The past two weeks have certainly been memorable for us as our weather has been nothing short of comfortable and refreshing.  This spell of cooler, drier, and at times, fall-like weather has been quite a departure from the previous seven weeks or so that featured scorching heat and intense bouts of heavy humidity that forced many of us to run the air conditioning nonstop.  Our weather remains quiet and comfortable today, but there are signs that changes are ahead in the not too distant future as more typical August-like days lie before us on the late August calendar.  High pressure is beginning to glide away to the east today, allowing a slight southerly breeze to work with our wall-to-wall sunshine to warm us quickly to more seasonably warm temperatures locally as highs will be near 80° this afternoon.  That warming trend will continue tomorrow as the jet stream flattens out and shifts a bit northward and warmer, slightly more humid works its way back into the weather picture.  A storm system to the west will trigger some rain and thunderstorms chances later tomorrow through much of Thursday while temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s and our air will feel more noticeably humid.  This more summer-like weather looks to be sticking around through the weekend and for most of next week, almost as if Mother Nature is trying to balance things out, making up for the September-like weather of the past two weeks.

The jet stream has been bucking southward recently, allowing cooler, more Canadian style air into the region.

The jet stream pattern over the next week or so leading up to the last portion of August is going to be a little flatter, more northward oriented, allowing warmer, more humid weather into the region.

Posted under weather

Things are feeling hot and steamy as we kick off the last full week in the month of July today, but the good news is we have a few chances for much needed rain and some cooler weather in the forecast.  Right now, a disturbance is producing some scattered showers and may produce some thunderstorms today and tonight along a stalled front that is draped across our area.  There may be a few heavier downpours tonight in some of the stronger storms.  There will be hit and miss stuff through tomorrow as well, but I think the better looking scenario is ahead on Wednesday as a potent cold front approaches from the west.  That may end up being the wettest, stormiest day of the week with a chance for strong thunderstorms as well as some soaking rainfall.  Behind that front, we’ll go from having highs in the mid and upper 80s tomorrow and Tuesday to the low 80s with lower humidity in the air for the tail end of the week and for Saturday.  It looks like that cool down will last for two or three days with a little more heat and humidity possibly returning Sunday and for the first part of next week.

Hot, steamy, unsettled weather is the rule to start the week and things will remain warmer than normal through the middle of the week as the jet stream stays north of us.

The jet stream is expected to buckle southward while a surface cold front pushes through the area later in the week, allowing for a brief cool down for Friday and Saturday as highs will be near 80.

Posted under heat

The front that began to push through the area last evening, sparking a handful of thunderstorms in the evening across southeastern Minnesota is now draped across the Minnesota-Iowa border and may again act as the focus of more activity today.  Right now areas south of the front are sweltering in the 90s with heat indices approaching triple figures again while areas to the north area feeling a little than the past few days as 80s are much more common.  A disturbance riding along that front will produce some more thunderstorms across the area through the afternoon and evening before exiting the area to the east later tonight and making us then wait until late in the weekend to get some more much needed rain.  A few of today’s storms may become severe with strong, gusty winds and perhaps a little hail as well while a brief downpour can’t be ruled out in some of the heavier thundershowers.  Rainfall totals as a whole aren’t expected to be large, however, with up to a quarter of an inch possible.  If we can get through the next few days that will be hot, sunny, and rain-free, there will be a few more rain chances possibly showing up for the upcoming week, but then again it could be another mirage as this summer has certainly been desert-like for many of us.

Our entire area is in the Storm Prediction Center's "Slight Risk" category of severe weather for today and tonight as some of the thunderstorms locally may produce some strong winds or hail.

Posted under rainfall, severe weather

We’ve reached what looks to be the hottest day of the week and possibly the entire summer today as our Independence Day forecast is calling for near record heat and incredibly warm heat indices.  Look for bright sunshine through the afternoon with a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two and high temperatures approaching 100°.  The record high in Rochester today is 98°, which seems in reach, in contrast to most of our records this month that were set in the “Dust Bowl” era and are considerably hotter.  An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through today and will remain in effect until 10:00 Friday night when a slightly cooler air mass will begin to sink into the area behind a cold front.  High temperatures tomorrow and Friday will be in the low to mid 90s while readings over the weekend will drop back to more seasonable 80s.

It's going to be a warm, sultry evening for viewing fireworks as heat indices will barely fall from the 90s after sunset and winds will remain light. It's a good idea to pack some water for hydration as well as some insect repellent.

