It certainly has been a cool and wet first half of April with temperatures running about eleven degrees below normal on average and rainfall amounts approaching triple the normal value in Rochester as of the midpoint in the month.  The official rainfall total in the Med City has been 3.89 inches, which is 2.42 inches of moisture above normal to date and from the look of things, we have quite a bit more on the way for the latter part of this week.  We’re enjoying the most pleasant part of the week right now with sunshine and light winds making for a decent Tuesday afternoon, but after this it will be all down hill for the next few days thanks to a large, messy storm system that, just like last week, looks to bring heavy rain and then some accumulating snow to the region.   Expect rain to develop in the middle of our Wednesday with some heavy downpours and thunderstorms Wednesday evening.  We’ll keep the cool, blustery theme going Thursday with light rain that will eventually transition to a rain and snow mixture late in the day before becoming all snow Thursday night.  Nothing is set in stone yet, but there is the potential that many of us may have to dig out of a coating of five or six inches of snow Friday morning on the back side of this storm system.  There’s also a chance that it will be wetter snow and not as deep, so there are many possibilities ahead of us as that part of the system is a few days away.

An inch or two of rain may fall by early Thursday as shown on our FutureCast. Some spots may receive as much as three inches causing some localized flooding.

Heavy rain and the possibility of heavy snow melt/runoff may cause flooding in some spots this week. A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for much of the local area.

Posted under Uncategorized

We’ve been having weather Deja Vu recently as active weather continues to visit the Upper Midwest.  Last week we were talking heavy snow, this week, heavy rain.  Heavy rain will be the main threat as much of this rain will run off into creeks and streams thanks to the frozen ground and thick snow pack.  Of other concern with the heavy rain,  storm drains may be covered from the rounds of snow we have received lately.

Heavy rain won’t be the only issue over the weekend.  We could see everything from freezing rain, rain, sleet, and snow.  We will break those precip types down in order of appearance.

Freezing rain will be possible late Friday night through early Saturday morning.  The thing with this is that air temperatures will probably be above freezing, but ground surfaces will likely be below freezing.  The rain falling initially will have a chance to freeze on contact creating icy spots on roads and sidewalks.  Good news with this is that we aren’t expecting widespread effects from any icing.  Any ice that does accumulate, and it will be minimal at best, will melt quickly as warmer air surges north.  Do use caution traveling at late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

That warmer air will cause the precip to remain as mainly rain for the remainder of Saturday and the 1st half of the overnight.  As mentioned above, we could see some localized flooding thanks to runoff.  Ice jamming may also be a possibly a on area rivers so be on the lookout this weekend.  In spots, up to or an exceeding an inch of rain is likely.  This rain could be heavy at times and we may even hear a rumble of thunder or two.  Here is our current rain Futurecast run.

With all of this moisture, dense fog will also be possible over the weekend.  Early Sunday morning, colder air will enter the storm and that will cause the rain to change over to some sleet and eventually snow.  The snow could provide us the chance to have to shovel a little bit.

The track of this system is being watched closely.  If colder air gets into the system earlier, this forecast will change.  We will pin down the snow side of things over the weekend.  Here’s a general look at what could happen early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  At this time, 1-3″ of snow looks possible from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

This is a complex messy storm.  We will have the latest over the weekend on the NewCenter.

Posted under weather, winter weather

What a wicked thunderstorm outbreak we experienced in portions of our viewing area Thursday night!  Not only did we have some damaging straight line winds, but many of us received a heavy, sustained deluge of rain in those storms with the highest totals registered in the northern part of the area in Goodhue, Rice, Dakota, and Wabasha counties.  It’s estimated that some of those spots received nine or ten inches of rainfall, leading to some flooding along the Cannon River in Cannon Falls and some localized flooding in rural areas as well.  Rochester even had some impressive totals while the airport officially registered a meager half inch overall.

Here’s a look at some of the totals in the area from the National Weather Service in La Crosse:

Last Night’s Rainfall Totals

...PRELIMINARY 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...

