Snow lovers rejoiced last week when we registered the greatest snowfall in a couple of years in our area with 5 to 8 inches measured in most parts of southeastern Minnesota, but not everybody shared that sentiment. There are a lot of people who are thinking ahead to warmer days and hoping for a little bit of spring the air and have even asked if there are any signs that a patten shift is a ahead that could bring such a change in our weather. This time around, that actually does not look to be the case.  Unlike last year and even 2010, two of the past three years that have featured an early arrival of spring, our pattern right now look to remain cool, mostly gray, and just a little snowy, or potentially snowy. As we approach the first of March which is the beginning of “meteorological spring” our average highs climb above freezing and in March typically make their way quickly into the mid 30s and then 40s. Our curent trend looks to feature close to normal if not slightly below normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks as a northwesterly flow looks to dominate the upper levels of the atmosphere, keeping things chilly and kind of February-like. Currently there are only a couple of chances of light snow in the forecast, one Tuesday night into Wednesday and another next Monday, but this type of pattern may keep those little doses of snow around off and on for a while with extra clouds around few signs of spring-like sunshine and full scale melting. The overall outlook for March from the Climate Prediction Center is for warmer than normal temperatures and wetter than normal weather for March, but the latest first half outlook keeps things cooler than normal and drier than normal. Maybe that means the second half will be a whole lot warmer, or maybe the monthly outlook is just wrong (that wouldn’t be the first time!) Anyway, the gist of the story here is that we’ll have to be patient while waiting for spring’s arrival and maybe enjoy the snow we have on the ground.

The Climate Center’s outlook for March calls for an increased chance for warmer than normal temperatures in the month.

The Climate Center’s current outlook for March calls for a wetter than nornal month.

Posted under climate

After a March-like week that has featured high temperatures in the 30s and quite a bit of melting snow, it looks like more typical January weather is just hours away.  A potent cold front to our west is expected to sweep through the area after midnight tonight, unleashing some strong, cold west winds that will blow seasonably cold air back into the region.  Ahead of that front today, we’re dealing with the effects of warm weather and melting snow as fog is thick and gray is the color scheme du jour.  We’ll have clouds and highs near 40 degrees for our “Finally Friday” with south winds gradually increasing and working to slowly mix out some of our fog.  While heavy snow will be likely tonight through much of Saturday in the northern plains and far northwestern Minnesota with this storm system and cold front, we’ll get just a few snow showers and flurries along that front and then dry, mainly gray weather for Saturday.  Temperatures this weekend in the wake of that front will be very typical of mid January, beginning a trend of cold weather that looks to linger through most of the rest of the month.

Temperatures look to drop off a cliff late tonight as a strong cold front brings winter weather back to the area.

Posted under Cold, winter weather

Seasonably cold arctic air has poured into the region on the heels of Thursday’s blizzard and, from the looks of things, it may be here for quite some time.  The storm system (“Draco” as the Weather Channel is calling it) that produced heavy snow and strong winds in our area has moved on to the east, but behind it, colder air is pouring in ahead of a broad area of high pressure.  The pattern aloft is changing as well, as colder air is pushing southward.  The storm track will be south of us for the most part next week while cold, dry arctic air will dominate our Christmas week forecast.

Colder air is moving in today while high pressure ahead of us will make for a quiet, chilly weekend.

A pattern change will push the main storm track to the south while cold, dry air lingers in our region. A large storm system is expected to develop in Colorado, moving southeastward and affecting the Gulf states and eventually East Coast while our next chance for accumulating snow may hold off until next weekend.

Posted under Uncategorized, winter weather

We’re definitely in the midst of a typical November-like weather pattern and still experiencing late fall temperatures as we move into the second week of the month, but this seems the appropriate time to talk about winter weather preparedness.  This week is Winter Weather Awareness week for our region as we at least start to think about the colder, icier, sloppier conditions that are eventually on their way in the coming season.  Below is this year’s information on the subject of winter from the National Weather Service in La Crosse.  Incidentally, if you’re wondering about winter weather in our current forecast picture, there is one storm system we’ll be watching closely over the upcoming weekend that is expected to bring rain, and possibly later, some snow to the region, especially to the eastern part of the local area.  Right now it’s a little too early to make any bold predictions, but we’ll just say right now that there is at least a small chance that a few of us my see at least a little snow or some snowflakes mixed with rain early next week on the back side of the system, so we’ll watching and waiting.

