A Cold, Drier Pattern Ahead

While our weather has dried out this week and the winds have finally dropped off, we’re still dealing with some unseasonably cold temperatures across the region as we approach the end of the week.  Cold, dry Canadian high pressure has settled in from the north, making for a bright, frigid weather picture today and this looks to continue for a few more days.  An active jet stream overhead has been responsible for keeping things rather snowy for us in recent weeks, but now there are signs that there is going to be a shift to the south and this dry high pressure may be dominating for the most part through the end of the month.  There will be small snow chances Sunday and then during the upcoming week, but totals look to be minor if they’re measurable at all.  Temperatures will slowly increase over time, but we won’t be anywhere close to what is considered “normal” for late March standards as 30s will be the rule for the next week. 

 

Ted Blog7

 

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Posted under Cold

This post was written by tschmidt on March 21, 2013

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September Summary

It was a warm and very dry September for us in ou area as high temperatures were just a little warmer than normal while rainfall was way below normal.  Stagnant high pressure was dominant in the regionfor te last half of the month, bringing incredibly beautiful weather, but suppressing any rainfall potential.  The atmosphere itself was very dry under that high pressure, allowing for wild daily fluctuations of temperatures with 30s and 40s typical in the mornings across the local area and afternoon highs commonly in the 70s more often than not.  Our current rainfall deficit for 2012 in Rochester now stands at 6.94 inches!  Looking ahead at the forecast, we’re expcting just a little rain on Thursday and then perhaps some more down the road in the second half of next week, but otherwise the dry weather trend appears to continue in the meantime.

We enjoyed a lot of picture perfect "postcard" weather in September, but the lack of rainfall remains a big concern for the entire area.

 Weather Summary from the NWS in La Crosse, WI:

 Rochester Minnesota

 

 

 

...SEPTEMBER IN ROCHESTER WAS MARKED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH WAS 61.8 DEGREES. THIS WAS
0.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE AVERAGE HIGH WAS 75.6 DEGREES...WHILE
THE AVERAGE LOW WAS 48.0 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH WAS 93 DEGREES...WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 4TH. WHILE THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE IN SEPTEMBER WAS 32 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 23RD.

ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.29 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE MONTH
WHICH WAS 2.16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ONLY 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 13 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE GREATEST 24-HOUR
AMOUNT WAS 0.69 INCHES THAT OCCURRED ON THE 4TH AND 5TH.

...RECORDS...

THERE WERE NO RECORDS ESTABLISHED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STARTED OFF VERY WARM WITH TWO DAYS OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE FIRST 11 DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES DID
INVADED THE REGION AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT PASSAGES MADE THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THERE
WERE 6 DAYS WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S OVER THE LAST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

PRECIPITATION IN ROCHESTER WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MONTH AS
WEATHER SYSTEMS WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
WERE ONLY 7 DAYS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING SEPTEMBER. ONLY
1 OF THOSE DAYS HAD OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN ROCHESTER. A
SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUED DURING SEPTEMBER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...LOOKING AHEAD TO OCTOBER...

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS 48.4 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
HIGH DROPS FROM 65 DEGREES ON THE 1ST...TO 51 DEGREES ON THE 31TH.
THE AVERAGE LOW DROPS FROM 44 DEGREES ON THE 1ST...TO 34 DEGREES ON
THE 31ST. THE WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WAS IN 1963 WITH AN AVERAGE
OF 58.1 DEGREES...AND THE COLDEST OCTOBER WAS 37.9 DEGREES IN 1917.

