So it’s April Fools Day and there is a Winter Storm Watch in effect. I’m not playing a joke on you, but apparently Mother Nature is. Again, no joke there is a chance for ice and snow accumulation locally starting late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. The main event will be Thursday and Friday…that is when a Winter Storm Watch goes into effect for the counties shaded in blue below. I do expect more counties to be added to the watch area as the hours draw closer to the start of rain/sleet/snow/freezing rain. Yes, all of the above, that is what will make this storm very tricky to forecast.
Currently as of Tuesday Night, the upper level low that will go into creating our storm was just coming onto the California shoreline. It is the large swirl just north of Sacramento on the water vapor imagery.
The next question is the track. In a situation like this, 50-100 miles will mean the difference to a lot of snow, a lot of ice, a little bit of both, or some combination of all 3. If this storm came in January, there would be more cold air for the storm to work with and precip. type wouldn’t be a huge issue, but since there is warmer air to deal with in April there is. The map below depicts a couple of scenarios with the track of low pressure.
A lot can still change with this storm. We will be fine tuning the track over the coming hours and expect more specifics soon as to whether more ice/rain vs. snow will fall locally From late Wednesday in Friday.