Cold high pressure has settled in from the north, keeping skies generally clear during our Christmas Eve last night and still bright and sunny for today as well.  The sunshine won’t help much with our temperatures, however, as high temperatures will be the coldest of the season so far.  Most locations will top out around 10° which is about 15° colder than normal for this time of the year.  It’s also going to be officially the coldest Christmas Day since 2000 when Rochester set records for the coldest low with a reading of -25° that morning.  By the way, speaking of cold statistics, our stretch of days with non subzero temperatures continues thanks to a couple of thin clouds last night and perhaps just a little too much wind as Rochester’s official airport temperature was stuck at 2° for about four hours and then ended up bottoming out at 1° just before sunrise.  We’re up to 339 days now without dropping below zero, a record length of time for the city.  We’ll be close again tonight, so we’ll have to closely watch the thermometer again.  Otherwise it may be early next week before the next opportunity for subzero temperatures comes around.  Below is a look at some of the local and regional overnight lows from Christmas Eve.

Christmas Eve proved to be one of the coldest nights of the season so far locally.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
805 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

…MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING…

…LOCATION…                             …TIME…      …MIN…
BLACK RIVER FALLS AREA AIRPORT             715 AM DEC 25        -9 F
SPARTA/FORT MC COY AIRPORT (MONROE WI)     735 AM DEC 25        -9 F
STOCKTON (WINONA MN) (APRSWXNET)           713 AM DEC 25        -6 F
3 NW BUFFALO (WABASHA MN) (676 FT)(AWS)    739 AM DEC 25        -4 F
SAINT CHARLES (WINONA MN) (AWS)            745 AM DEC 25        -3 F
4 SSE MOUND PRAIRIE (HOUSTON MN)           746 AM DEC 25        -3 F
ZUMBRO FALLS (WABASHA MN) (APRSWXNET)      734 AM DEC 25        -3 F
3 NE LUBLIN (TAYLOR WI) (1316 FT)(RAWS)    714 AM DEC 25        -3 F
SAINT ANSGAR (MITCHELL IA) (APRSWXNET)     752 AM DEC 25        -3 F
1 ENE CRESCO (HOWARD IA) (1279 FT)(IEM)    638 AM DEC 25        -2 F
4 E GRAND MEADOW (MOWER MN) (IEM)          659 AM DEC 25        -2 F
1 E ROCKFORD (FLOYD IA) (1036 FT)(IEM)     654 AM DEC 25        -2 F
1 ENE DEXTER (MOWER MN) (MNDOT)            716 AM DEC 25        -2 F
2 E KASSON (DODGE MN) (1283 FT)(MNDOT)     649 AM DEC 25        -2 F
3 SE ROCHESTER (OLMSTED MN) (IEM)          745 AM DEC 25        -2 F
4 SSW LANESBORO (FILLMORE MN) (IEM)        744 AM DEC 25        -2 F
SAINT ANSGAR (MITCHELL IA) (IEM)           640 AM DEC 25        -2 F
COCHRANE (BUFFALO WI) (1083 FT)(AWS)       635 AM DEC 25        -1 F
2 SE EYOTA (OLMSTED MN) (MNDOT)            701 AM DEC 25        -1 F
1 WSW ROCHESTER (OLMSTED MN)               733 AM DEC 25        -1 F
BOSCOBEL AIRPORT (GRANT WI) (ASOS)         753 AM DEC 25        -1 F
PRESTON FILLMORE COUNTY AIRPORT            710 AM DEC 25         0 F
1 ESE ROCHESTER (OLMSTED MN) (IEM)         640 AM DEC 25         0 F
NECEDAH 1W (JUNEAU WI) (920 FT)(GOES)      748 AM DEC 25         0 F
AUSTIN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (MOWER MN)        735 AM DEC 25         0 F
3 NW DELLWOOD (JUNEAU WI) (APRSWXNET)      730 AM DEC 25         0 F
3 S ROCHESTER (OLMSTED MN) (APRSWXNET)     612 AM DEC 25         0 F
1 WNW SIDNEY (CLARK WI) (APRSWXNET)        541 AM DEC 25         0 F
2 E PERKINSTOWN (TAYLOR WI) (AIRNOW)       600 AM DEC 25         0 F
4 NW ROCHESTER (OLMSTED MN) (APRSWXNET)    720 AM DEC 25         0 F
MAZEPPA (WABASHA MN) (APRSWXNET)           531 AM DEC 25         0 F
2 ESE CANTON (FILLMORE MN) (MNDOT)         609 AM DEC 25         0 F