THE AVERAGE OCTOBER PRECIPITATION IS 2.24 INCHES. THE WETTEST OCTOBER
OCCURRED IN 1911...WHEN 9.11 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL. THE DRIEST
OCTOBER WAS 1893...WHEN THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED FOR THE
MONTH. THE AVERAGE SNOWFALL IS EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE RECORD
SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE MONTH IS 7.9 INCHES...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2009.
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Posted under fall

This post was written by tschmidt on October 1, 2012

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Summer Weather Returns

The past two weeks have certainly been memorable for us as our weather has been nothing short of comfortable and refreshing.  This spell of cooler, drier, and at times, fall-like weather has been quite a departure from the previous seven weeks or so that featured scorching heat and intense bouts of heavy humidity that forced many of us to run the air conditioning nonstop.  Our weather remains quiet and comfortable today, but there are signs that changes are ahead in the not too distant future as more typical August-like days lie before us on the late August calendar.  High pressure is beginning to glide away to the east today, allowing a slight southerly breeze to work with our wall-to-wall sunshine to warm us quickly to more seasonably warm temperatures locally as highs will be near 80° this afternoon.  That warming trend will continue tomorrow as the jet stream flattens out and shifts a bit northward and warmer, slightly more humid works its way back into the weather picture.  A storm system to the west will trigger some rain and thunderstorms chances later tomorrow through much of Thursday while temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s and our air will feel more noticeably humid.  This more summer-like weather looks to be sticking around through the weekend and for most of next week, almost as if Mother Nature is trying to balance things out, making up for the September-like weather of the past two weeks.

The jet stream has been bucking southward recently, allowing cooler, more Canadian style air into the region.

The jet stream pattern over the next week or so leading up to the last portion of August is going to be a little flatter, more northward oriented, allowing warmer, more humid weather into the region.

 

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Posted under weather

This post was written by tschmidt on August 21, 2012

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The Latest on the Drought Situation

The latest drought monitor has been released and although we’ve received some nice, soaking showers in the past couple of days, very little has changed in the local drought headlines.  Much of north Iowa remains in the Severe Drought category of the drought monitor suggesting that crop loss may be inevitable for a large part of the local area and that only the longest period of wet weather would bring relief from the dryness.  Meanwhile, on the Minnesota side of the border there are some spots in Severe Drought while a large area is fortunate enough to be only slightly dry and not even listed in a drought monitor category.  For instance, Rochester is not officially in a drought category, but there is a rainfall deficit of more than two and a half inches and given a week or two of persistent dryness, we could slip into the Abnormally Dry category or some form of drought category so we’re still hoping for rain to keep things green and healthy.  The rainfall forecast is looking somewhat favorable for the area as we head into the weekend because a storm system is going to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and through a large portion of tomorrow with a quarter to possibly half an inch of rainfall possible.  That wouldn’t be a drought “buster,” but it would be a start.  Beyond that, we’ll have cooler weather for a couple of days before smaller rain chances slowly creep back into the forecast later next week.

The majority of our area remains dry while the driest conditions are well to the south in the region.

The southern tier of counties in Minnesota and southwestern part of the state is the driest while the rest is only slightly drier than normal.

The entire state of Iowa continues to suffer through our summer long drought with some locations as much as eight inches below normal for the year in rainfall.

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Posted under Drought

This post was written by tschmidt on August 3, 2012

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The August Outlook

It’s certainly been an unusually warm and at times very dry month of July across our area and it looks like that trend will carry over into the upcoming month of August.  As it stands right now, July 2012 has been the third warmest in Rochester’s history with a mean temperature of 77.2° (that’s 87.5° for the average high and 66.9° for the low.)  Those numbers tie us with July 1955 and it’s not impossible that we may end up in sole possession of third by the end of the month which is just hours away.  The next couple of days will certainly be warmer than normal as will most of this week, boosting our average.  The pattern won’t be quite as rough as the middle of July was when we were so hot and dry as a series of cold fronts will be marching through the region, keeping temperatures a little closer to normal and rainfall slightly more plentiful.  With that said, it does appear that odds are in favor of warmer than normal and drier than normal weather.  Beyond August there is hope that the rainfall situation will improve as the odds for dry and normal rainfall even out while warmer than normal weather is going to be a continuing trend through the fall and possibly the entire winter.

Climate Prediction Center Outlooks:

There's a strong possibility that we'll be warmer than normal for the month of August.

Our area is in the drier than normal outlook for precipitation in the month of August from the Climate Prediction Center.