LOCATION                   RAINFALL    TIME     LAT/LON

IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
DORCHESTER HIGHWAY 76      0.04        0600 AM  43.42N 91.51W 
WAUKON                        T        0600 AM  43.27N 91.47W 

...CHICKASAW COUNTY...
IONIA                      0.04        0600 AM  43.03N 92.50W 

...WINNESHIEK COUNTY...
BLUFFTON                   0.27        0600 AM  43.41N 91.90W 
DECORAH AWOS               0.03        0600 AM  43.28N 91.74W 

MINNESOTA

...DODGE...
KASSON                     2.70        0600 AM  44.03N 92.75W
MANTORVILLE                2.45        0600 AM

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
LANESBORO                  0.32        0600 AM  43.72N 91.97W 
PILOT MOUND                0.30        0600 AM  43.78N 92.03W 
CARIMONA                   0.08        0600 AM  43.66N 92.15W 

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
MOUND PRAIRIE              1.16        0600 AM  43.78N 91.45W 
HOUSTON                    0.83        0600 AM  43.77N 91.57W 
BROWNSVILLE                0.08        0600 AM  43.70N 91.27W 

...MOWER COUNTY...
LANSING                    0.47        0600 AM  43.75N 92.95W 
AUSTIN-DOBBINS CREEK       0.32        0600 AM  43.67N 92.95W 
GRAND MEADOW               0.19        0600 AM  43.71N 92.56W 
AUSTIN 3S                  0.12        0600 AM  43.62N 93.00W 

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
POST TOWN                  2.65        0600 AM  44.09N 92.82W 
ROCHESTER - CASCADE CREEK  2.05        0600 AM  44.03N 92.48W 
ROCHESTER - SILVER CREEK   1.71        0600 AM  44.03N 92.42W 
ROCHESTER BELTLINE         1.70        0600 AM  43.91N 92.50W 
ROCHESTER - BEAR CREEK     1.68        0600 AM  43.92N 92.48W 
ELBA                       0.47        0600 AM  44.05N 92.05W 

...WABASHA COUNTY...
LAKE CITY-MISSISSIPPI RVR  2.44        0600 AM  44.45N 92.26W 
KELLOGG                    0.55        0600 AM  44.32N 92.00W 

...WINONA COUNTY...
LA CRESCENT DAM 7          1.30        0600 AM  43.87N 91.31W 
DAKOTA                     0.85        0600 AM  43.92N 91.37W 
ALTURA                     0.77        0600 AM  44.15N 92.01W 
MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5       0.56        0600 AM  44.16N 91.81W 
WINONA DAM 5A              0.52        0600 AM  44.09N 91.67W 

WISCONSIN

...BUFFALO COUNTY...
ALMA DAM 4                 0.60        0600 AM  44.33N 91.92W 

...CLARK COUNTY...
NEILLSVILLE 1W             1.52        0600 AM  44.56N 90.61W 

...JACKSON COUNTY...
BLACK RIVER FALLS-BLACK RVR0.72        0600 AM  44.38N 90.84W 
BLACK RIVER FALLS RAWS     0.70        0600 AM  44.30N 90.84W 

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
LA CROSSE ASOS             0.76        0600 AM  43.88N 91.26W 
HOLLAND                    0.76        0600 AM  43.97N 91.29W 
LA CROSSE-MISSISSIPPI RVR  0.57        0600 AM  43.80N 91.37W 

...TAYLOR COUNTY...
MEDFORD 4NW                1.33        0600 AM  45.21N 90.36W 
LUBLIN DIAMOND LAKE        0.94        0600 AM  45.11N 90.69W 

...TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...
TREMPEALEAU DAM 6          0.55        0600 AM  44.00N 91.44W 

...VERNON COUNTY...
GENOA DAM 8                0.08        0600 AM  43.57N 91.23W

Posted under rainfall amounts

It has a been a year to remember, or forget when it comes to natural disasters.  Hurricane Irene could make 2011 a little harder to forget.  To date there have been 10 natural disasters in the United States that have topped the 1 Billion dollar mark in damages.  That ties a record and that does not include Hurricane Irene, which still has to be analyzed, but when its all said and done, the record will likely fall.  Can you name the ten to hit this year?  If you need help… they are listed below:

1.  Groundhog Day Blizzard: January 29 – February 3, 2011

This will forever be the iconic blizzard for years to come.  36 people were killed as a result of the storm.  Total losses were estimated at $2 dollars.  Remember the picture of the cars stranded on lake shore drive in Chicago?

2. Midwest/Southeast tornadoes April 4-5, 2011

This was pretty much the start of it all when it comes to the tornado outbreaks of this past year.  Strong cold air pushing south from Canada caught up with warm, humid air across the U.S. Southeast to produce severe weather and tornadoes in Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina.  Forty-six tornadoes were confirmed during this event, and nine lives were lost.  Insured losses were estimated around $1.6 billion with total losses of $2.3 billion.