3 SE GRAND MARSH (ADAMS WI) (MESOWEST)     620 AM DEC 25         0 F
MAYO HELIPAD (OLMSTED MN) (AWOS)           753 AM DEC 25         0 F
1 SSE STEWARTVILLE (OLMSTED MN)            653 AM DEC 25         0 F
3 NE ROCHESTER (OLMSTED MN) (APRSWXNET)    714 AM DEC 25         0 F
DODGE CENTER AIRPORT (DODGE MN) (AWOS)     714 AM DEC 25         0 F
1 E RIDGEWAY (WINONA MN) (MNDOT)           732 AM DEC 25         1 F
ROCHESTER -37TH STREET (OLMSTED MN)        600 AM DEC 25         1 F
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN  AIRPORT (CRAWFORD WI)    755 AM DEC 25         1 F
2 SSW COUNCIL BAY (LA CROSSE WI)           734 AM DEC 25         1 F
1 E CRESCO (HOWARD IA) (1272 FT)(AWS)      637 AM DEC 25         1 F
FRIENDSHIP (ADAMS WI) (958 FT)(AWS)        654 AM DEC 25         1 F
CHARLES CITY (FLOYD IA) (993 FT)(AWOS)     715 AM DEC 25         1 F
RICHLAND CENTER (RICHLAND WI) (AWS)        709 AM DEC 25         1 F
PLAINVIEW (WABASHA MN) (1150 FT)(AWS)      524 AM DEC 25         1 F
4 SSE ARLINGTON (FAYETTE IA) (AWS)         749 AM DEC 25         1 F
1 ENE WABASHA (WABASHA MN) (APRSWXNET)     734 AM DEC 25         1 F
2 SSE KELLOGG (WABASHA MN) (MNDOT)         604 AM DEC 25         1 F
4 WNW BLACK RIVER FALLS (JACKSON WI)       636 AM DEC 25         1 F
WINONA MUNICPAL AIRPORT (WINONA MN)        713 AM DEC 25         1 F
MEDFORD TAYLOR COUNTY AIRPORT              715 AM DEC 25         1 F
ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT            454 AM DEC 25         1 F
DECORAH (WINNESHIEK IA) (982 FT)(AWS)      739 AM DEC 25         2 F
FENNIMORE (GRANT WI) (1175 FT)(AWS)        735 AM DEC 25         2 F
WEST UNION (FAYETTE IA) (1178 FT)(AWS)     654 AM DEC 25         2 F
MUSCODA (GRANT WI) (665 FT)(AWS)           734 AM DEC 25         2 F
MONONA (CLAYTON IA) (1182 FT)(AWS)         745 AM DEC 25         2 F
4 NNW RIDGEVILLE (MONROE WI) (WIDOT)       635 AM DEC 25         2 F
1 E LAKE CITY (WABASHA MN) (APRSWXNET)     753 AM DEC 25         2 F
4 E NORDNESS (WINNESHIEK IA) (IADOT)       653 AM DEC 25         2 F
2 N IONIA (CHICKASAW IA) (IADOT)           255 AM DEC 25         2 F
1 ENE BOSCOBEL (GRANT WI) (RAWS)           703 AM DEC 25         2 F
DE SOTO (CRAWFORD WI) (APRSWXNET)          631 AM DEC 25         2 F
2 WSW GALESVILLE (TREMPEALEAU WI)          742 AM DEC 25         2 F
2 NW HUMBIRD (JACKSON WI) (MESOWEST)       725 AM DEC 25         2 F
DECORAH MUNICIPAL AIPRORT                  735 AM DEC 25         3 F
3 SW RICHFIELD (CHICKASAW IA)              705 AM DEC 25         3 F
3 SW BARRE MILLS (LA CROSSE WI)            459 AM DEC 25         3 F
1 SW MOUNT STERLING (CRAWFORD WI)          634 AM DEC 25         3 F
1 E BLACK RIVER FALLS (JACKSON WI)         715 AM DEC 25         3 F
OELWEIN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (FAYETTE IA)     755 AM DEC 25         3 F
VIROQUA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (VERNON WI)      715 AM DEC 25         3 F
LA CROSSE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT                653 AM DEC 25         3 F
MCGREGOR (CLAYTON IA) (992 FT)(AWS)        744 AM DEC 25         4 F
1 SSE RICHLAND CENTER (RICHLAND WI)        739 AM DEC 25         4 F
MAUSTON (JUNEAU WI) (872 FT)(APRSWXNET)    714 AM DEC 25         4 F
2 N TOMAH (MONROE WI) (990 FT)(WIDOT)      431 AM DEC 25         5 F
1 SW LA CROSSE (LA CROSSE WI)              736 AM DEC 25         5 F
MONONA (CLAYTON IA) (APRSWXNET)            648 AM DEC 25         5 F
3 SE LYNDON STATION (JUNEAU WI)            502 AM DEC 25         5 F
3 NW VALLEY JUNCTION (MONROE WI)           650 AM DEC 25         5 F
1 W FRENCH ISLAND (LA CROSSE WI)           630 AM DEC 25         6 F
3 S LA CROSSE (LA CROSSE WI) (AIRNOW)      600 AM DEC 25         6 F
1 WNW TENNYSON (GRANT WI) (AIRNOW)         600 AM DEC 25         8 F