 

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Posted under climate

This post was written by tschmidt on July 30, 2012

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A Little Rain is on the way, but the Drought Looks to Continue

We’re enjoying a bright, fairly dry Thursday with some seasonably warm weather across the area while hopes for some rain persist.  A weak storm system in the Dakotas is edging its way eastward, offering us at least the potential for a little relief from these very dry conditions.  Cloud cover will slowly increase today ahead of that storm system and its cold front with some light rain possibly developing as soon as the wee hours of Friday for us.  While there will be a chance for light rain through much of tomorrow and tomorrow night, possibly through early Saturday, rainfall totals do NOT look promising.  I know “every little bit helps,” right?  Well, right now I’m just hoping we all get at least a measurable amount of rain from this as the showers will battle some dry air initially and the front isn’t looking tremendously strong.  After this, there won’t be any decent rain chances until the middle of latter parts of next week, so there’s a lot of pressure on this storm system to deliver something useful.  Right now our rainfall deficit for the month is officially two and a half inches and more than four inches for the past month overall with some spots to the south drier than that.

The latest Drought Monitor has been released by the USDA and parts of our area are now back into “Abnormally Dry” or “Moderate Drought” categories.

Drought conditions are developing across southern and western Minnesota where rain has been sparse over the past month.

Moderate drought conditions are being experienced across northern Iowa while Severe Drought is just south of us.

 

The local rainfall forecast for Friday through Saturday morning. Totals look to be on the low side, but hopefully we'll get at least this much as atmospheric dryness may reduce amounts some.

 

Much of our area is in the Slight Risk of severe weather in the Storm Prediction Center's Friday outlook. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in our area late Friday through Friday night along an approaching cold front. Large hail and strong winds will be possible.

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Posted under Drought, rainfall, severe weather

This post was written by tschmidt on July 12, 2012

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April Summary

In contrast to the record setting month of March that felt more like May most of the time, our month of April was quite seasonable with a decent amount of rainfall in the area.  In Rochester, we were only couple of degrees above normal for the average high and low temperatures and we finished a little more than half an inch of rainfall below what we consider average.  As for snowfall, we had a trace a couple of times in the month, but nothing measurable.

The month of April this year was very typical in that the averages were close to the climate "norm" in most categories.

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Posted under climate

This post was written by tschmidt on May 1, 2012

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Some April-like Showers Today With Some May-like Temps Ahead

The warm, dry, gusty conditions we experienced over the weekend served as a reminder to us that we’re a little deficient in rainfall right now and certainly could use some more if we’re going to reduce the wildfire threat.  Thanks to some light to moderate showers last night and early this morning, things are looking a little better for us.  Totals ranged from a few hundredths of an inch to more than half an inch, so it wasn’t a major rainfall producer, but rather a nice, gentle rain that will seep into the soil and moisten things up a bit.  We’ll have just a few sparse, light showers from time to time today as that rain producing storm system slides through the area, but then we’ll have to wait until Friday or the weekend for another decent chance for some rain.  Between now and then we will be experiencing more of those warm, dry breezes, so by then we’ll probably be in need of a few soaking showers to hopefully green things up or at least just reduce the wildfire hazard in general.  We’re going to be having April or even May-like warmth this week with 60s Tuesday and a lot of lower 70 degree highs between Wednesday and Sunday.  The rainfall deficit for the month in Rochester including today’s rain is around a quarter of an inch and for the year, we actually have a slight surplus, but it’s the overall situation from last years extremely dry finale that leaves us needing a little more and if the forecast for the weekend and early next week holds up, we’ll make progress in that area.

Here’s a look at rainfall totals in the area from the past 24 hours:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1038 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...

LOCATION                   RAINFALL    TIME     LAT/LON

NORTHEAST IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
WAUKON                     0.34        0700 AM  43.27N 91.47W
LANSING 4SE                0.32        0700 AM  43.32N 91.16W
DORCHESTER HIGHWAY 76      0.30        0700 AM  43.42N 91.51W
ION                        0.28        0700 AM  43.11N 91.27W

...CHICKASAW COUNTY...
NEW HAMPTON                0.55        0700 AM  43.06N 92.31W
IONIA                      0.51        0700 AM  43.03N 92.50W

