The storm system to our west that looks to bring some unsettled, stormier weather to our area this weekend is also going to pull in some warmer and eventually more humid weather for us.  Of course, that humidity will prime the atmosphere for those rain chances while it keeps the summer-like feel in the air that we’ve been experiencing all week long.  We’re expecting some showers and thunderstorms late this evening and tonight and those look to stick around for much of Friday.  The entire weekend won’t be a washout, but there will be some shower chances each day with this upcoming storm system.  Look for morning showers Saturday with a fair amount of sunshine still around to warm us into the lower 80s.  We’ll have more widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.  It’s too early to tell if there will be severe weather this weekend, but right now the best chance looks to be later in the day Sunday into early Monday.  Rain chances with this storm system look to linger into Wednesday with temperatures slowly falling to the lower and mid 70s which is a bit closer to what we normally expect this time of the year.  If you’re heading up north, here’s a look at your weekend getaway forecast:

It’ll be a comfrotable, but unsettled weather picture in northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this weekend.

Posted under weather

For the first time this year we’re basking in the warmth of 60 degree heat across the area thanks to the passage of a warm front through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  This surge of warmer air is associated with a change in the upper level wind pattern, or jet stream, that is now buckling northward, working to bottle up the cold, Canadian air that has been around here for ages north of the border for a change.  The weekend will feature bright sunshine and high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s across our area which is a little warmer than normal for a change. 

The jet stream is beginning to lift tio the north, allowing warmer air to blow into the region.

The jet stream over the weekend will be well north of our area. Warm, May-like weather will dominate the scene.

A slow moving storm system will move in from the west early next week, bringing some scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to the region while temperatures remain fairly mild for Monday and Tuesday.  By midweek, the jet stream will buckle back southward as an upper level low develops, setting the stage for a long stretch of potentially cool and showery weather that may last from Wednesday through the following weekend.  While it may not rain the whole time, there looks to be a chance for shower activity and slightly cooler than normal weather for that period of time.

Cool, damp weather may move in for the second half of the upcoming week as the jet stream shifts south for a while. Not unusual at all for May, however.

Posted under weather

The rain wasn’t much Saturday morning and afternoon, but combine that with the ongoing thaw and frozen ground and it has been enough to send some area rivers and streams into minor flood stage.  Be on the lookout for water rises on most area waterways and minor flooding, especially in the flood prone areas.  It is important to note that we are NOT looking at anything similar to the flooding of 2010 or 2007, but water is expected to rise to or remain in minor flood stage through Sunday afternoon/evening thanks to the snow melt/ice jamming.  Below you will find a few graphs of that contain flood stages and the forecasts for the rivers over the next several hours.

Posted under flooding, spring, weather

It has been an eventful Winter, especially during the back half with a top 10 snowiest February on record and the third snowiest March on record.  With all of the snow (23.5″) we’ve had in March, we have also had a ton of cold to go with it.   We have been below normal for much of the month and compared to the March of 2012, we aren’t even in the same universe.  In the breakdown below I’m using 40 degrees as the benchmark since we have not hit 40 degrees once this month.  Last March we were in 70s for several days including 2 days in the 80s.

During the second half of this week, temperatures will start to head toward the 40s.  We aren’t forecasting a major warm up by any means, but the 40s will sure seem nice, especially after the cold March thus far. The Jetstream will be driving this warm-up.  The Jetstream is the river of air where the jet airlines fly and divides the cold air from the warm air.  When the Jetstream dives south of us, like it has been over the last month or so, we are colder.  The opposite is true when it takes a trip up to Canada.  This week we will be on both sides of the Jetstream and thus the first few days of this week will be cold and the second, a little warmer.  The colors in the map below represent wind speed.  The darker the color, the stronger wind.  Because of this strong jet, there is a powerful winter storm affecting the southern plains and mid Atlantic states.  I think it did us a good for a change that we missed out on this one.

For the latest 7 day forecast as we track the first signs of Spring temperature wise check out kttc.com/weather

Posted under Cold, weather

Heavy snow continues to push north out of Iowa.  Colder air is now starting to infiltrate the system helping the wintry mix of rain/sleet/ and snow that northern Iowa was seeing change over to snow.  Temperature is key in a storm like this.  there has to be enough cold air to counter the warm air sending the moisture north.  Off to the west, we have a nice stream of cooler air filtering in.  Once the 20s and some cooler air, we will be able to make very efficient snow which will accumulate quickly.

Earlier warm air was keeping things rain in Cresco Iowa.  We are seeing signs though that the cold air is starting to take over.  Winds will also be an issue. We’re not talking blizzard conditions by any means but a 20-30 mph wind with heavy snow is nothing to take lightly.  Since the snow is heavier it will be a bit hard to blow and drift,but nonetheless we are expecting this to help reduce visibilities.

 And now what everyone has been waiting for. The latest snowfall forecast.  here’s the latest update.  Not much has changed over the course of today,but the heaviest snow axis has shifted a bit west.  the heaviest will fall from now until daybreak Monday.  Snow rates will approach if not exceed 1″ per hour for the next several hours.  The snow will literally come down in buckets in spots.  These totals include what has already fallen around the area.

