundershowers tomorrow. Highs will struggle to get to 60°, but warmer weather – and sun – is on tap for next week.

Posted under KTTC, Tropical weather, weather

Whatever your choice is of keeping dry from the rain, while simultaneously managing to keep you warm, grab that for Monday. We’ll be expecting a good dose of rain, especially in the afternoon. It’ll be a good soaker, especially across parts of north and central Iowa. We could be picking up over 0.50 – 0.75″ of rain in some places. But under cloud cover, it’ll be chilly and raw – only into the middle 50s for highs. Hang tight, because “warmer” conditions (60s, 70s) will be arriving by midweek. We’re looking to get back to normal, if not above by next weekend – but that is all up in the air yet, with the uncertainty of where Ike will end up.

Posted under KTTC, weather

It seems a bit strange to think that a hurricane could ever affect our weather here in the Upper Mississippi Valley, but yes, today’s clouds and light rain have been a product of what was once Hurricane Gustav, the same storm that battered the Gulf Coast only a few days ago.  Thankfully, Gustav’s impact on our weather has been minimal with only scant amounts of rainfall measured in far southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and in southwestern Wisconsin.  The clouds are doing more damage than anything else at this point, as they’re working to keep our temperatures rather cool for this time of the year with mainly 60s in store for the afternoon.  Even though it was a glancing blow and a minor one at that, Gustav’s rainfall in this region is the first such precipitation from a former hurricane to reach northward into our local area since Gilbert in 1988.  Kind of exciting to think of it that way, eh?   

We’ll get a break from the clouds and rain for about a day before a few showers and thunderstorms move in from the west for Friday night and possibly Saturday.  Look for more of this cool, fall-like weather to stick around into next week with more 60s than 70s for daytime highs.

Posted under Tropical weather, weather

10:00 p.m.: Gustav has weakened to a tropical storm. It’s still packing winds of 60 mph, but will continue to weaken as it dumps torrential rains across the deep south. We could tap in to some of that moisture by the end of this week. 

Hope you enjoyed your summer-y Labor Day!

9:00 a.m.: Gustav weakened slightly to an upper-end Category 2 storm overnight. It still has winds of 110 mph; hurricane force winds that extend 70 miles from the eye; and is expected to bring a storm surge of 10-14 feet, with up to 20″ of rain possible in some areas. The eye is nearing the Louisiana coastline, with landfall expected late this morning/early this afternoon. Click here for more.

For us, quiet but summer-like weather for Labor Day. Warm, breezy, and humid, with plenty of sun as we welcome in September. Enjoy, as chances for rain return Tuesday, along with much cooler and more normal temperatures (ala early fall).

Posted under KTTC, Tropical weather, weather