It has been a long time since we have talked about something being above average other than the temperature.  The February of 2013 is changing that though.  Through February so far we have had 15″ of snow fall at the Rochester International Airport.  That was jump started by day after day after day of Clippers to start the month and then recently with the biggest snowstorm we have had in the last two winters.  Climatologically speaking,  February is the least snowy of the snowy months, but during the Winter of 12/13 it has been the snowiest.  Not only has it been the snowiest this Winter, we have actually cracked the top 10 snowiest for the month of February.  Here’s the list of five through ten.

In the coming days we will have a chance to climb up this list a little higher.  We are watching a large system that will feature the heaviest snow staying well to the south and east of our area, but come Tuesday and Wednesday, we will have a chance to be scraped by this system.

This is how the storm will look on Monday evening.  This system will likely bring a full blown Blizzard to parts of the plain states.  The track again will stay away from us, most likely putting Chicago in the bulls eye after slamming portions of Kansas and Missouri with over a foot of snow.  Our chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday and the intensity will be MUCH lighter.  With that said, a jog in the track northward would change things drastically so we are still monitoring the track of this one.

February has definitely brought active weather back to Minnesota.  Hopefully this stretch will continue to help replenish area streams and rivers.  The recent liquid will help somewhat to do that, but we need this active weather to continue into spring to help put a dent in the drought since the ground is still frozen.  Fingers crossed, but definitely a positive sign going forward!

Posted under climate, Drought, history, minnesota, Records, weather, winter, winter weather

As advertised another winter storm is coming this way, but like the last one, it will feature ice.  We will be on the “warm” side of the system that will feature a number of different precipitation types.  Precip should start out as freezing rain for most as the precipitation moves north through Iowa, eventually crossing into southern Minnesota.

Like with the storm a couple of weeks ago, even with the changing precip types, ice will be the biggest factor.  It will likely impact travel through the first half of Sunday, if not even longer.  Salt has issues with freezing rain since the rain washes the salt off the roads before freezing on contact to all surfaces that are below freezing.  The graphic below shows ice accumulations approaching a tenth of an inch of ice, but amounts could be a little higher thanks to road surfaces staying below freezing even when the air temperature is above freezing.

By the mid to late afternoon there will be a better shot to see just plain rain, but take note that untreated road surfaces could still have patchy icy spots through the entire day.  Even though the air temperature may read above freezing Sunday, road surfaces have the potential to be below freezing for much if not all of the day.  The rain, potentially with a few rumbles of thunder will then change back over to snow as colder air enters the storm.  We could pick up an inch or so by early Monday morning.  In case you were wondering, if this was all snow, we would probably pick up around 5-10 inches give or take.  One can dream right?  Out west and north in the warning areas could pick up over a foot in spots.

Posted under winter, winter weather

It has a been a year to remember, or forget when it comes to natural disasters.  Hurricane Irene could make 2011 a little harder to forget.  To date there have been 10 natural disasters in the United States that have topped the 1 Billion dollar mark in damages.  That ties a record and that does not include Hurricane Irene, which still has to be analyzed, but when its all said and done, the record will likely fall.  Can you name the ten to hit this year?  If you need help… they are listed below:

1.  Groundhog Day Blizzard: January 29 – February 3, 2011

This will forever be the iconic blizzard for years to come.  36 people were killed as a result of the storm.  Total losses were estimated at $2 dollars.  Remember the picture of the cars stranded on lake shore drive in Chicago?

2. Midwest/Southeast tornadoes April 4-5, 2011

This was pretty much the start of it all when it comes to the tornado outbreaks of this past year.  Strong cold air pushing south from Canada caught up with warm, humid air across the U.S. Southeast to produce severe weather and tornadoes in Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina.  Forty-six tornadoes were confirmed during this event, and nine lives were lost.  Insured losses were estimated around $1.6 billion with total losses of $2.3 billion.

