We’ve been dealing with some nasty, raw, rainy weather today and it’s only going to get more unpleasant and more difficult to deal with over the next couple of days thanks to the arrival of a large, dynamic storm system from the west.  We’ve already been inundated with rain from this system today and will continue to experience light to moderate rainfall through the afternoon and evening.  Because of the heavy rainfall earlier today and concerns with heavy runoff from these showers, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch effective until 7:00 PM Thursday for a large portion of our viewing area.

Up to three inches of total rainfall may fall this week in the affected counties, causing localized flooding.

the next phase of this storm system will be a gradual transition to winter weather late tonight through Wednesday and Thursday.  We’ll first see a transition from rain to freezing rain late tonight into early Wednesday morning with some ice accumulation possible, especially on tree branches and power lines.  By midday and afternoon Wednesday, it looks to eb a light rain event for most of us.  There will be another changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and light snow Wednesday night with mainly snow falling by Thursday morning.  During the day Thursday three to six inches of snow may accumulate in southeastern Minnesota with heavier amounts to the north and northwest in the Twin Cities area and western Minnesota where six to twelve inches will be possible.  Locations along the Iowa border and in northern Iowa itself can expected three inches or less by the time the snow tapers off Thursday evening.

Those in the Winter Weather Advisory can expect freezing rain at times Tuesday night, through parts of Wednesday, and Wednesday night, and then three to six inches of snow Thursday. Areas south of the Winter Weather Advisory will see lighter amounts.

Posted under flooding, winter weather

 While we’re finally enjoying a dry day with a little sunshine in the area today, two commodities that have been lacking in our weather for just about the entire month so far, we’re still looking ahead toward a weekend storm system that may cause some more headaches for us.  Ahead of its arrival late Saturday night, we’ll enjoy a peaceful, seasonably cool Friday with a little more wind and some low 30s for Saturday…basically the calm before the storm.  However, things will begin to get more difficult for us around midnight Saturday night when a little freezing rain is expected to develop ahead of the center of low pressure to our southwest.  We may stick with freezing rain and sleet for the night, possibly until mid morning before warmer air allows us to transition to light rain as temps will be in the mid 30s.  There will still be a chance for some snow at the tail end of the storm system for us by late Sunday evening.  Accumulations may reach three or four inches in some spots locally by Monday morning when things are expected to dry out, but until the system gets a little closer, we won’t be able to pin down exactly who will get what. As you can see below, the heavier snow is expected to be to our northwest as Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a huge chunk of the Upper Midwest in advance of the system. The Twin Cities area is looking at anywhere from four or five inches to seven or eight inches, depending on the eventual track of the storm while areas to the northwest will see higher amounts, possibly as much as a foot in some locations.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for Sunday to our north and a Blizzard Watch is in effect for western Minnesota and part of South Dakota as heavy snow and strong winds will make travel very difficult in those areas.

Posted under winter weather

After a week in the deep freeze, it looks our temperatures over the weekend will climbing nicely into the 30 degree range by Sunday.  The downside to that is instead of light snow Sunday, we’re expecting something that may be a bit more treacherous.  A storm system from the southwest will spread a wintry mixture of precipitation across the area during the day Sunday through early Sunday night, possibly coating the landscape with ice and perhaps a little light snow.  Right now it looks like things will get going in the mid morning hours with some freezing rain or sleet in the area and in the afternoon and evening there may be more of a mixed bag of precipitation types.  The National Weather Service may end up issuing some advisories for this event, so stay tuned for more on this as we go through the weekend.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s freezing rain probability map for Sunday shows a strong potential for freezing rain and the resulting ice across the entire region.

Posted under winter weather

Here’s the latest on the potent winter storm that is expected to reach our area for tomorrow and Wednesday:

While there are several things that may change in the next day or so, possibly resulting in an altogether different outcome in our local weather, the current forecast outlook for the next major storm system in our region is looking a little warmer and wetter for us.  The latest forecast data suggests that the storm system moving in for tomorrow and hanging around for most of Wednesday will take a fairly northerly track, keeping us in the “warm sector” where rain, sleet, and freezing rain will be the primary concerns while the heavy snow potential will be confined to weather and northwestern Minnesota and for the eastern Dakotas.  Incidentally, some locations in that part of the region will deal with blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday as winds will then be reaching 40 miles per hour at times.