NWS Winter Weather Information / Terms

It is important that you learn and understand the definitions of different winter related headlines. Here are the main products used by the NWS to keep people informed.

Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO)

The Hazardous Weather Outlook includes any potential weather hazard out to seven (7) days. It is used for planning purposes and will include a short description of what the weather threat is, when it is expected, and how much it may impact the region. The HWO is issued daily around 5:00 AM, and updated during the day as needed. It is also broadcast on NOAA Weather Radio near the top and bottom of every hour.

Winter Storm Watch (WSW)

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is a potential for a winter storm to affect the region during the next 1 to 3 days. It does not always mean the area will be hit by a winter storm, but there is still some uncertainity of the exact path or timing of the event. This is a planning stage. Use this time to ensure you have supplies at home, like some extra food, medications, baby items, etc.. If travel is planned, check ahead and see if a different route or delaying your departure may make your trip safer. Be alert for changing weather conditions.

Winter Weather Advisory (WSW)

Advisories are issued for those winter weather events that are expected to be more of an inconvenience and should not become life-threatening if caution is exercised. These are often issued for 3 to 6 inches of snow, blowing and drifting snow, freezing drizzle, or a combination of these elements. It may be issued for less snow for early season events, when drivers may not be accustomed to slick roads.

Winter Storm Warning (WSW)

Winter Storm Warnings are usually issued when dangerous winter weather is expected, occurring, or imminent. The weather can become life-threatening. Criteria includes snowfalls of 6 inches or more in 12 hours, 8 inches in 24 hours, or lower amounts if accompanied by strong winds or a combination of dangerous winter elements. Avoid unnecessary travel.

Blizzard Warnings (BZW)

The most dangerous winter event is certainly the

blizzard

. Blizzard Warnings are issued when snow or blowing snow lowers visibilities to a 1/4 mile or less, wind gusts hit 35 mph or higher, and the storm lasts for 3 hours or more. Travel is dangerous and should be avoided if possible.

Ice Storm Warning (WSW)

Ice storm Warnings are issued when freezing rain will cause widespread glazing. A coating of ice is expected to reach 1/4 inch thick or more on objects and make travel nearly impossible. For lesser amounts of ice, usually a winter weather advisory would be used, but even a thin glaze of ice can make travel difficult. Avoid travel.

Wind Chill Warning (NPW)

Issued when wind chills of -35 F or lower are expected with wind speeds of 10 mph or more. A wind chill advisory is issued for values between -20 and -34 F. Dress warmly and cover as much exposed skin as possible.

Winter Storm Climatology

On average our area experiences 2 to 3 winter storms a season and 1 “true” blizzard every 3 years. Parts of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa experience more blizzards on average than areas along the Mississippi River and western Wisconsin because of the terrain. Be aware that conditions can change drastically across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota compared to areas east of there.

Click here for more information about Wisconsin hazardous winter weather.

Here is a table showing the number of winter related warnings the La Crosse NWS office has issued for the past several seasons:

What is the prediction for this winter? Click here to check out our 2012-2013 Winter Outlook page.

Wind Chill Index

The “Wind Chill” Index is a calculation of how cold it feels outside when the effects of temperature and wind speed are combined. The La Crosse National Weather Service issues Wind Chill Advisories when they reach -20 F, and Wind Chill Warnings when they drop to -35 F or lower. Exposure to cold, biting air for long periods of time is dangerous.

For more information on the Wind Chill Index, click here.

In late 2001 the NWS started using a new wind chill index. This new index was designed to calculate a more accurate reading of how the cold air feels on human skin. This new index was based on wind speeds at human face level, an updated heat transfer theory which factors in heat loss from the body to its surroundings during cold windy days, and a consistent standard for skin tissue resistance. The main goal of the change was to use modern science in revising the index so that it more accurately represents the impact on humans.

Frostbite / Hypothermia

Watch for signs of frostbite or hypothermia when outdoors during extreme cold weather.

Frostbite is a severe reaction to cold exposure that can permanently damage its victims. A loss of feeling and a white or pale appearance in fingers, toes, or nose and ear lobes are symptoms of frostbite. In fact, research (P.Tikuisis, 2004) has shown that uncovered fingers can freeze up to 8 times faster than a human cheek, and the nose can freeze 3 times faster. This illustrates the importance of keeping fingers and parts of your face (ear lobes, nose) well covered in extreme cold weather.