...CLAYTON COUNTY...
STRAWBERRY POINT           0.51        0700 AM  42.69N 91.53W
ELKADER 6SSW               0.38        0700 AM  42.79N 91.45W
VOLGA                      0.27        0700 AM  42.81N 91.52W
ELKADER                    0.23        0700 AM  42.84N 91.40W
EDGEWOOD                   0.22        0700 AM  42.65N 91.40W
LITTLEPORT                 0.21        0700 AM  42.75N 91.37W
MARQUETTE                  0.17        0700 AM  43.04N 91.21W
GUTTENBERG                 0.15        0700 AM  42.79N 91.10W
MCGREGOR                   0.12        0700 AM  43.02N 91.17W
GARBER                     0.11        0700 AM  42.74N 91.26W

...FAYETTE COUNTY...
OELWEIN AWOS               0.36        0700 AM  42.68N 91.97W
CLERMONT                   0.30        0700 AM  43.00N 91.66W
ELDORADO                   0.29        0700 AM  43.05N 91.81W
FAYETTE                    0.24        0700 AM  42.85N 91.82W
WEST UNION                 0.20        0700 AM

...FLOYD COUNTY...
CHARLES CITY AWOS          0.57        0700 AM  43.07N 92.61W
CHARLES CITY COOP          0.43        0700 AM  43.08N 92.67W
NASHUA                     0.42        0700 AM  42.94N 92.57W
CHARLES CITY CEDAR RVR     0.34        0700 AM  43.06N 92.67W

...HOWARD COUNTY...
ELMA                       0.42        0700 AM  43.24N 92.44W
CRESCO                     0.33        0700 AM  43.37N 92.11W

...MITCHELL COUNTY...
OSAGE                      0.52        0700 AM  43.28N 92.81W
ST ANSGAR                  0.50        0700 AM  43.37N 92.83W

...WINNESHIEK COUNTY...
BLUFFTON                   0.28        0700 AM  43.41N 91.90W
DECORAH AWOS               0.28        0700 AM  43.28N 91.74W
CALMAR                     0.26        0700 AM  43.18N 91.87W
DECORAH                    0.26        0700 AM  43.30N 91.80W

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
DODGE CENTER AWOS          0.26        0700 AM  44.03N 92.83W

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
PILOT MOUND                0.38        0700 AM  43.78N 92.03W
HARMONY                    0.33        0700 AM  43.55N 92.01W
SPRING VALLEY              0.31        0700 AM  43.69N 92.39W
PRESTON                    0.30        0700 AM  43.67N 92.07W
CARIMONA                   0.30        0700 AM  43.66N 92.15W
LANESBORO                  0.30        0700 AM  43.72N 91.97W
SPRING VALLEY 3E           0.29        0700 AM  43.68N 92.33W
SPRING VALLEY 1 NW         0.26        0700 AM  43.70N 92.40W
PRESTON AWOS               0.26        0700 AM  43.68N 92.18W
HIGHLAND                   0.26        0700 AM  43.65N 91.84W

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
SPRING GROVE 4N            0.30        0700 AM  43.61N 91.62W
CALEDONIA                  0.27        0700 AM  43.63N 91.50W
LA CRESCENT 1NNW           0.23        0700 AM  43.83N 91.31W
HOUSTON                    0.20        0700 AM  43.77N 91.57W
MOUND PRAIRIE              0.16        0700 AM  43.78N 91.45W
BROWNSVILLE                0.16        0700 AM  43.70N 91.27W

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN                     0.46        0700 AM  43.67N 92.95W
LANSING                    0.45        0700 AM  43.75N 92.95W
GRAND MEADOW               0.40        0700 AM  43.71N 92.56W
AUSTIN 3S                  0.37        0700 AM  43.62N 93.00W
AUSTIN AWOS                0.30        0700 AM  43.67N 92.93W

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
POST TOWN                  0.37        0700 AM  44.09N 92.82W
ELGIN                      0.31        0700 AM  44.10N 92.27W
DOVER                      0.31        0700 AM  44.01N 92.11W
ROCHESTER ASOS             0.30        0700 AM  43.90N 92.48W
ROCHESTER - CASCADE CREEK  0.29        0700 AM  44.03N 92.48W
ROCHESTER - SILVER CREEK   0.29        0700 AM  44.03N 92.42W
ROCHESTER - BEAR CREEK     0.27        0700 AM  43.92N 92.48W
ROCHESTER BELTLINE         0.25        0700 AM  43.91N 92.50W
ROCHESTER AP 2NE           0.22        0700 AM  43.93N 92.48W

