Mid-Year Rainfall Update

July 1, 2013 0 Comments

With six full months of a very wet and rainy 2013 under our belt it’s time to assess the situation to get an idea of where we stand statistically with our overall rainfall totals.  First of all, we’ve already surpassed the entire rainfall total of a very dry 2012 which was a paltry 24.85″, eliminating the drought headlines from the entire region before even officially reaching summer.  Now we’re just two and a quarter inches from reaching the normal amount of rainfall for the entire year.  In a typical year, we could do that by the middle of July, believe it or not.  Of course, that’s not necessarily a done deal, as right now we’re entering a slightly drier pattern that may last a week or so, reducing the likelihood of having such a rainy month and measuring two or three inches by mid month this time around.  At any rate, having an wetter than normal year is all but a statistical “slam dunk” and the possibility of setting a record this year still seems very possible if not probable.  Coming into the month of July, we have so far measured 30.76″ of rainfall in Rochester (33.02″ is the average annual total) and if we just manage to receive the average amount of rainfall for the next six month through the end of 2013, we’ll shatter the annual rainfall record of 43.94″ set in 1990 with a staggering total of 48.66″.  That’s just statistical fantasy right now, of course and far from likely given the laws of averages and other mathematical things that may hinder our numerical chances of climbing to that gawdy total.  The Climate Prediction Center gives us “equal chances” of having above or below normal rainfall each month for the rest of the year, so there’s no strong indication that our unusually wet year will continue or if things will settle down a bit.  It’ll certainly be interesting to see what happens to say the least!

Ted Blog1    

We're on pace to break the all-time annual rainfall record for Rochester.

We’re on pace to break the all-time annual rainfall record for Rochester.

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