Hypothermia is a condition brought on when the body temperature drops to less than 95 deg F. Symptoms of hypothermia include uncontrollable shivering, slow speech, memory lapses, frequent stumbling, drowsiness, and exhaustion.

If frostbite or hypothermia is suspected, begin warming the person slowly and seek immediate medical assistance. Warm the person’s trunk first. Use your own body heat to help. Arms and legs should be warmed last because stimulation of the limbs can drive cold blood toward the heart and lead to heart failure. Put the person in dry clothing and wrap their entire body in a blanket.

Never give a frostbite or hypothermia victim something with caffeine in it (like coffee or tea) or alcohol. Caffeine, a stimulant, can cause the heart to beat faster and hasten the effects the cold has on the body. Alcohol, a depressant, can slow the heart and also hasten the ill effects of cold body temperatures.

Winter Weather Preparedness

Proper winter weather awareness includes preparation. Here are some things that can help you.

When Outdoors:

• Check temperatures and wind chill indicies first.
• Dress warmly, with several layers. Dress for the worst just in case.
• Use a warm coat, gloves or mittens, a hat, and water-resistant boots.
• Cover exposed skin as much as possible.
• Watch for frostbite on finger tips, ear lobes, the nose, or toes.
• Avoid over-exertion. The cold already puts a strain on the body and heart.

At Home or Work – make sure you have:

• Extra flashlights and batteries
• A battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio or AM/FM portable radio
• Extra food and water (2-3 day supply)
• Extra medicine and baby items
• First Aid supplies
• Emergency Heating source**
• Carbon Monoxide Detector

** If you use an emergency heating source, be alert for deadly carbon monoxide gases and never place it near another object that may catch on fire. Many house fires during the winter are caused by incorrect use of a space heater. Keep the space heater at least 36 inches away from other objects and turn it off if you leave the room.

On the farm:

• Move animals to a sheltered area.
• Supply extra food for animals.
• Have a fresh water supply (most animal deaths during the winter are from dehydration).

At School:

• Have an action plan.
• Monitor weather conditions closely.
• Use NOAA Weather Radio to get hourly wind chill values.
• School days may need to be delayed, cancelled, or shortened.

When Traveling:

• Winterize your vehicle. Check the battery.
• Check the forecast and road conditions ahead of time.
• Consider adjusting your route to avoid poor driving conditions.
• Carry a cellular phone for use during emergencies.
• Keep the gas tank near full.
• Coordinate with others your destination and times of travel.
• Yield to snowplows. The snow cloud they produce can lower visibilities to near zero. Stay back – Stay Alive!
• Have a survival kitin your car:
  • Extra blankets or sleeping bag
  • Flashlight with extra batteries
  • First Aid kit with pockey knife
  • Booster cables
  • A rope
  • A small shovel
  • A bag of sand or cat litter for traction
  • Plastic bags (for sanitation)
  • Extra gloves, hat, and socks
  • Non-perishable food items and bottled water
  • Road maps (for alternative routes)
• If you do get stuck:
  • Stay with your car. Do not try to walk to safety.
  • Start the car for about 10 minutes every hour for heat.
  • Keep the exhaust pipe clear of snow.
  • Tie a bright colored (red or orange) cloth to the antenna.
  • Turn the dome light when running the engine.
  • If you must venture away from the car, use a life-line or rope.
• Be careful of Dense Fog. Delay your travel if needed.
  • Do not drive into a dense fog bank. Others may be stopped.
  • In October 2002, a pile-up on Interstate 43 in eastern Wisconsin killed 10 people (see image) during dense fog.
  • In January 2008, another series of accidents in southern Wisconsin led to some fatalities due to dense fog.

NOAA Weather Radio

Staying informed of hazardous winter weather is a good way to prepare or avoid dangerous situations, especially if you have travel plans. NOAA Weather Radio is an excellent source of weather information directly from the National Weather Service.

Every school should have and monitor a NOAA Weather Radio!

NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts 24 hours a day – 7 days a week. At the touch of a button you can hear the:

• Regional weather summary
• Current weather conditions, including hourly wind chill values
• The 7-day forecast
• Radar summaries and short term forecasts
• Any watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
• Hazardous Weather Outlooks (top and bottom of the hour)
• Other pertinent weather information as needed

To visit our main NOAA Weather Radio page, click here.

The National Weather Service in La Crosse currently operates 10 transmitters.

Posted under winter weather

For those heading out tonight to take in some high school football, we have a summery evening ahead with warm temps, and low humidity.  Below is the evening forecast as well as a look at the cabin forecast for those who will be traveling.  Also, there’s a look back at August (at least the first 30 days.)