Posted under Cold, Holidays, Lows

Seasonably cold arctic air has poured into the region on the heels of Thursday’s blizzard and, from the looks of things, it may be here for quite some time.  The storm system (“Draco” as the Weather Channel is calling it) that produced heavy snow and strong winds in our area has moved on to the east, but behind it, colder air is pouring in ahead of a broad area of high pressure.  The pattern aloft is changing as well, as colder air is pushing southward.  The storm track will be south of us for the most part next week while cold, dry arctic air will dominate our Christmas week forecast.

Colder air is moving in today while high pressure ahead of us will make for a quiet, chilly weekend.

A pattern change will push the main storm track to the south while cold, dry air lingers in our region. A large storm system is expected to develop in Colorado, moving southeastward and affecting the Gulf states and eventually East Coast while our next chance for accumulating snow may hold off until next weekend.

Posted under Uncategorized, winter weather

We’ve been talking for days, and even weeks about how unusual it is to have a brown Christmas and here’s some more holiday climate information for both Rochester and La Crosse from our friends at the National Weather Service:

Christmas 2011: A Green and Unusually Warm One

The Christmas of 2011 will be remembered for its lack of snow on the ground and being unusually warm.  More details on this can be found below.

Snowless…

With the exception of a few locations (Medford, Lynxville, and Steuben), most areas had little or no snow cover this morning at 7 AM.  This made this Christmas the first green one since 2006.  The maps below show the snow depth across the area at this time.

La Crosse, WI has had “white” Christmases (at least one inch of snow on the ground at 6 AM, measurable snow falls on that Christmas, or both) 85 times since 1893, or 73% of the time (note: data unavailable for 1985 and therefore not included in this percentage).  Other non-”white” Christmases include: 1894, 1896, 1907, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1917, 1918, 1922, 1923, 1928, 1931, 1932, 1936, 1939, 1941, 1943, 1946, 1953, 1960, 1965, 1967, 1971, 1975, 1979, 1980, 1982, 1986, 1988, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2006.

Rochester, MN has had “white” Christmases 59 times (out of 74) since 1933, or 80% of the time. The years of 1936, 1941, 1942, and 1943 were excluded from the statistics due to missing data.  Other non-”white” Christmases include: 1944, 1949, 1953, 1958, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1979, 1980, 1982, 1986, 1988, 1997, 2002, 2006.