3.  Southeast/Midwest tornadoes April 8-11, 2011

This one hit closest to home.  A Violent EF-4 tornado ripped through the town of Mapleton, IA, just outside of our viewing area.  This was part of an outbreak that hit Eastern and Central Wisconsin the next day.  Supercells were born in our area and quickly raced toward the east leveling towns.  Thankfully, there were no fatalities reported in this event.  Total losses were around 2.2 billion dollars.

4. Midwest/Southeast tornadoes April 14-16, 2011:

Approximately 160 tornadoes struck portions of the midwestern and southeastern United States, killing 38 people. Insured losses of $1.4 billion were recorded, with total losses over $2 billion.  The most memorable tornadoes hit in North Carolina.  Here’s a picture of a Lowes home improvement store that collapsed.  This was the biggest tornado outbreak of the year to that point.  Little did we know the biggest one in recorded history was 10 days away.

5. Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornado outbreak aka “Super Outbreak” – April 25-30, 2011

Up until this tornado outbreak, the 1974 “Super Outbreak” Was the benchmark of all tornado outbreaks.  This event has been called “Super Outbreak 2″ by some… and rightfully so.   305 confirmed tornadoes and 327 deaths. Losses were over $6.6 billion insured, over $9 billion total.  This event broke records some thought would never be broken from the outbreak of ’74.  Since the Enhanced Fujita Scale was created back in 2007, there have only been 2 Ef-5 Tornadoes.  After the dust settled with this event, there were 6.  Below is a radar image from the worst day of the event.

6.Midwest/Southeast tornadoes May 22-27, 2011

One city name and you will instantly be able to call this one.  Joplin, Missouri.  An EF-5 tornado demolished the city.  In its wake , 141 people were killed.  Losses were estimated over $7 billion.

7.  Southern Plains/Southwest drought, heatwave, and wildfires spring-summer 2011

As a result of a severe drought $5 billion dollars in direct losses to agriculture, cattle and structures.

8.  Mississippi River flooding spring-summer 2011

The snow melt from our area and points north from a very snowy winter filled the upper Mississippi and flowed down south.  This caused major flooding in the Tennessee river valley and other points in the southern United States. $2-$4 billion dollars in economic losses with two deaths were associated with the floods.

View from above of the flooding in the south from the Mississippi River

9. Upper Midwest flooding summer 2011

This was another event that happened close to home and was in local news because of the proximity to us and because of how severe the flooding was.  It is estimated that 11,000 people had to evacuate Minot, North Dakota due to rising waters in the Souris River.  Over $2 billion dollars in losses have occurred due to the extreme flooding in these areas.

And again, if we get 10, it will break the record.  Could Hurricane Irene be it?  We will keep you posted!

Posted under Natural Disaster, severe weather, Uncategorized, weather

Welcome to February! A massive snowstorm will just barely miss our area, but the farther south and east you head into Iowa and Wisconsin (and continuing south and east of there), you will run into blizzard conditions. Infact, Des Moines, Ames, Waterloo, Madison, and Milwaukee (and others south and east of there) are in blizzard warnings through Wednesday. We could see some blowing snow here at home with the high winds and fresh snowfall.

Speaking of which, here are reported snowfall totals to the NWS La Crosse, Chanhassen, and Des Moines from the recent snowfall:

Posted under snowfall amounts, winter, winter weather

Updated snowfall totals as of 4:45 pm:

Earlier:

Strong wording from the NWS La Crosse about this storm. Will most likely go down as one of our biggest snowstorms of at least modern records.

“GREATLY CONCERNED WITH SERN MN BECAUSE OF THE HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS IN PLACE…AND THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. DRIFTS COULD BE 4-6 FEET IN THAT AREA BY 3 AM. THIS WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR ANYONE TRAVELING…WITH EMERGENCY SERVICES PROBABLY STOPPED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FROM THE HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT.”

Updated warnings for the area, as of 2:30pm Saturday"

The worst of this storm is just getting going…no joke. Wind gusts are starting to pick up and there is more heavy snow that will fall. Things will continue to worsen this afternoon and evening.

All of our counties are under a Blizzard Warning through Sunday morning.

Latest snowfall reports as of 2:30 pm:

Posted under winter, winter weather

Current local snowfall forecast for Friday night and Saturday. Disclaimer: THIS MAY CHANGE!!!!