3.  Southeast/Midwest tornadoes April 8-11, 2011

This one hit closest to home.  A Violent EF-4 tornado ripped through the town of Mapleton, IA, just outside of our viewing area.  This was part of an outbreak that hit Eastern and Central Wisconsin the next day.  Supercells were born in our area and quickly raced toward the east leveling towns.  Thankfully, there were no fatalities reported in this event.  Total losses were around 2.2 billion dollars.

4. Midwest/Southeast tornadoes April 14-16, 2011:

Approximately 160 tornadoes struck portions of the midwestern and southeastern United States, killing 38 people. Insured losses of $1.4 billion were recorded, with total losses over $2 billion.  The most memorable tornadoes hit in North Carolina.  Here’s a picture of a Lowes home improvement store that collapsed.  This was the biggest tornado outbreak of the year to that point.  Little did we know the biggest one in recorded history was 10 days away.

5. Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornado outbreak aka “Super Outbreak” – April 25-30, 2011

Up until this tornado outbreak, the 1974 “Super Outbreak” Was the benchmark of all tornado outbreaks.  This event has been called “Super Outbreak 2″ by some… and rightfully so.   305 confirmed tornadoes and 327 deaths. Losses were over $6.6 billion insured, over $9 billion total.  This event broke records some thought would never be broken from the outbreak of ’74.  Since the Enhanced Fujita Scale was created back in 2007, there have only been 2 Ef-5 Tornadoes.  After the dust settled with this event, there were 6.  Below is a radar image from the worst day of the event.

6.Midwest/Southeast tornadoes May 22-27, 2011

One city name and you will instantly be able to call this one.  Joplin, Missouri.  An EF-5 tornado demolished the city.  In its wake , 141 people were killed.  Losses were estimated over $7 billion.

7.  Southern Plains/Southwest drought, heatwave, and wildfires spring-summer 2011

As a result of a severe drought $5 billion dollars in direct losses to agriculture, cattle and structures.

8.  Mississippi River flooding spring-summer 2011

The snow melt from our area and points north from a very snowy winter filled the upper Mississippi and flowed down south.  This caused major flooding in the Tennessee river valley and other points in the southern United States. $2-$4 billion dollars in economic losses with two deaths were associated with the floods.

View from above of the flooding in the south from the Mississippi River

9. Upper Midwest flooding summer 2011

This was another event that happened close to home and was in local news because of the proximity to us and because of how severe the flooding was.  It is estimated that 11,000 people had to evacuate Minot, North Dakota due to rising waters in the Souris River.  Over $2 billion dollars in losses have occurred due to the extreme flooding in these areas.

And again, if we get 10, it will break the record.  Could Hurricane Irene be it?  We will keep you posted!

Posted under Natural Disaster, severe weather, Uncategorized, weather

Local river levels continue to rise today after an incredibly soggy and tempestuous Tuesday left us with an inch or more of rain in most of the area including a record setting 2.20 inches of rainfall in Rochester.  Austin received a little more than an inch of rainfall yesterday, exacerbating the flood situation along the local creeks and Cedar River.  In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Warning for the Cedar River effective today and tomorrow as the river is expected to rise above flood stage for a few hours in the next 24 hours.  Here’s the statement from the NWS:

 743 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE WI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT AUSTIN.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 7:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO BETWEEN 15 AND NEAR 15.5 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT…AT 15.0 FEET…THE CITY OF AUSTIN TAKES SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO
  WARN PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES.

Meanwhile Turtle Creek and Dobbins Creek are near their flood stage as well.  Here’s the latest on those two waterways:

412 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DOBBINS CREEK AT AUSTIN.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  3:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 12.0
  FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

412 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURTLE CREEK NEAR AUSTIN.
* AT  3:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING CREST NEAR 11.7 FEET
  THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY.
* IMPACT…AT 10.5 FEET…MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK IN
  AUSTIN.

Posted under flooding

Yesterday officially marked the start of National Flood Safety Awareness Week.  This week is to bring attention to the dangers involving flooding and how to be safe if and when it occurs.  Flooding is the number 2 related weather killer in the United States each year and experts say a lot of the fatalities can be prevented.  A lot of the fatalities associated with flooding are from people using bad judgement.  You may have heard the slogan from the National Weather Service before…”Turn around don’t drown.”  That’s exactly what people don’t do and that’s where most of the fatalities come from…in automobiles.  A lot of times you can’t accurately judge how deep the water is, so you are better off to just turn around and not go through it.  It also only takes about 18 inches of flowing water to make a car or even a bigger truck float away and become powerless.  On some occasions, the rescue crews can’t make it to get you out of being trapped.  Using good judgement will not only save your life, but won’t put others lives at stake trying to save yours.