Right now, we’re expecting light snow or a mixture of freezing rain and snow to develop in the mid morning hours across the area tomorrow, making for a slippery Tuesday.  Snowfall amounts will be generally light tomorrow with little accumulation if any expected.  The freezing rain concerns will last through the afternoon and into the evening when warmer air aloft will allow for soaking cold rains to spread across the area, making it feel more like April than the last full night of February.  The rain is expected to transition to a wintry mixture or some light, wet snow for Wednesday morning and early afternoon on the back side of the storm system, possibly adding up to an inch or so of accumulation before things dry out Wednesday evening.  The greatest threat for extensive icing in this upcoming storm will be through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening when not only will things be hazardous on the roads, but power outages will be possible.  Overall snowfall totals locally, meanwhile, look to be in more of one to three inch range on theMinnesotaside of the border if in fact snow develops long enough for accumulations to occur.  The Twin Cities will likely see slightly higher amounts of snow, depending on the exact storm track and may end up with as much as six inches and as little as a couple of inches.

The current forecast thinking is for a wetter scenario where our area has lower snowfall totals and more rain and possibly ice accretion in store for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted under winter weather

We’re off to a very mild start to the week with high temperatures in the 40s in the forecast for both today and tomorrow locally while our skies look to remain fairly dry and even sunny at times.  To winter weather enthusiasts, this is just a case of “what else is new?  More bad news.”  To those who want to spend a little more time outside or have to work outside this is good news and it looks like this quiet, mild pattern will linger through Thursday at least and possibly a bit further down the road thanks to a mild jet stream pattern.  Right now the northern branch of the jet stream is to our north keeping the really cold, more seasonable arctic air bottled up in northern Canada and the southern branch is where more of the “active weather” resides and that is closer to the Gulf Coast.  We’re in the middle getting the odd weak storm system here and there, as we did over the weekend, but not getting huge amounts of snow and not experiencing a typical end to the month of January for our regional standards.

Our current upper air pattern, or jet stream, will keep our weather dry and mild to start the week.

The jet stream this weekend looks a little more active for the Midwest, possibly meaning a storm system will affect our area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but close to the freezing mark, meaning precipitation types may be snow or a wintry mixture in the upcoming event.

That mild, split flow jet stream pattern will continue through most of this week with just a minor change coming up over the weekend.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a potential winter storm that may develop to our south, possibly spreading some precipitation to toward our area by Friday.  So much is up in the air right now that to give too many details would be ridiculous because we’d have to retract our statements and change the whole story every day this week until we got closer to the weekend and things looked clearer.  Right now is looks like we’ll be facing mainly a light snow/wintry mixture scenario for Friday and then a heavier, icier or rainier day on Saturday, and then a slight amount of snow on Sunday with that storm system.  We’ve had indications that it’ll stay south of us, so it may be a non factor or it may shift a bit, changing the timing of the precipitation or even the precipitation types altogether.  The bottom line is: stay tuned and expect maybe a little wintry, messy weather for Friday through Sunday.  In the meantime, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild for the next several days and while we will experience a cooling trend beyond Tuesday, we’ll be much warmer than normal through at least Sunday as highs will be in the 30s which is warmer than the usual teens or 20s that we’d typically experience this time of the year.

Posted under winter weather

It’s not enough that yesterday’s massive snowmelt has refrozen into mini skating rinks on area sidewalks and parking lots, but now we’re facing the prospect of more ice glaze today from freezing rain thanks to the arrival of another storm system from the south.  While the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota deal with blizzard conditions and heavy snow and southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa have light snow, we’re looking at icy precipitation developing in the midday and afternoon hours today and lingering through the late evening hours tonight.  As much as a quarter of an inch of ice may accumulate to the west of Rochester while areas to the east will see slightly lower amounts.  The end result will be some rather slippery conditions today and tonight and all of this will be followed by a cold blast of arctic air that will keep this stuff frozen solid for a while.  Lows tonight will be around 4° while highs tomorrow will be around 9° with wind chills around -20 thanks to some obnoxiously strong west winds that will gust to 35 miles per hour.  Sunday looks better with less wind and more sun and highs in the teens.

Midwest snow/ice forecast.

Local ice accumulation forecast through this evening.

Posted under winter weather

Current local snowfall forecast for Friday night and Saturday. Disclaimer: THIS MAY CHANGE!!!!

Local watches and warnings for this weekend's winter storm.

We’re continuing to watch a big storm that will be affecting our area this weekend. This system has been an honest nightmare to forecast – with inconsistencies in the model track being the biggest headache. With a waffling storm track, keep in mind that these totals below have a very good chance of changing. Overall, it appears snowfall totals of 4-8″ will be possible, with lesser totals to the south, and higher amounts to the north.  From the cities into western Wisconsin, a band of 12+” is possible.

Being brutally honest – we have low confidence with totals for this storm with all of the difficulties with forecasting it. More so, with above-freezing temperatures in northern Iowa, most of this could start as rain before it changes over to snow, which would put a HUGE dent in snowfall totals. This all depends on the exact track the storm will take.