Prior to the snow, the area received a ton of rain.  Here are a few totals from around the area from the past 48 hours.  This will include some of the liquid equivalent of the snow that has fallen tonight.

Send any photos to weather@kttc.com

Posted under Uncategorized, weather, winter weather

We’ve been having weather Deja Vu recently as active weather continues to visit the Upper Midwest.  Last week we were talking heavy snow, this week, heavy rain.  Heavy rain will be the main threat as much of this rain will run off into creeks and streams thanks to the frozen ground and thick snow pack.  Of other concern with the heavy rain,  storm drains may be covered from the rounds of snow we have received lately.

Heavy rain won’t be the only issue over the weekend.  We could see everything from freezing rain, rain, sleet, and snow.  We will break those precip types down in order of appearance.

Freezing rain will be possible late Friday night through early Saturday morning.  The thing with this is that air temperatures will probably be above freezing, but ground surfaces will likely be below freezing.  The rain falling initially will have a chance to freeze on contact creating icy spots on roads and sidewalks.  Good news with this is that we aren’t expecting widespread effects from any icing.  Any ice that does accumulate, and it will be minimal at best, will melt quickly as warmer air surges north.  Do use caution traveling at late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

That warmer air will cause the precip to remain as mainly rain for the remainder of Saturday and the 1st half of the overnight.  As mentioned above, we could see some localized flooding thanks to runoff.  Ice jamming may also be a possibly a on area rivers so be on the lookout this weekend.  In spots, up to or an exceeding an inch of rain is likely.  This rain could be heavy at times and we may even hear a rumble of thunder or two.  Here is our current rain Futurecast run.

With all of this moisture, dense fog will also be possible over the weekend.  Early Sunday morning, colder air will enter the storm and that will cause the rain to change over to some sleet and eventually snow.  The snow could provide us the chance to have to shovel a little bit.

The track of this system is being watched closely.  If colder air gets into the system earlier, this forecast will change.  We will pin down the snow side of things over the weekend.  Here’s a general look at what could happen early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  At this time, 1-3″ of snow looks possible from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

This is a complex messy storm.  We will have the latest over the weekend on the NewCenter.

Posted under weather, winter weather

It has been a long time since we have talked about something being above average other than the temperature.  The February of 2013 is changing that though.  Through February so far we have had 15″ of snow fall at the Rochester International Airport.  That was jump started by day after day after day of Clippers to start the month and then recently with the biggest snowstorm we have had in the last two winters.  Climatologically speaking,  February is the least snowy of the snowy months, but during the Winter of 12/13 it has been the snowiest.  Not only has it been the snowiest this Winter, we have actually cracked the top 10 snowiest for the month of February.  Here’s the list of five through ten.

In the coming days we will have a chance to climb up this list a little higher.  We are watching a large system that will feature the heaviest snow staying well to the south and east of our area, but come Tuesday and Wednesday, we will have a chance to be scraped by this system.

This is how the storm will look on Monday evening.  This system will likely bring a full blown Blizzard to parts of the plain states.  The track again will stay away from us, most likely putting Chicago in the bulls eye after slamming portions of Kansas and Missouri with over a foot of snow.  Our chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday and the intensity will be MUCH lighter.  With that said, a jog in the track northward would change things drastically so we are still monitoring the track of this one.

February has definitely brought active weather back to Minnesota.  Hopefully this stretch will continue to help replenish area streams and rivers.  The recent liquid will help somewhat to do that, but we need this active weather to continue into spring to help put a dent in the drought since the ground is still frozen.  Fingers crossed, but definitely a positive sign going forward!

Posted under climate, Drought, history, minnesota, Records, weather, winter, winter weather

The snow from the afternoon officially gave Rochester (Where official climatology numbers are kept for the area) more snow through the 5th of Feb than we had all of Last Winter.

 
Here are some totals from around the area from Tuesday (2/5)

IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE...
WAUKON                         1.0 IN    
LANSING 4SE                    0.4 IN    

...CHICKASAW...
NEW HAMPTON                    0.5 IN    
IONIA 2W                       T IN      

...CLAYTON...
MONONA WWTP                    0.5 IN    
GUTTENBERG DAM 10              0.4 IN    
VOLGA 1NE                      0.3 IN    
ELKADER 6SSW                   0.2 IN    
EDGEWOOD                       0.2 IN    

...FAYETTE...
CLERMONT                       0.4 IN    
FAYETTE                        T IN    

...FLOYD...
CHARLES CITY                   0.2 IN    

...HOWARD...
CRESCO 1NE                     0.6 IN    
ELMA                           T IN      

...MITCHELL...
ST ANSGAR                      0.2 IN    
OSAGE                          T IN      

...WINNESHIEK...
CALMAR                         0.5 IN    
4 S SATTRE                     T IN      

MINNESOTA

...DODGE...
MANTORVILLE                    3.5 IN    
2 ESE MANTORVILLE              1.0 IN    
KASSON                         0.5 IN    
2 SSE CLAREMONT                0.5 IN    
2 SSE CLAREMONT                0.5 IN    