Flood awareness week comes at a time when flooding concerns around our area are rather high.  The melting snow pack combined with a chance of rain in the coming days increases this risk substantially.  If this snow pack melts at a face rate then flooding will likely occur on rivers and area creeks and streams.

Here is a link to the National Weather Service’s Flood Awareness Page!

Posted under flooding, minnesota, rainfall, spring, weather

Nothing is concrete with this upcoming storm. But what is appearing to be more likely is that we will be on the warmer side of the system, meaning more rain than anything else. Infact, given the dynamics of this bugger, there may even be some thunder possible. I’m torn whether to feel happy or sad over this. I don’t feel too happy because – 1) it’s winter, and it should be snow but moreso 2) there could be some serious flooding issues with this.

Here’s my thinkings on what appears to want to take place:

Wednesday night-Thursday: Fog/freezing drizzle.

Thursday-Friday night: Drizzle/fog/periods of rain.

Friday night-Saturday: Fog/rain&snow mix/light snow

The snow looks to be minor accumulations. As hinted at above, flooding could be a big concern with this, probably the biggest concern out of the storm. There could be the threat for rapid runoff with such a solid snowpack on the ground. This could lead to an ice jam/flooding threat on rivers and streams. Additionally, temperatures will drop off quickly Friday night as the cold front passes through, leading to refreezing of any water, so travel issues could be likely.

Once again, nothing’s set in stone here. If the low stays on track (Iowa through Minnesota), then what I’ve just rambled on about looks to be a good bet. If the low moves east, over Illinois/Wisconsin, we’ll be in the colder air, so more of an ice/snow threat.

Bottom line – as always, hang tight and stay tuned the next couple of days. It’s still going to be a busy holiday weekend with a lot of people out celebrating….

Posted under winter, winter weather

Yesterday there was a good comment on our post about the Zumbro River falling and the flood stage. The comment asked what that nitty gritty hydrology info meant. So, for those of you wondering what exactly flood stage, and the classifications mean, here you go!

Stage:  the level of the water surface of a river or stream above an established gage at a given location. It’s a horizontal surface and used as a zero point for measuring the water’s level.

Action Stage – when water rises on a stream or river, this is the level where the National Weather Service starts to take some type of  action to prepare for possible flooding. The type of action taken differs for each gage location. For those living in the area, the flooding should be monitored.

Flood Stage – This is a set gage height for a given location that water must rise above in order to create a hazard to life & property. Flood advisories and/or warnings are usually issued at this flood stage.

After the flood stage, the flood is placed in a category. These categories describe the observed and expected severity of flooding impacts in a given stream segment or nearby stream segment.  Differences with the channel and bank characteristics on portions of the stream will alter the severity of flooding at a given stage.

Minor flooding: some water affecting roads and buildings. Some evacuations may be necessary.

Moderate flooding: more extensive flooding – water has partially inundated roads and buildings. A greater amount of evacuations may be necessary.

Major flooding: severe flooding – water has significantly inundated roads and buildings. Massive evacuations become necessary.

Posted under flooding

After a record flood last week in Zumbro Falls, the water levels are continuing to slowly drop along the Zumbro River in that area.  While there is still flooding going on in Zumbro Falls today, there is at least hope in sight today that the flood waters will finally fall below flood stage by day’s end.  Below is a look at the latest hydrograph from the National Weather Service in La Crosse that show the water levels slightly above flood stage on Monday morning.  The actual river level is an estimate as the measuring instruments aren’t currently functioning.  Our dry forecast this week will allow those river levels to fall while our soils will dry out a bit.  Locations along the Mississippi will have to deal with rising waters, however, as flood waters from local tributaries will be feeding an overabundance of water into the river.   

Posted under flooding

Nothing looks to be changing much in our forecast for the next seven days. Aside from some minor temperature adjustments, we look to have dry weather. Lots of sunshine, some clouds, and not too much in the way of high winds (it will be a little breezy Monday and Wednesday, however).

We are still looking at the likelihood of flooding on the Mississippi River this week. While we’re not expecting major flooding, it will still impact some locations as the river nears and passes flood stage. Flood warnings are in effect along the Mississippi River to account for this, and will be through the weekend.

Posted under flooding, September 2010 Flooding, weather