Local watches and warnings for this weekend's winter storm.

We’re continuing to watch a big storm that will be affecting our area this weekend. This system has been an honest nightmare to forecast – with inconsistencies in the model track being the biggest headache. With a waffling storm track, keep in mind that these totals below have a very good chance of changing. Overall, it appears snowfall totals of 4-8″ will be possible, with lesser totals to the south, and higher amounts to the north.  From the cities into western Wisconsin, a band of 12+” is possible.

Being brutally honest – we have low confidence with totals for this storm with all of the difficulties with forecasting it. More so, with above-freezing temperatures in northern Iowa, most of this could start as rain before it changes over to snow, which would put a HUGE dent in snowfall totals. This all depends on the exact track the storm will take.

What we do know for a fact – there will be travel difficulties tonight and Saturday across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. There will be blowing snow with near-blizzard conditions on Saturday/Saturday night.

The Winter Storm Watch (blue counties) and Blizzard Watch (green counties) will be changed to an advisory or warnings of some nature later on, depending on how the storm plays out. Stay tuned.

Here are the basics:

What to expect – Minnesota

Tonight: Precip to start late this evening: freezing rain/sleet/mushy snow. Some icing may occur. Snow by tomorrow morning: 1-3″.
Saturday: Snow, blowing snow, low visibilities. Another 4-7″ possible.
Saturday night: Snow tapering off, blowing snow, low visibilities. Storm totals: 5-10″.
Sunday: Bitterly cold, blowing snow.

What to expect – Iowa

Tonight: Precip to start late this evening: rain/freezing rain/sleet/mushy snow. Some icing may occur. Snow by tomorrow morning: 1-2″.
Saturday: Snow, blowing snow, low visibilities. Another 2-3″ possible.
Saturday night: Snow tapering off, blowing snow, low visibilities. Storm totals: 3-5″.
Sunday: Bitterly cold, blowing snow.

More data will come in later today, and we’ll keep you updated. Stay tuned and bear with us during the weekend……

Posted under winter, winter weather

High pressure is making for a cold, but peaceful day for us in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa today as skies are going to be sunny and the winds will be as close to calm as they get this time of the year.  However, a year ago it was quite the opposite.  The heaviest snow producing storm of the season was bearing down on our area on this date, not only creating concerns about heavy snowfall, but also the threat of blizzard conditions as the winds surrounding the storm were expected to be in the 30 to 40 mile per hour range, a huge headache for those traveling around our local area and a factor that would keep snowplows on the roads for a couple of days with no time to rest.  The snow started falling just before sunrise on Tuesday the 8th, slowing traffic down a little during the day, but east winds ahead of the low pressure center were only in the 10 to 15 mile per hour range, so blowing snow wouldn’t become a factor until later in the night.  Snowfall became heavier late in the afternoon and evening while the winds began to get gusty.  By midnight on Tuesday the 8th, we had 8.3 inches of snow on the ground in Rochester, a record for that date, but the snow wasn’t finished yet.  In fact, another 4.5 inches fell between midnight and mid morning on the 9th.  Meanwhile, the National Weatehr Service issued a Blizzard Warning for the entire viewing area as visibilities had fallen down to less than a quarter of a mile and snow was drifting badly.  Winds turned to the northwest on Wednesday, the 9th and were consistently gusting beyond 30 miles per hour while colder air was pouring into the region behind the storm system which by then had begun to move to our east.  Temperatures fell dramatically during the day, starting out in the lower 20s first thing in the morning, and then falling into the single digits in the afternoon as the snow tapered off.  The official low for the day was -3 at 11:59pm with wind chills around -25 by the late evening.  Traffic was paralyzed all day long in the blizzard that encompassed the entire region while overall snowfall totals ranged from 9 to 16 inches, 12.8 inches of which was measured in Rochester…and let me tell you, it was not easy to measure that snow because of the drifting!