A pleasant, summer-like evening to start football season.If you're heading north for the holiday weekend, things look warm and pleasant for your getaway.We're ending August on a typically bright and warm note. The month of August as a whole was summery with a stretch of highs in the 70s keeping things from getting too far above normal with our temperatures.A warm and pleasant weather picture for those who heading up north for a weekend getaway.

A warm, pleasant weekend awaits those traveling up north for one final summer getaway.

Overall, August has been a warm month, but thanks to a stretch of two weeks in the 70s our average high temp is only slightly above normal.

Posted under climate, weather

The latest Drought Monitor update from the USDA shows little change in our area over the past week.  Most of our southern Minnesota and Wisconsin counties are rather dry and are listed as “abnormally dry” or in the “moderate drought” category and are anywhere from two to four inches below normal for rainfall this summer, not including the much needed rain we received on Wednesday.  Meanwhile the northern Iowa portion of our local area is in much worse shape, listed as being in “severe drought” and is a couple of months behind in rainfall.  Again, that’s not including yesterday’s showers and thunderstorms that brought anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to a couple of inches of rain to that area.  Right now we’re hoping for a nice, long duration rain event that would replenish soil moisture somewhere in the an inch or two category across the entire area, but such a storm system doesn’t appear to be in sight.  We’ll just have to hope for more of those scattered shower situations like the one we experienced yesterday where a little downpour here and there helps one town or field at a time.  The forecast for the weekend does feature some rain chances, but really light activity is expected with the Minnesota side of the border expecting slightly higher amounts.  There will be a few chances next week as well and toward the middle of the week, a stronger cold front appears poised to produce more widespread rain and possibly knock down the temperatures just a bit, so let’s keep our fingers crossed that things work our in our favor in this forecast scenario.  Rochester, for instance, is an inch and a half below normal for the month and almost three inches below normal for the year.  that’s not including the eight to nine inches our area was below normal for last fall when we experienced such an incredibly dry stretch of weeks and months.

The southernmost portion of our Minnesota viewing area is in moderate drought while Rochester and locations to the west are listed as abnormally dry.

Northern Iowa continues to deal with severe drought conditions as some locations are a couple of months' worth of rain below normal.

Some spots to our south and southeast are even drier than we are as extreme drought conditions are becoming more common in the Midwest.

Posted under Drought

We’re enjoying a bright, fairly dry Thursday with some seasonably warm weather across the area while hopes for some rain persist.  A weak storm system in the Dakotas is edging its way eastward, offering us at least the potential for a little relief from these very dry conditions.  Cloud cover will slowly increase today ahead of that storm system and its cold front with some light rain possibly developing as soon as the wee hours of Friday for us.  While there will be a chance for light rain through much of tomorrow and tomorrow night, possibly through early Saturday, rainfall totals do NOT look promising.  I know “every little bit helps,” right?  Well, right now I’m just hoping we all get at least a measurable amount of rain from this as the showers will battle some dry air initially and the front isn’t looking tremendously strong.  After this, there won’t be any decent rain chances until the middle of latter parts of next week, so there’s a lot of pressure on this storm system to deliver something useful.  Right now our rainfall deficit for the month is officially two and a half inches and more than four inches for the past month overall with some spots to the south drier than that.

The latest Drought Monitor has been released by the USDA and parts of our area are now back into “Abnormally Dry” or “Moderate Drought” categories.

Drought conditions are developing across southern and western Minnesota where rain has been sparse over the past month.

Moderate drought conditions are being experienced across northern Iowa while Severe Drought is just south of us.

The local rainfall forecast for Friday through Saturday morning. Totals look to be on the low side, but hopefully we'll get at least this much as atmospheric dryness may reduce amounts some.

Much of our area is in the Slight Risk of severe weather in the Storm Prediction Center's Friday outlook. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in our area late Friday through Friday night along an approaching cold front. Large hail and strong winds will be possible.