Posted under Holidays

We’re enjoying such a gorgeous, comfortable day to start the week today with bright sunshine and a dry atmosphere, but we do still have plenty of more typical summer-like heat and humidity in the forecast, so those enjoying this weather will have to soak up as much of it as they can this afternoon.  Right now strong Canadian high pressure anchored to our east is pumping that cool, dry air into our local area from the heart of the Great Lakes, but as it drifts away to the southeast tonight, its influence on our weather will wane.  A little more heat will build in tomorrow while humidity will remain reasonable for one more day and then a major blast of heat is expected to reach of Wednesday and Thursday.  The jet stream aloft will push northward, allowing this batch of central plains heat to blow into the Upper Mississippi Valley, so upper 80s and some 90s will be the rule for the foreseeable future, making the end of of June very July-like indeed.

Hot, humid air will blow into the Upper Midwest Wednesday and will likely stick around through the weekend and possibly next week as well.

Posted under climate

Even before sunrise this morning, we had heat indices in the 80s and 90s across the area while temperatures were uncomfortably warm, but not yet downright hot.  It was the other half of that heat index equation, the humidity, that was making things so unbearable.  In fact, last night just before sunset we registered some of the highest dew point temperatures I’ve ever seen and certainly the highest we’ve recorded this year.  For instance, at 8pm Sunday night, Rochester had a dew point of 81° and Austin had a mind boggling 84°!  That is absolutely unheard of!  This is more humid than the Gulf Coast usually gets in the summer!  Dew points in the 70s are typically the highest most places get in the summer.  We get to that level of humidity a handful of days annually, but this spell is extra significant.  The main factors going into our additional influx of moisture in the air is recent heavy rains combined with corn and soy bean crops that are reaching maturity and thus giving off moisture through a process known as evapotranspiration.  A viewer posed the question “what’s the highest dew point ever recorded?”  Good question, but not one that is easily answered.  It’s not a statistic that commonly shows up in record books except in certain National Weather Service reporting sites.  We do know that Rochester has reached a dew point of 83° in its history (back in the 80s) and came within a degree of tying that mark last July.  The summer of 2010, incidentally, was one of the all-time most humid on average in all of Rochester’s history, so it wasn’t just your imagination…it really was uncomfortable!  It’ll be interesting to see what this week’s oppressive humidity does to our record books in that regard.  I did find this passage on USA Today’s “Weather Extremes” webpage.  It’s a Q and A talking about the highest dew point ever measured in the world and it makes me glad I don’t live in the Persian Gulf!

Q: What’s the highest dew point ever recorded?

A: The dew point temperature, which is based on how much water vapor is in the air, is a good measure of how humid it feels. A dew point above 70°F is quite humid. Very high dew points are often found near shallow, subtropical seas. Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on the Persian Gulf, recorded a dew point of 95°F on July 8, 2003. In the USA, the highest dew points (above 80°F) occur near the Gulf of Mexico and in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

See our page on Understanding humidity for more about the dew point temperature.

(Answered by meteorologist Bob Henson, a writer at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and the author of The Rough Guide to Weather, June 9, 2005.)

Look at those numbers! The heat index is around 150 in Dhahran on this chart. The highest ever heat index in Dhahran was 172 in that 2003 situation.

At any rate, we’re looking at some incredibly humid (and hot) weather for the next couple of days.  Heat indices will commonly be in the 100 to 120 range this week and an Excessive Heast Warning is still in effect.  However, the humdity may drop off slightly on Wednesday while temperatures remain quite warm, mainly because of some extra mixing in the atmosphere from gustier winds.  Dew points will then be in the 70s instead of the lower 80s, basically.  Later in the week, a couple of cold fronts will push through the area, dropping the temperatures a bit, and yes, drawing in some slightly drier, less moisture laden air.

Posted under heat

We’ve been talking for a few days about a long duration heat wave that will be gripping our area starting this weekend and now as the tropical warm air mass approaches the region today, the National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Watch for the entire area effective Sunday through Wednesday evening.  A warm front is slowly pushing through southern Minnesota today, acting as the focus for some thunderstorm activity and this looks to keep things unsettled through tonight.  Expect a couple of round of thunderstorms this morning and afternoon with stronger, more widespread thunderstorms this evening and then perhaps again late tonight with strong winds, some hail, and locally heavy rains possible.  Behind this front, we’ll have drier weather for Saturday afternoon and then Sunday.  Highs will be in the upper 80s Saturday with lower 90s in store for Sunday and most of next week.  Heat indices will be in the 100s for that long stretch of hot days, making for a potentially dangerous situation for those not taking appropriate precautions with the heat. 

