We’ve been dealing with some nasty, raw, rainy weather today and it’s only going to get more unpleasant and more difficult to deal with over the next couple of days thanks to the arrival of a large, dynamic storm system from the west.  We’ve already been inundated with rain from this system today and will continue to experience light to moderate rainfall through the afternoon and evening.  Because of the heavy rainfall earlier today and concerns with heavy runoff from these showers, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch effective until 7:00 PM Thursday for a large portion of our viewing area.

Up to three inches of total rainfall may fall this week in the affected counties, causing localized flooding.

the next phase of this storm system will be a gradual transition to winter weather late tonight through Wednesday and Thursday.  We’ll first see a transition from rain to freezing rain late tonight into early Wednesday morning with some ice accumulation possible, especially on tree branches and power lines.  By midday and afternoon Wednesday, it looks to eb a light rain event for most of us.  There will be another changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and light snow Wednesday night with mainly snow falling by Thursday morning.  During the day Thursday three to six inches of snow may accumulate in southeastern Minnesota with heavier amounts to the north and northwest in the Twin Cities area and western Minnesota where six to twelve inches will be possible.  Locations along the Iowa border and in northern Iowa itself can expected three inches or less by the time the snow tapers off Thursday evening.

Those in the Winter Weather Advisory can expect freezing rain at times Tuesday night, through parts of Wednesday, and Wednesday night, and then three to six inches of snow Thursday. Areas south of the Winter Weather Advisory will see lighter amounts.

Posted under flooding, winter weather

It’s April, we just had a couple of days in the 50s, we’ve turned the corner right?  Wrong!  Winter looks like it is going to make a late season push during the middle of the week.  Rain chances and even an outside chance for a rumble of thunder come into play late Sunday and especially overnight into Monday.  Rain will continue in waves on and off through Wednesday.  Over the next 48 hours, some places could approach or exceed an inch of rainfall.  With some frost still in the ground, minor river flooding could occur over the next few days.

By Wednesday afternoon much cooler air will interact with this large storm system.  Snow will likely mix with rain for a while, but it looks as if the air will be cold enough Wednesday night through Thursday to support all snow.  Now the ground is warmer and the sun angle is getting higher every day, two things that will work against the snow accumulating, but with that said, it hasn’t been real warm yet as we know.  With that said, the chance for us to bust out the shovels yet again will be there from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.  This could change depending on the track so stay tuned.

The dip in the Jetstream will supply the storm with cold air.  Here’s how it may look Tuesday evening.  We will be under the gun for rain and possibly thunder as the Dakotas will be receiving snow.  The colder air will affect us on Wednesday.

It is still way to early to talk totals as late and early season snowfalls are difficult to pin down due to so many factors working against it.  As it looks now though, the air will be cold enough to support snow.  Stay tuned for the latest on a very active weather week!

Posted under winter, winter weather

If all goes to plan and snow accumulates as expected Monday morning, this will be the 7th consecutive Monday with accumulating snow in Rochester, MN – a stretch which started on February 4th.

There are a wide variety of headlines across the region, from Winter Weather Advisory to Blizzard Warning to Winter Storm Warning. For just about everyone under headlines, the biggest impacting factor will be strong winds causing blowing snow, low visibility, and snow/ice-packed roadways.

Here is what we have locally, these are in effect for all of Monday, but for many of us, snow won’t get started until between 4-7am.

Snowfall amounts don’t look to be significant with this storm system, but winds in the mid to late afternoon gusting to 35mph or higher in places will make for low visibility and poor travel conditions.

Strong, cold winds behind this storm system will make for near-blizzard to blizzard conditions across much of Minnesota and portions of Iowa by Monday afternoon.

Posted under winter weather

Heavy snow continues to push north out of Iowa.  Colder air is now starting to infiltrate the system helping the wintry mix of rain/sleet/ and snow that northern Iowa was seeing change over to snow.  Temperature is key in a storm like this.  there has to be enough cold air to counter the warm air sending the moisture north.  Off to the west, we have a nice stream of cooler air filtering in.  Once the 20s and some cooler air, we will be able to make very efficient snow which will accumulate quickly.

Earlier warm air was keeping things rain in Cresco Iowa.  We are seeing signs though that the cold air is starting to take over.  Winds will also be an issue. We’re not talking blizzard conditions by any means but a 20-30 mph wind with heavy snow is nothing to take lightly.  Since the snow is heavier it will be a bit hard to blow and drift,but nonetheless we are expecting this to help reduce visibilities.