Posted under Drought, rainfall, severe weather

For the past few days we’ve been closely watching a potent storm system to our west that first affected us by kicking up some strong winds, and now is producing showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The severe weather from this storm system last night was just to our north and west and today it looks like the severe weather potential will be centered on the heart of our area.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk of severe weather today from “Slight Risk” to “Moderate Risk” meaning there’s a higher probability of a sizable outbreak of severe weather, possibly involving some tornadoes.  The best chance for this to occur locally is between 2:00 and 6:00 this afternoon as the cold associated with the upcoming storm system pushes through the area.  We’ll have gusty south winds ahead of the front that will occasionally reach 40 miles per hour, especially in the eastern portion of our local area and then those winds will turn to the west behind the front later today, diminishing only after sunset this evening and later tonight.  Here’s the SPC outlook:

Southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and a large portion of Wisconsin have been placed in the Moderate Risk for severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Posted under severe weather

Here’s the latest on the potent winter storm that is expected to reach our area for tomorrow and Wednesday:

While there are several things that may change in the next day or so, possibly resulting in an altogether different outcome in our local weather, the current forecast outlook for the next major storm system in our region is looking a little warmer and wetter for us.  The latest forecast data suggests that the storm system moving in for tomorrow and hanging around for most of Wednesday will take a fairly northerly track, keeping us in the “warm sector” where rain, sleet, and freezing rain will be the primary concerns while the heavy snow potential will be confined to weather and northwestern Minnesota and for the eastern Dakotas.  Incidentally, some locations in that part of the region will deal with blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday as winds will then be reaching 40 miles per hour at times.

Right now, we’re expecting light snow or a mixture of freezing rain and snow to develop in the mid morning hours across the area tomorrow, making for a slippery Tuesday.  Snowfall amounts will be generally light tomorrow with little accumulation if any expected.  The freezing rain concerns will last through the afternoon and into the evening when warmer air aloft will allow for soaking cold rains to spread across the area, making it feel more like April than the last full night of February.  The rain is expected to transition to a wintry mixture or some light, wet snow for Wednesday morning and early afternoon on the back side of the storm system, possibly adding up to an inch or so of accumulation before things dry out Wednesday evening.  The greatest threat for extensive icing in this upcoming storm will be through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening when not only will things be hazardous on the roads, but power outages will be possible.  Overall snowfall totals locally, meanwhile, look to be in more of one to three inch range on theMinnesotaside of the border if in fact snow develops long enough for accumulations to occur.  The Twin Cities will likely see slightly higher amounts of snow, depending on the exact storm track and may end up with as much as six inches and as little as a couple of inches.

The current forecast thinking is for a wetter scenario where our area has lower snowfall totals and more rain and possibly ice accretion in store for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted under winter weather

We’re off to a very mild start to the week with high temperatures in the 40s in the forecast for both today and tomorrow locally while our skies look to remain fairly dry and even sunny at times.  To winter weather enthusiasts, this is just a case of “what else is new?  More bad news.”  To those who want to spend a little more time outside or have to work outside this is good news and it looks like this quiet, mild pattern will linger through Thursday at least and possibly a bit further down the road thanks to a mild jet stream pattern.  Right now the northern branch of the jet stream is to our north keeping the really cold, more seasonable arctic air bottled up in northern Canada and the southern branch is where more of the “active weather” resides and that is closer to the Gulf Coast.  We’re in the middle getting the odd weak storm system here and there, as we did over the weekend, but not getting huge amounts of snow and not experiencing a typical end to the month of January for our regional standards.

Our current upper air pattern, or jet stream, will keep our weather dry and mild to start the week.

The jet stream this weekend looks a little more active for the Midwest, possibly meaning a storm system will affect our area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but close to the freezing mark, meaning precipitation types may be snow or a wintry mixture in the upcoming event.

That mild, split flow jet stream pattern will continue through most of this week with just a minor change coming up over the weekend.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a potential winter storm that may develop to our south, possibly spreading some precipitation to toward our area by Friday.  So much is up in the air right now that to give too many details would be ridiculous because we’d have to retract our statements and change the whole story every day this week until we got closer to the weekend and things looked clearer.  Right now is looks like we’ll be facing mainly a light snow/wintry mixture scenario for Friday and then a heavier, icier or rainier day on Saturday, and then a slight amount of snow on Sunday with that storm system.  We’ve had indications that it’ll stay south of us, so it may be a non factor or it may shift a bit, changing the timing of the precipitation or even the precipitation types altogether.  The bottom line is: stay tuned and expect maybe a little wintry, messy weather for Friday through Sunday.  In the meantime, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild for the next several days and while we will experience a cooling trend beyond Tuesday, we’ll be much warmer than normal through at least Sunday as highs will be in the 30s which is warmer than the usual teens or 20s that we’d typically experience this time of the year.

Posted under winter weather