The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its latest update for this year’s hurricane outlook and things still look to be quite active in the Atlantic basin in the next few months.  Of more interest to us locally is the mention of a possible “La Nina” impact on the hurricane outlook.  If La Nina does become more pronounced in the next few months, not only will there be less vertical wind shear in the tropics to encourage hurricane development, but our upcoming winter here in the Midwest is certainly going to be affected.  In the latest Climate Prediction Center analysis there was some evidence that suggests we may be dealing with a moderate to strong La Nina phase this fall and winter which could mean a warm fall followed by colder than normal temperatures over the winter months.  It’s too early right now to make snowfall predictions, but it seems very possible that we could be facing a snowier period from December through March if the Climate Prediction Center’s long range forecast pans out, so you may want to wax up your skis and tune up the snow blower…just in case.  Below are the latest NOAA hurricane outlook statement and the preliminary outlook for this upcoming winter from the Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

 “August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):

• 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
•  8 to 12 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
•  4 to 6 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.

“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”

Winter Outlook:

Climate Prediction Center temperature probabilities for this winter

Climate Prediction Center precipitation probabilities for this winter

Posted under Tropical weather, winter

Some stats from this past meteorological winter (December 1st-February 28th) in Rochester, MN…(source)

• 5th greatest snowfall total ever: 44.4″–ranks behind the winters of 2000-01: 50.0″, 1969-70: 48.1″, 2008-09: 46.4″, and 1996-97: 45.8″
• 1st place: Tied for greatest average snow depth with 14″–this ties the average snow depth for the winter of 1978-79
• 11th place: We’re still running consecutive days without hitting 40°. If we don’t hit 40° today (Wednesday, March 3rd), it’ll be the 92nd consecutive day without reaching 40°…it’s been since December 1st when the high was 48°

Posted under climate, winter

-Rochester has received 51.9″ of snow so far this season. The seasonal average is 52.7″, so we’ve just about reached our quota.

-There has been an inch or more snow on the ground in Rochester for 75 consecutive days. The most consecutive days with an inch or more is 133, back in the winters of 1978-79 and 1950-51

-From December 21st through February 16th, there have been 10″ or more snow on the ground for 58 consecutive days (and counting)….which, by my tentative, unofficial count, puts this current stretch in the #3 spot for most consecutive days with 10″ or more snow on the ground. #1 is 66 days from January 12th, 1979-March 18th, 1979 and #2 is 64 days from December 23rd 1969-February 24th, 1970

-Just 13.6″ more snow this winter at the Rochester airport and we’re in the top 10 for highest seasonal snowfall

-12 more days left in meteorological winter

-31 days until the Spring Equinox

Posted under winter

Thanks to everyone for sending in their pictures of the hoar frost. We’ve definitely seen a ton the past few days - lots of photo opp’s! A reminder that you can also find many, many more pictures with iSubmit on KTTC.com, also on our KTTC Precision Forecast Facebook page!

As far as why it’s called hoar frost…I did some research and it’s not as bad as what it sounds. The term “hoar” goes back to Old English, (the word “har” meaning “gray, venerable, old” – from Dictionary.com). In German, “Herr” refers to a title of respect (also Dictionary.com). Finally, “Of frost, it is recorded in O.E. (hoar-frost is c.1290), expressing the resemblance of the white feathers of frost to an old man’s beard” (Dictionary.com).

From what I found, “hoar” can be used as both a noun and an adjective. In the noun form, it refers to frost, or rime. You may know the word “hoary” refers to something that’s gray or white with age. Hope that clears up our funny sounding word.

Posted under KTTC, winter

Today kicks off Winter Weather Awareness week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The following information is being distributed, over the course of this week, by the National Weather Service.

Today’s nugget of information is the explanation of headlines used for winter weather events to keep people informed of pending or occurring winter storms.

Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO)

The Hazardous Weather Outlook includes any potential weather hazard out to seven (7) days. It is used for planning purposes and will include a short description of what the weather threat is, when it is expected, and how much it may impact the region. The HWO is issued daily around 5:00 AM, and updated during the day as needed. It is also broadcast on NOAA Weather Radio near the top and bottom of every hour.

Winter Storm Watch (WSW)

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is a potential for a winter storm to affect the region during the next 1 to 3 days. It does not always mean the area will be hit by a winter storm, but there is still some uncertainity of the exact path or timing of the event. This is a planning stage. Use this time to ensure you have supplies at home, like some extra food, medications, baby items, etc.. If travel is planned, check ahead and see if a different route or delaying your departure may make your trip safer. Be alert for changing weather conditions.

Winter Weather Advisory (WSW)

Advisories are issued for those winter weather events that are expected to be more of an inconvenience and should not become life-threatening if caution is exercised. These are often issued for 3 to 6 inches of snow, blowing and drifting snow, freezing drizzle, or a combination of these elements. It may be issued for less snow for early season events, when drivers may not be accustomed to slick roads.

Winter Storm Warning (WSW)

Winter Storm Warnings are usually issued when dangerous winter weather is expected, occurring, or imminent. The weather can become life-threatening. Criteria includes snowfalls of 6 inches or more in 12 hours, 8 inches in 24 hours, or lower amounts if accompanied by strong winds or a combination of dangerous winter elements. Avoid unnecessary travel.

Blizzard Warnings (BZW)

The most dangerous winter event is certainly the blizzard. Blizzard Warnings are issued when snow or blowing snow lowers visibilities to a 1/4 mile or less, wind gusts hit 35 mph or higher, and the storm lasts for 3 hours or more. Travel is dangerous and should be avoided if possible.

Ice Storm Warning (WSW)

Ice storm Warnings are issued when freezing rain will cause widespread glazing. A coating of ice is expected to reach 1/4 inch thick or more on objects and make travel nearly impossible. For lesser amounts of ice, usually a winter weather advisory would be used, but even a thin glaze of ice can make travel difficult. Avoid travel.

Wind Chill Warning (NPW)

Issued when wind chills of -35 F or lower are expected with wind speeds of 10 mph or more. A wind chill advisory is issued for values between -20 and -34 F. Dress warmly and cover as much exposed skin as possible.

Here is the source for the preceding information.

Posted under winter, winter weather

Our local climate guru at the NWS office in La Crosse, Jeff Boyne, summarized the outlook for the coming winter.

He summarizes the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the coming winter, but also brings in some excellent data correllations and introduces some “wild cards” that could work against the official CPC/NOAA outlook for our region.

If you are at all curious what the outlook is for the coming winter and want the opinion of a local expert, I highly recommend you check it out!

Posted under climate, winter

I so incredibly wish I were making this up, but I’m not. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect from Sunday night into Sunday afternoon for a good chunk of our area. This includes the Albert Lea, Fairmont, Clarion, Owatonna, Faribault, Cannon Falls areas, and points north and west (yes, the Twin Cities, too).

Light snow will spread into the area from west to east overnight, and is expected to continue to fall through the morning hours into the early afternoon. Temperatures will be cool enough for snow formation, but even in southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa, there’s enough warmer air hanging around nearby where we could easily see this morph into a rain/snow/slushy mix.

1-3″ of accumulating snow will be possible in the advisory area. But, here’s my digression about snowfalls this time of the year: 1) it won’t stick and 2) it will have a hard time sticking to the ground and especially well-traveled surfaces. Our ground is still way too warm to give any flakes that hit the ground a sufficient chances to stick around and pile up.

Now that you’re breathing calmly again, this is still our first bona fide snow threat for the season. Is it wacky? Yes, but not out of the question. Rochester typically sees its first snowfall of the year around the middle of the month. The earliest snowfall (Trace) fell back on September 14th in 1961. The earliest half inch fell October 1st in 1999. The earliest over 2″ whopper (3.9″) fell on October 6th in 1982.