 And now what everyone has been waiting for. The latest snowfall forecast.  here’s the latest update.  Not much has changed over the course of today,but the heaviest snow axis has shifted a bit west.  the heaviest will fall from now until daybreak Monday.  Snow rates will approach if not exceed 1″ per hour for the next several hours.  The snow will literally come down in buckets in spots.  These totals include what has already fallen around the area.

Prior to the snow, the area received a ton of rain.  Here are a few totals from around the area from the past 48 hours.  This will include some of the liquid equivalent of the snow that has fallen tonight.

Send any photos to weather@kttc.com

Posted under Uncategorized, weather, winter weather

We’ve been having weather Deja Vu recently as active weather continues to visit the Upper Midwest.  Last week we were talking heavy snow, this week, heavy rain.  Heavy rain will be the main threat as much of this rain will run off into creeks and streams thanks to the frozen ground and thick snow pack.  Of other concern with the heavy rain,  storm drains may be covered from the rounds of snow we have received lately.

Heavy rain won’t be the only issue over the weekend.  We could see everything from freezing rain, rain, sleet, and snow.  We will break those precip types down in order of appearance.

Freezing rain will be possible late Friday night through early Saturday morning.  The thing with this is that air temperatures will probably be above freezing, but ground surfaces will likely be below freezing.  The rain falling initially will have a chance to freeze on contact creating icy spots on roads and sidewalks.  Good news with this is that we aren’t expecting widespread effects from any icing.  Any ice that does accumulate, and it will be minimal at best, will melt quickly as warmer air surges north.  Do use caution traveling at late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

That warmer air will cause the precip to remain as mainly rain for the remainder of Saturday and the 1st half of the overnight.  As mentioned above, we could see some localized flooding thanks to runoff.  Ice jamming may also be a possibly a on area rivers so be on the lookout this weekend.  In spots, up to or an exceeding an inch of rain is likely.  This rain could be heavy at times and we may even hear a rumble of thunder or two.  Here is our current rain Futurecast run.

With all of this moisture, dense fog will also be possible over the weekend.  Early Sunday morning, colder air will enter the storm and that will cause the rain to change over to some sleet and eventually snow.  The snow could provide us the chance to have to shovel a little bit.

The track of this system is being watched closely.  If colder air gets into the system earlier, this forecast will change.  We will pin down the snow side of things over the weekend.  Here’s a general look at what could happen early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  At this time, 1-3″ of snow looks possible from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

This is a complex messy storm.  We will have the latest over the weekend on the NewCenter.

Posted under weather, winter weather

We’re still expecting snow to fall tonight, heavily at times, with its biggest impact on Tuesday morning’s commute along with – hopefully – your snowblower’s auger.

Timing: We’ll begin to see light accumulations of snow late this evening, but the heavier accumulations will take place between 4am and 9am Tuesday as the storm becomes more focused and organized.

How much? Here’s my best shot as of 8:30pm Monday evening.

You’ve seen higher snowfall total forecasts though, haven’t you? If there is going to be more than this, there will need to be a very tight focus in this storm early Tuesday and snowfall intensities would have to turn fairly extreme, which is possible, but I’m not seeing that right now. Can we hope? Sure, but I’m skeptical. If this storm does ramp up enough for a foot of snow, we’ll likely hear thunder, which is always fun in a snowstorm.

Snow will lighten up early in the afternoon and will be ending in the late afternoon, but gusty winds will throw snow around into the evening, so road conditions will likely remain poor in places through most of the day.

Posted under winter weather

Here we ago again! A couple of weeks removed from the biggest snow storm we have seen in the last two Winters and we are already talking about a storm that has the potential to one up that.  First to get you up to speed, here’s where we stand so far for the entire Winter.  We are sitting about 9″ below in the snowfall department, but we will have a chance to make most of, if not all of it up with this next Winter Storm.

Now on to the storm.  It will likely come in two distinct waves.  The first overnight and into late Tuesday morning with second push of moderate to heavy snow falling from Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon.  In between, during Monday afternoon, lighter snow will persist with a few breaks.  We could have a couple of inches on the ground by the morning commute, especially in Austin, Albert Lea and surrounding areas.  A general 2-4″ can be expected by Monday evening with the initial burst of moderate to heavy snow.  The better chance for the significant accumulation will come with the second push.  Below is how the storm will likely play out.

Above is the first band of snow moving in overnight that could cause a slippery morning commute.  After this initial band moves through, the snow is expected to become lighter for the time being until it picks up again later in the evening.