...WABASHA COUNTY...
LAKE CITY COOP             0.46        0700 AM  44.43N 92.28W
THEILMAN                   0.42        0700 AM  44.28N 92.19W
WABASHA                    0.35        0700 AM  44.39N 92.05W
KELLOGG                    0.24        0700 AM  44.32N 92.00W
LAKE CITY                  0.20        0700 AM  44.45N 92.26W

...WINONA COUNTY...
ALTURA 5W                  0.33        0700 AM  44.06N 92.04W
MINNESOTA CITY             0.21        0700 AM  44.16N 91.81W
WINONA                     0.20        0700 AM  44.09N 91.67W
ALTURA                     0.20        0700 AM  44.15N 92.01W
DAKOTA                     0.14        0700 AM  43.92N 91.37W
WINONA AWOS                0.14        0700 AM  44.08N 91.70W
LA CRESCENT DAM 7          0.13        0700 AM  43.87N 91.31W

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

...ADAMS COUNTY...
FRIENDSHIP                 0.20        0700 AM  43.98N 89.83W

...BUFFALO COUNTY...
MONDOVI 6S                 0.36        0700 AM  44.48N 91.67W
ALMA DAM 4                 0.28        0700 AM  44.33N 91.92W

...CLARK COUNTY...
OWEN                       0.35        0700 AM  44.98N 90.55W
NEILLSVILLE                0.29        0700 AM  44.56N 90.61W
NEILLSVILLE 3SW            0.28        0700 AM  44.53N 90.64W

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN           0.26        0700 AM  43.05N 91.13W
SOLDIERS GROVE             0.25        0700 AM  43.39N 90.78W
LYNXVILLE DAM 9            0.21        0700 AM  43.21N 91.10W
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AWOS      0.19        0700 AM  43.30N 89.76W

...GRANT COUNTY...
SINSINAWA                  0.22        0700 AM  42.52N 90.54W
CUBA CITY                  0.20        0700 AM  42.63N 90.46W
BOSCOBEL ASOS              0.19        0700 AM  43.16N 90.68W
BOSCOBEL RAWS              0.18        0700 AM  43.15N 90.68W
PLATTEVILLE AWOS           0.12        0700 AM  42.69N 90.44W

...JACKSON COUNTY...
HATFIELD HYDRO PLANT       0.30        0700 AM  44.39N 90.76W
MATHER 3NW                 0.20        0700 AM  44.17N 90.35W
BLACK RIVER FALLS RAWS     0.17        0700 AM  44.30N 90.84W
BLACK RIVER FALLS          0.15        0700 AM  44.38N 90.84W

...JUNEAU COUNTY...
NEW LISBON 4ENE            0.26        0700 AM  43.91N 90.07W
NECEDAH                    0.23        0700 AM  44.00N 90.04W
NECEDAH 1W                 0.23        0700 AM  44.02N 90.08W
NECEDAH 5WNW               0.18        0700 AM  44.06N 90.17W

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
LA CROSSE WEATHER          0.22        0700 AM  43.82N 91.19W
HOLLAND                    0.20        0700 AM  43.97N 91.29W
HOLMEN 2S                  0.19        0700 AM  43.93N 91.25W
LA CROSSE ASOS             0.14        0700 AM  43.88N 91.26W
LA CROSSE                  0.11        0700 AM  43.80N 91.37W

...MONROE COUNTY...
CATARACT                   0.15        0700 AM  44.08N 90.85W
FOUR CORNERS               0.14        0700 AM  44.07N 90.92W
WARRENS                    0.13        0700 AM  44.10N 90.59W
TUNNEL CITY                0.12        0700 AM  44.01N 90.57W