Unusually Warm…

La Crosse, WI…Warmest Christmas since 1999

With the lack of snow cover and quite a bit of sunshine, the high temperature at La Crosse, WI climbed to 42 degrees.  This made it the warmest Christmas in La Crosse since 1999 when the high temperature was also 42 degrees.  This tied 1953 and 1999 for the ninth warmest Christmas in La Crosse.  The warmest Christmas ever recorded was 55 degrees in 1936.  The table below lists the ten warmest Christmases in La Crosse, WI.

Warmest Christmases
in La Crosse WI
1872-2011

Rank     Temperature      Year
1        55 degrees      1936
2        54 degrees      1881
3        46 degrees      1982
4        45 degrees      1940
45 degrees      1912
6        44 degrees      1928
44 degrees      1922
44 degrees      1877
9        42 degrees      2011
42 degrees      1999
42 degrees      1953

Rochester, MN…Warmest Christmas Since 1959

With the lack of snow cover and quite a bit of sunshine, the high temperature at Rochester MN climbed to 41 degrees.  This made it the warmest Christmas in Rochester since 1959 when the high temperature was also 41 degrees.  This tied 1959 for the third warmest Christmas in Rochester.  The warmest Christmas ever recorded was 50 degrees in 1936.  The table below lists the ten warmest Christmases in Rochester, MN.

Warmest Christmases
in Rochester MN
1886-2011

Rank     Temperature      Year
1        50 degrees      1936
2        42 degrees      1928
3        41 degrees      2011
41 degrees      1959
5        40 degrees      1940
6        39 degrees      1999
39 degrees      1994
39 degrees      1953
39 degrees      1943
10        38 degrees      1963
38 degrees      1954

Posted under Holidays

A weak “clipper” system is swinging through the region today, producing a little light festive snow for us, but accumulations are rather light and thanks to a mild weekend, it won’t be lingering through the holiday.  A ridge of high pressure is expected to build back into the Upper Mississippi Valley behind today’s disturbance, bringing bright, quiet sunshine to our area for Christmas Eve Day and Christmas Day, meaning we’ll have perfect travel conditions for the entire holiday weekend.  Here’s the holiday weekend forecast for a few regional cities:

The Chicago Forecast

The Des Moines Forecast

The Fargo Forecast

The Rapid City, South Dakota Forecast

Posted under Holidays

So we are heading into Christmas and as noted in previous posts (1,2,3) as well as everyday observations from this winter to last winter we are in a snow deficit.  Obviously there is no snow on the ground at this time and to date we have only picked up 4.1 inches of snow through 16 days in December.  On top of that we are seeing temps running above normal, especially over the last week.  If you recall, the Climate Prediction Center called for an above normal snowfall and below normal temperature winter season, thanks to us being in a similar La-Nina pattern as we were last year.   It has been far from that so far, but  the Climate Prediction Center also stated that there was a wild card involved.  This wildcard is playing a huge role in our weather right now.

It is know as the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO).  It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection (thunderstorms). Rather than being a standing pattern (like La-Nina or El-Nino) it is a traveling pattern, propagating eastward through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This was discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian.

This atmospheric phenomenon will trump the La-Nina effects and it certainly has.   Below are a couple of pictures that illustrate how the propagating thunderstorm activity in the Indian and Pacific oceans translate to out weather in the United States.  You will notice that these are listed as phases.  As of December 16th, the MJO is currently in PHASE 5.  The first chart is temperature, the orange indicates above normal temperatures on average.  The right two panels show the percentages of the the temperature anomaly  in the left two boxes.  Phase 5 is located at the top of the column 2 in both the temperature and precipitation charts.

The same thing goes with the temperature charts below.  The brown represents drier than normal conditions.  The same PHASE 5 applies to the temperature charts as well.

Now the MJO oscillation typically persists for 30-60 days, an average of 45 days.  The MJO has shown some signs of weakening.  We may be on the verge of not having a white Christmas coming up but we may be compensated for the lack of snow in sometime in January or February, when La-Nina effects may take over again.