Here’s a link to a site that offers some more information on heat related illnesses.

Heat indices will range from 100 to 115 during the heat wave next week. Even at night, hot and humid conditions will persist.

Posted under heat

We sure have a gorgeous weather picture in the region today thanks to some cool, dry air that has blown in from the north thanks to a broad area of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes.  If you love September weather, today is the day to get outside and enjoy as this weather is almost reminiscent of late summer or early fall with temperatures in the 70s and low humidity across the Upper Mississippi Valley.  As you might expect this scenario is going to be short lived, however, as we are anticipating the arrival of a warm front from the wet in the next couple of days that will bring back some more seasonable heat and humidity, eventually pushing the mercury into the 90s once again.  We’ll have sunny skies through today with a slight east breeze that will continue to draw in that dry, comfortable air for a bit longer.  Changes begin to take place tonight as a couple of showers and thunderstorms will show up after midnight associated with a warm front that will eventually spread a few more thunderstorns into the area tomorrow and tomorrow night before it completely pushes through the area on Friday, bringing that summertime heat to the area.  We’ll have highs in the 80s by Friday and then near 90 degree heat on Saturday before low to mid 90s become the rule for four or five days between Sunday and the middle of next week.

While we enjoy some mild temperatures today, the hottest weather is confined to the southern and southwestern U.S.

The jetstream will shift northward by Sunday, allowing intense heat to surge northward. Our highs will be in the 90s and will likely remain rather hot for several days under that ridge.

Posted under heat

We have a warm, humid, and slightly unsettled weekend ahead of us starting with a slight chance for a few afternoon thunderstorms in our area today and high temperatures in the mid 80s.  The rest of the weekend looks similar, with mid 80s and the threat for thunderstorms both tomorrow and Sunday as a storm system from the west begins to slide into the Upper Mississippi Valley.  However, if you’re looking to escape the heat and humidity by heading up north, you’ll enjoy marginal improvements in both of those categories as northern Minnesota will still feature lower 80s and somewhat lighter humidity, but there will be some unsettled weather at times associated with the same upcoming storm system that will impact the entire region.  The best chance for thunderstorms will be tonight through tomorrow and possibly tomorrow night as well with severe storms possible during the afternoon hours tomorrow.  Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible in northern and western Minnesota tomorrow.  That severe weather threat will slide southward for Sunday, encompassing the bulk of our local viewing area with the same threats from the storms affecting southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Sunday afternoon and evening. 

Here’s the northern Minnesota “cabin forecast”:

The forecast for today up north. Incidentally, there may be some T-storms to add to the forecast for tonight.

The forecast for tomorrow looks a bit more unsettled.

Skies will clear Sunday and things look pleasant.

The SPC has placed a large portion of the region to our northwest in a slight risk for severe weather. The slight risk will be over our local area on Sunday.

Posted under Uncategorized, weather

We’ve certainly had our share of hot days this season so far, but today is perhaps feeling the hottest as near record temperatures combined with extreme humidity are creating heat indices in the 100s.  An Excessive Heat Warning has been posted for much of the local area because of this unhealthy or even potentially life threatening situation as heat exhaustion or other heat related illnesses may occur if you don’t take precautions and stay hydrated.  Staying in air conditioning and keeping pets and children out of the heat is important as well.  A month ago we experienced the hottest day in more than 20 years, and while we reached triple digits in much of the area, today’s scenario has the potential to be more of a problem for us as humidity is much more prevalent in the atmosphere, giving us slightly higher heat indices.  It’s going to feel like it’s 110 at times today and this evening.  The forecast high for Rochester today is 99° and the record is 97° set in 1911, so it’s very possible that this record as well as some other local records will be broken.  A cold front will push through the area tonight, bringing an end to this heat wave, but may also trigger some evening thunderstorms.  Behind the front, we’ll enjoy lower humidity levels in the air and more seasonable highs in the 80s for the weekend.

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until this evening for much of the area including Rochester, La Crosse, and Decorah. Heat indices will top out around 110 to 115 today.

Posted under heat