The second burst of moderate to heavy is snow is likely where we will pick up most of our accumulation.  Monday night is when we will likely see the heaviest snow.  The snow is expected to shut off by the late afternoon on Tuesday.  This will be a long duration snow event with two distinct snow episodes.  Here is the latest.  Isolated higher amounts could be possible in the purple outline.

A change in the track could have big impacts on the forecast.  Stay with KTTC for the latest.

Posted under climate, snowfall amounts, winter, winter weather

It has been a long time since we have talked about something being above average other than the temperature.  The February of 2013 is changing that though.  Through February so far we have had 15″ of snow fall at the Rochester International Airport.  That was jump started by day after day after day of Clippers to start the month and then recently with the biggest snowstorm we have had in the last two winters.  Climatologically speaking,  February is the least snowy of the snowy months, but during the Winter of 12/13 it has been the snowiest.  Not only has it been the snowiest this Winter, we have actually cracked the top 10 snowiest for the month of February.  Here’s the list of five through ten.

In the coming days we will have a chance to climb up this list a little higher.  We are watching a large system that will feature the heaviest snow staying well to the south and east of our area, but come Tuesday and Wednesday, we will have a chance to be scraped by this system.

This is how the storm will look on Monday evening.  This system will likely bring a full blown Blizzard to parts of the plain states.  The track again will stay away from us, most likely putting Chicago in the bulls eye after slamming portions of Kansas and Missouri with over a foot of snow.  Our chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday and the intensity will be MUCH lighter.  With that said, a jog in the track northward would change things drastically so we are still monitoring the track of this one.

February has definitely brought active weather back to Minnesota.  Hopefully this stretch will continue to help replenish area streams and rivers.  The recent liquid will help somewhat to do that, but we need this active weather to continue into spring to help put a dent in the drought since the ground is still frozen.  Fingers crossed, but definitely a positive sign going forward!

Posted under climate, Drought, history, minnesota, Records, weather, winter, winter weather

It’s just about 3:30 in the morning and a lot of places around the area have in between 3-4 inches of snow with some spots a bit higher than that.  Here are some of the latest storm totals we have

McIntire, IA — 4.5″

Winona — 4″

KTTC Studios (NW Rochester) –3.5″

Downtown Rochester (St. Marys) — 3.0″”

Wabasha — 3.2″

La Crosse, WI — 3.0

A few heavier bands of snow were still found on radar.  Be on the lookout for heavier bursts of snow.  Most area roadways are snow covered with several inches of snow this morning.  For the latest forecasts and school closings, check in with NewsCenter today at 5:30

Posted under Snow Totals, snowfall amounts, winter weather

We’ve been talking for a while now about the chance to get a “nice” snowstorm by the end of the work week.  As it stands now the area will be affected by a large storm that will contain all snow for a change.  Some other details such as accumulation range are a bit hazy because of the environment the eventual surface low will track.  I’m going to break down the things we are watching as things start to come together in the next couple of days.

First off we are going to take a look at the storm itself.  Yep, you are looking at her.  This dip, outlined by the blue arrows is the key for everything coming together.  The Water Vapor Imagery shows us how much moisture is in the mid levels of the atmosphere, and with that, we can see how the atmosphere is moving.  The dip, meaning there is a pocket of cold air a loft in the atmosphere, will move down the west coast of the United States.   (The land mass directly above the “U” shape is Alaska.)

Wednesday, a Surface low will develop in the four corners region of the United States.  The next few graphics will show how the storm will evolve by the end of the week.  Southern Minnesota and north Iowa will likely see a brief period of heavy snow initially Thursday evening that could last into early Friday morning.  Snow has the chance to continue to fall into early Saturday morning.  The snow, however will be much lighter going forward with the event, and the heaviest snow should fall as the storm starts on Thursday.  We will take a look at why this will happen after the sequence of graphics.

Notice the center of low pressure doesn’t move much from Thursday night to Friday night.  That is because, the atmosphere is in a blocking pattern so the pipeline will be clogged up.  That will in turn make a long duration snow event, but it will also tend to give us lighter precip during the event since the storm will be battling a ridge of high pressure that is blocking things up.  A change in this pattern could cause significant changes to the storm and therefore the forecast over the next couple of days.   The picture below shows the dip that is currently (as of 2/17) near Alaska, now in the four corners and heading towards a ridge of high pressure.  That ridge will act to weaken the low a little bit, but also cause it to stall close to the area, keeping us in the light snow for a long period of time.

As things become a little more clear, we will fine tune tune the details!

Posted under winter, winter weather