What we do know for a fact – there will be travel difficulties tonight and Saturday across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. There will be blowing snow with near-blizzard conditions on Saturday/Saturday night.

The Winter Storm Watch (blue counties) and Blizzard Watch (green counties) will be changed to an advisory or warnings of some nature later on, depending on how the storm plays out. Stay tuned.

Here are the basics:

What to expect – Minnesota

Tonight: Precip to start late this evening: freezing rain/sleet/mushy snow. Some icing may occur. Snow by tomorrow morning: 1-3″.
Saturday: Snow, blowing snow, low visibilities. Another 4-7″ possible.
Saturday night: Snow tapering off, blowing snow, low visibilities. Storm totals: 5-10″.
Sunday: Bitterly cold, blowing snow.

What to expect – Iowa

Tonight: Precip to start late this evening: rain/freezing rain/sleet/mushy snow. Some icing may occur. Snow by tomorrow morning: 1-2″.
Saturday: Snow, blowing snow, low visibilities. Another 2-3″ possible.
Saturday night: Snow tapering off, blowing snow, low visibilities. Storm totals: 3-5″.
Sunday: Bitterly cold, blowing snow.

More data will come in later today, and we’ll keep you updated. Stay tuned and bear with us during the weekend……

Posted under winter, winter weather

We’re off to a gray, murky, and in some cases, slippery start to the week today as a large storm system pushes its way through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  Most of our area has been under a Freezing Rain Advisory since 6:00 this morning and will continue to watch for the threat of freezing rain through 3:00 this afternoon.  While most of the local precipitation has moved in to the northeast, we’re still keeping an eye out for pockets of sprinkles or a little drizzle that may begin to freeze on contact as surface temperatures fall off a bit.  Most of us will see temperatures fall into the upper 20s or just below freezing in the lower 30s this afternoon as cooler air pours in from the northwest with this system.  The bottom line here is, things are looking up, but we’re not in the clear yet because things may still get a little icy in some patches.  Things are expected to dry out considerably by early evening and there may even be some clearing of our cloud cover around midnight tonight while temperatures will drop into the teens for the overnight period. 

Meanwhile, the same storm system is producing heavy snow in it northwest flank way up to the north of us in northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota.  Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories have been posted for today through this evening.  Some spots near Bemidji and Thief River Falls may receive 6 inches or more of heavy snow from this potent winter storm.  To our south, there is a Tornado Watch in effect until 6:00 this evening for eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois as the cold front with this system pushes eastward into a much warmer, juicier air.  Speaking of thunderstorms, you may have heard a clap of thunder earlier today in far southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa as there were a couple of thunderstorms developed and rumbled eastward fairly quickly with the main precipitation band as the activity moved through the local area.   

Our local area is being affected by a large storm system that is producing severe winter weather to the north of us and severe thunderstorms to our south today.

Posted under weather

Freezing Rain Advisory Monday 6 AM - 3 PM

We narrowly missed Saturday’s freezing rain/ice event – it hit the Twin Cities area and made travel nearly impossible – but I don’t think we’ll be so lucky this time around.

A Freezing Rain Advisory will be in effect from Monday 6 AM – 3 PM for much of our area.  Same scenario as mentioned yesterday – warmer air aloft in the precipitation making areas allows the precip to fall as liquid. Upon hitting a sub-freezing surface, however, it freezes on contact. We saw this with light rain and drizzle last night in the Twin Cities, and the best chances for it here will be Monday after sunrise into the early afternoon. This could allow for a glazing/icing on roads, sidewalks, bridges, etc.

By the way…the forecast gets Monday afternoon with what could be some colder air mixing in, allowing sleet and or snow to fall. Accumulations would be minor, but remember that snow on ice = more trouble.

If you don’t know, there were hundreds of car accidents in the Twin Cities overnight from this. Don’t be caught off guard on Monday. If you’re traveling, play it smart.

Posted under winter, winter weather

12:30pm update: ….and now the Freezing Rain Advisory  has been canceled for our counties.

Earlier: Freezing Rain Advisory has been extended until 3 PM Sunday for Goodhue, Rice, and Steele counties (see yesterday’s graphic for counties included, excluding Buffalo and Trempealeau, today). Temperatures there and northward are still at/near freezing, so icy roads are still being reported. Overnight, hundreds of car accidents were reported around the Twin Cities.

Warmer air is surging northward with a warm front moving through – temperatures are in the low to mid 40s in northern Iowa right now, so eventually all that warmer air will keep anything from freezing on surfaces later this afternoon.

There’s a chance for drizzle/light rain tonight, and light snow Monday. More on that coming up tonight at 5 and 10.

Posted under winter, winter weather