Stay tuned to the NewsCenter tonight at 5 and also after the game. We’ll keep you updated on our Facebook page, too! Bottom line: don’t panic, but do expect to take some extra time driving around Monday.

Posted under KTTC, winter, winter weather

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for southern Minnesota and a good chunk of Iowa. For the latest counties and their headlines, check out our KTTC Weather Page if you haven’t already. With the uncertainties in storm track this far out, it doesn’t make too much sense for us to forecast snowfall total ranges, but it is looking that we’ll receive a band of 6″ of snow or more across the area. So, for those of you with weekend travel plans, you’re going to want to watch the forecast closely for the next few days.

From today’s perspective, Saturday will deliver rain and possibly a bit of snow, but accumulating snow looks to be getting underway Saturday night and lasting through Sunday morning.

The National Weather Service out of La Crosse has put together a great synopsis of big, April snow events. Check out some of our April snowfall statistics for Rochester here.

We’re also about to unleash a new feature to our website in time for this weekend’s storm. Precision Stormtracker, an interactive radar tool utilizing the power of Microsoft’s Virtual Earth will be available here at kttc.com. I’m sure you’ll enjoy it.

More to come!

Posted under winter, winter weather

6:00 p.m. update: So long, snow and ice! All warnings have been canceled. We are all advisory and warning-free. All together now: hooray!

4:00 p.m. update: All of the Winter Weather Advisories have been canceled. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect, as of right now, until 7 p.m.. I wouldn’t be surprised to see those canceled earlier, too, as the precipitation is wrapping up fairly quickly.

2:30 p.m. update: Winter Weather Advisories are being chopped back, especially along and west of the I-35 area.

Still waiting for some snowfall totals; icing seems to be the bigger issue with this storm. Some spots have reported anywhere from a tenth to half an inch of ice. If you tuned in last night, we talked about the possibility of snowfall totals being less because of sleet or freezing rain mixing in. That has by far been the case with this storm.

2:00 p.m. update: Winter Storm Warnings have replaced some of the Winter Weather Advisories around the region. Snow, sleet, freezing rain and icing have been reported around the area.

This storm is wrapping up for folks furthest west; the eastern portion of the area (roughly from an I-35 line and east) will see precip for the rest of the afternoon.

I’m working on getting some snowfall/icing totals. More to come.

Posted under KTTC, winter, winter weather

9:00 a.m. Sunday update: Precipitation has begun to move into the region; light snow is falling for some of the western portion of the area, around Albert Lea and such. The Winter Weather Advisory stands; look for 3-5″ by the afternoon.

There’s still a good chance we’ll be seeing a mixed bag of precipitation, including sleet and some freezing rain. The longer that lasts, the less snowtotals  we’ll see. This will especially be true right along the MN/IA border and for north Iowa.

Be safe on those roads today!

9:00 p.m. update: Several counties in northeastern Iowa have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory. Of Note: I wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning overnight. Some of the newest data coming in, combined with data throughout the day, suggests some spots could pick up over 6″. To be honest, it’s the ‘where’ that we don’t quite have pinned down yet, and is always the toughest to pin down. Stay tuned!

Earlier updates…A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the brown shaded counties from Sunday morning to Sunday PM. We’re looking at snow developing by Sunday morning, with the bulk of it falling during the morning hours (especially further west you are).

It’ll wrap up by the afternoon hours, but it’ll be a quick hit – we’re looking at the possibility of 3-5″ in the Advisory area. 1-3″ will be possible elsewhere. Considering we’re hovering near the freezing point, I’m a bit concerned about the amount of sleet that will be thrown in there, which could cut down our snow totals.

For folks further south – look for more of a goulash event. Sleet, some snow, maybe some showers/sprinkles. We’ll be keeping tabs on it. Regardless, tomorrow will be a bit of a mess. Stay tuned!

Posted under KTTC, winter, winter weather