Posted under climate, just cool

A few updates on this week’s system:

-Models, while not in agreement yet, are converging more to somewhat of an idea of where this low pressure is headed. If all pans out, the center of it will track from Missouri on Christmas Eve to around the Chicago/southern Michigan area by Christmas Day. That leaves a lot of wiggle room for where the heaviest snow would fall in our area. Right now, anywhere from central Minnesota south to Iowa and into Wisconsin would be game for picking up the heaviest snowfall amounts.

-This is appearing to want to shape up as a long-duration event. Some of the data suggests this getting underway Wednesday evening, with light to moderate snow falling through Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. Worst case scenario, that could mean 24-48 hours straight snow, and even with light amounts of half an inch an hour…you do the math.

-Winds. There’s some concern of winds ramping up and blowing around some of this snow, especially on Christmas Day.

Bottom line: Too many unknowns yet, but if this pans out to what it’s looking like, we could be facing a rivalling Dec 8/9th storm. What I can tell you is that, if you’re traveling, start preparing now for the possibility of very difficult travel come midweek, both driving and flying.

I understand this is a big holiday with lots of people wanting and trying to get home, and we don’t control the weather even though this may seem like we’re punishing you. We’re not. You’ve all  been very good this year.  Things can change, for better or for worse, so stay tuned, keep checking back, and at least bask in the glory that we’ll for sure have a White Christmas (cue the Bing Crosby song).

Posted under winter weather

Let’s catch you up on a couple of items:

Look for 1-2″ of snow between mid-day Sunday and Sunday evening. It’s a quick moving Alberta Clipper that’s going to come through. Just enough to keep things slick tomorrow.

OK, and let’s get you caught up to speed on this talk about the pending Christmas Storm. Basically – we’re too far out yet to put anything in stone. In sand, I can tell you that the midsection of the country will be affected by significant snowfall amounts if this thing manifests, come Thursday and Friday. I understand there’s a great deal of interest in this because of the holidays, but when we know more, even a smidgen of info, we’ll pass it along. I’ll have an update coming up Sunday on the NewsCenter at 5 and 10….and you’ll find any new info right here, on our Facebook page, KTTC.com, and on our Twitter pages.

Posted under winter weather

After a snowy and windy weekend, we’re facing some more snowfall in our area as soon as tonight.  In fact, a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for most of the viewing area effective midnight tonight through 3:00 Tuesday afternoon as up to 5 inches of fresh snow will be possible.  Up to three inches of that snow will fall by early Tuesday morning with another inch or two in the forecast during the day tomorrow, possibly slowing things down for local commuters and for regional holiday travelers.  Winds will not be as much a factor as they were for the weekend, but still our south winds tomorrow will be a bit brisk at times, perhaps reducing visibilities a bit.  Thankfully, temperatures will be more seasonable with highs near 20 degrees so wind chills will be more tolerable than in recent days.  Snow will wind down by the evening hours tomorrow with another light dusting of snow possible early Wednesday morning.  Amazingly, our weather still looks tranquil for Christmas Day on Thursday with sunshine expected in the area.

Posted under weather, winter weather

It’s quiet.  Really quiet.  Almost too quiet.  It’s so quiet here I have no idea what to write about that might be of any interest to the casual observer.  Ted mentioned (yesterday) the fact that astronomical fall begins tomorrow (Monday, September 22nd, 2008) at 10:44am CDT.  Is that the official start to fall?  Merriam-Webster defines ‘official’ (in the adjective sense) as

prescribed or recognized as authorized <an official language> c: described by the United States Pharmacopeia or the National Formulary

There are limited ways to define the beginning of autumn (or any season for that manner), and the easiest and most sensible way (in my bold opinion) to make it “official” is to base the beginning of any season on equinox and solstice.  We call this ’Astronomical Autumn’.  Clearly our calendar makers agree this is the beginning of the season.  However, we meteorologists, because we have a penchant for quantifying statistics within a reasonable timeframe, break our seasons into 3-month increments for ease of record keeping.  ‘Meteorological autumn’ started September 1st and will end November 30th. 

As far as I can tell, there isn’t anything “official” about the beginning of any season by the definition of the word.

Either way…the leaves are changing, trout season is coming to a close in southeast Minnesota, and there are 94 shopping days until Christmas.

Posted under Astronomy, weather