...RICHLAND COUNTY...
RICHLAND CENTER 1NW        0.36        0700 AM  43.36N 90.42W

...TAYLOR COUNTY...
MEDFORD                    0.37        0700 AM  45.13N 90.34W
JUMP RIVER                 0.35        0700 AM  45.36N 90.80W
LUBLIN DIAMOND LAKE        0.30        0700 AM  45.11N 90.69W

...TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...
OSSEO                      0.32        0700 AM  44.58N 91.22W
GALESVILLE 3ENE            0.21        0700 AM  44.09N 91.29W
BLAIR 2NW                  0.20        0700 AM  44.31N 91.27W
GALESVILLE 2WSW            0.19        0700 AM  44.07N 91.39W
TREMPEALEAU DAM 6          0.18        0700 AM  44.00N 91.44W

...VERNON COUNTY...
DESOTO 1SE                 0.28        0700 AM  43.41N 91.19W
READSTOWN                  0.28        0700 AM  43.45N 90.76W
VIROQUA                    0.27        0700 AM  43.55N 90.90W
WESTBY 3ENE                0.22        0700 AM  43.68N 90.81W
LA FARGE                   0.21        0700 AM  43.57N 90.64W
ONTARIO 3E                 0.19        0700 AM  43.72N 90.60W
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Posted under rainfall, rainfall amounts, Uncategorized

This post was written by tschmidt on March 12, 2012

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Where’s The Snow?

So we are heading into Christmas and as noted in previous posts (1,2,3) as well as everyday observations from this winter to last winter we are in a snow deficit.  Obviously there is no snow on the ground at this time and to date we have only picked up 4.1 inches of snow through 16 days in December.  On top of that we are seeing temps running above normal, especially over the last week.  If you recall, the Climate Prediction Center called for an above normal snowfall and below normal temperature winter season, thanks to us being in a similar La-Nina pattern as we were last year.   It has been far from that so far, but  the Climate Prediction Center also stated that there was a wild card involved.  This wildcard is playing a huge role in our weather right now.

It is know as the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO).  It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection (thunderstorms). Rather than being a standing pattern (like La-Nina or El-Nino) it is a traveling pattern, propagating eastward through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This was discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian.

This atmospheric phenomenon will trump the La-Nina effects and it certainly has.   Below are a couple of pictures that illustrate how the propagating thunderstorm activity in the Indian and Pacific oceans translate to out weather in the United States.  You will notice that these are listed as phases.  As of December 16th, the MJO is currently in PHASE 5.  The first chart is temperature, the orange indicates above normal temperatures on average.  The right two panels show the percentages of the the temperature anomaly  in the left two boxes.  Phase 5 is located at the top of the column 2 in both the temperature and precipitation charts.

The same thing goes with the temperature charts below.  The brown represents drier than normal conditions.  The same PHASE 5 applies to the temperature charts as well.

Now the MJO oscillation typically persists for 30-60 days, an average of 45 days.  The MJO has shown some signs of weakening.  We may be on the verge of not having a white Christmas coming up but we may be compensated for the lack of snow in sometime in January or February, when La-Nina effects may take over again.

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Posted under climate, just cool

This post was written by jkegges on December 16, 2011

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A Retrospective Look at November

We turned the page on the calendar overnight and just like that, we went from November into December and from fall weather into winter as a cold front and its associated storm system brought brought us a dusting of snow to start the new month.  Of course, this is meteorological winter and we should expect this, but it’s just amazing how Old Man Winter can be so prompt sometimes.  Before today, most of us had only seen a minuscule amount of snow during our rather dry and mild November, a month that featured officially only 0.2 inches of snowfall in Rochester.   The average amount of November snow would be closer to 6 inches, but these things can be quite variable early in the season.  Some Novembers are much drier than others and this year’s version was especially so.  Here’s a look at the climate numbers from our dry and mild November:

It was the 8th warmest November in Rochester history and the driest in several years.

From the looks of things in our current forecast, we’ll be making up lost time in the way of snowfall as another storm system will move into the region this weekend, possibly bringing us more accumulating snow.  While it doesn’t look like a huge snow event, it may drop a little more snow than the past couple of storms in our area.

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Posted under climate

This post was written by tschmidt on December 1, 2011

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