The blizzard of December 8-9, 2009 was the first major snow event of last season in a month that featured an overall snowfall total of 26. inches.   That’s more than twice the average snowfall for December.  Thankfully, we don’t have anything remotely resembling that storm in our current forecast, but there will be chances for minor snow accumulations tomorrow and then again early Saturday.  Otherwise, cold temperatures will continue to make headlines with a major cold snap in store of the end of the weekend and early next week that may bring us our first single digit highs of the season.

Posted under history

By the way….just how powerful this storm is…

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1030 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

*  AVERAGE AMONG SEVERAL CURRENT FORECAST MODELS

10:00pm update:

Tornado Watch from 10pm Mon-6am Tues

Tornado Watch in effect now until 6 am for our northeastern Iowa counties, into southwest Wisconsin.

I can’t believe I’m typing this, but this is just how powerful this storm system is, guys. Strong storms can’t be ruled out over the rest of the area, but by far, the severe storms – the ones that may be capable of producing tornadoes – should be confined to the tornado watch area.

Why? Add a “bombing” (met. talk for rapidly deepening storm system) low, strong moisture transport, and a ton of strong spin in the atmosphere, and you have the ingredients for wonky end-of-October severe weather.

Stay tuned….

High Wind Warning Tuesday 7 am to Wednesday 7 pm

4:00pm update: High Wind Warning has been issued for our entire viewing area from 7 am Tuesday – 7 pm Wednesday. Winds will increase tonight and will be sustained 25-40mph+, with gusts to 55-60mph+. That will be enough to make getting around difficult and could cause some damage to trees, powerlines, anything loose outside.

Earlier:
We’ve been telling you for a few days now about a large, intense storm system that is going to be pushing through the Upper Midwest in the next day or so, producing some rain and nasty winds for our area, and that still certainly looks to be the case.  However, there are other parts of the region that will potentially have a much worse situation than we will as

Strong winds and light snow will possibly create blizzard conditions for portions of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. This storm system will push through the region between tonight and Wednesday.

snow…yes snow will likely enter the picture and blizzard conditions will be a real possibility.  The latest forecast data suggests that northern North Dakota and far northern Minnesota will be on the north side of the storm system and will experience a change from rain to snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with two to four inches of accumulation during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening before the storm system moves away to the northeast, putting an end to the precipitation from this event.  Of course, when you add in the 45 to 55 mile per hour gusts that will accompany this snow on Wednesday, there will likely be some nasty blowing snow and blizzard conditions.  If you have travel plans to that portion of the region, make sure to keep up to date on the forecast picture in the next day or two and possibly push your travel plans to Thursday when the weather will be much quieter.

Our local weather will be a bit wet today with a few scattered showers possible during the day, especially late in the afternoon.  There will be more widespread thundershowers in the area this evening and overnight tonight with an inch or more of rainfall possible as that storm system and its associated cold front push through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  The winds we’ve been talking about will pick up quite a bit overnight and very early tomorrow morning, gusting to 40 miles per hour initially with gusts to 50 miles per hour in the afternoon while the rain gradually tapers off.  Wednesdya will feature a few sparse light rain showers with strong southwest winds that will reach 50 ot even 60 miles per hour at times while high temperatures will be only in the middle 40s.  A High Wind Watch is in effect from tomorrow morning through Wednesday evening because of the dangers to property and high profile vehicles from those intense winds.

Posted under winter weather

Both I-90 and I-35, previously shut-down due to blizzard conditions, are back open. You can read more at KTTC.com.

We’ll still see some blowing and drifting snow today, but not as bad as Monday. Look for sub-zero wind chills for your Tuesday.

Posted under winter weather

Hi all. We’re trying to keep everything updated at we get into this event. For now, sit tight, or sit tight soon if you’re not yet, be safe!!!

You can join our live blog on our homepage (KTTC.com). So far we’ve had over 3600 visits. We’re working as quickly as we can to get to your questions.

We have all the warnings on our weather page (also at KTTC.com) and also links to driving/road reports on this blog as well (click on the severe weather tab at the top).

You can email us your photos: weather@kttc.com; upload them to iSubmit at KTTC.com, or upload them to our Facebook page.

Posted under Uncategorized