...FILLMORE...
PETERSON 1S                    2.7 IN   
LANESBORO                      1.4 IN   
2 SSE PILOT MOUND              0.7 IN    

...HOUSTON...
RENO 3SW                       2.1 IN    
SPRING GROVE 4N                1.0 IN    
2 ENE WILMINGTON               0.2 IN    

...MOWER...
ELKTON                         1.5 IN    
AUSTIN                         1.2 IN    
GRAND MEADOW                   0.5 IN    
AUSTIN WASTE WATER TREATMENT F 0.4 IN   

...OLMSTED...
ROCHESTER                      2.5 IN    
ROCHESTER AP 2NE               2.3 IN    
PINE ISLAND 2S                 2.2 IN    
1 SE ROCHESTER                 2.0 IN    
ORONOCO                        1.8 IN   
BYRON 4 NORTH                  1.8 IN    
ELGIN 2SSW                     1.3 IN  

...WABASHA...
THEILMAN 1SSW                  3.5 IN    
MAZEPPA 5SE                    2.5 IN    
WABASHA                        1.2 IN   

...WINONA...
4 SW ELBA                      3.3 IN    
WINONA                         2.0 IN   
ALTURA 5W                      1.4 IN    
TREMPEALEAU DAM 6              1.0 IN    
LA CRESCENT DAM 7              1.0 IN   
MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5           0.5 IN  
GOODVIEW                       0.5 IN    
LEWISTON                       0.5 IN    
WINONA DAM 5A                  0.4 IN    

WISCONSIN

...ADAMS...
MONROE CENTER 1E               T IN     

...BUFFALO...
ALMA DAM 4                     0.5 IN    

...CLARK...
OWEN 2N                        0.3 IN    
NEILLSVILLE 3ESE               T IN      

...CRAWFORD...
LYNXVILLE DAM 9                0.5 IN    
STEUBEN 4SE                    0.5 IN    
DESOTO 1SE                     0.4 IN   
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN               0.4 IN   

...GRANT...
LANCASTER 4WSW                 0.4 IN   

...JACKSON...
HATFIELD DAM                   0.1 IN    
MATHER 3NW                     T IN    

...LA CROSSE...
LA CROSSE NWS                  1.7 IN    
LA CROSSE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT    1.5 IN    
LA CROSSE 4NNW                 0.5 IN    
2 NW ONALASKA                  0.4 IN

Posted under climate, Snow Totals, weather, winter, winter weather

We didn’t pick up any snow as an Arctic cold front sliced through the area on Saturday, but it sure made it’s presence felt in other ways.  Wind gusts around the area topped 50mph in a lot  of spots.   Here’s a look at a select few from Saturday afternoon/evening.

Behind a cold front temperatures drop, but with this Arctic cold front Saturday afternoon, temperatures fell off a cliff.  The highs made their way into the 40s early, and by the evening, the wind chills were in the teens below zero.  Here is a timeline as the temps dropped Saturday.

Arctic air will continue to pour into the area over the next several days.  The Upper Air Pattern shows the warmer air in the west indicated by the orange and yellows and the bitter cold coming out of Canada by the darker purples.  The “Polar Vortex” is in play this time around.  You can clearly see the closed doughnut hole in southern Canada which represents the center of it.  It usually hangs out in northern Canada, but has drifted south supplying the eastern two thirds of the country with Arctic air.  The coldest air in this part of the world is found under that Polar Vortex.

In my opinion this Arctic outbreak is extremely impressive.  We will likely see afternoon highs the coldest we have seen in over four years and we are doing it without snow on the ground.  Snow acts as a refrigerator and helps the atmosphere cool much faster when we have a good base on the ground.  We could be flirting with records if we had some snow.  While it is going to be extremely cold over the next week and especially over the next couple of days, it could be MUCH colder if we had some snow on the ground.

Here is just a list of where this cold stands in perspective with the record for the day and the record all time.  It was pretty chilly back in the 1800s!  While we won’t be as cold as the temperatures with the actual air temperature, wind chills Monday and Tuesday morning could be in that ball park!  Stay warm.  It only takes 30 min or so to get frostbite with exposed skin with these dangerous wind chills!

Posted under just cool, weather, wind, wind chill, winter

We’re in for quite a roller coaster ride in our local weather over the next few days as unseasonably warm air and then an arctic blast will make their way into our weather picture.  Strangely enough, we start things off with a very quiet, typical mid January day today with a slight breeze, some sunshine, and high temperatures in the 20s.  After this, however, it’ll be far from typical January weather for a couple of days as a storm system north of us kicks up some strong southwest winds during the day and with abundant sunshine, works to pull in some really mild air.  High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 40s which will be closer to a record high than the seasonably cold 20s that would be closer to average.  There will be some snow showers or flurries early in the days as the warm front moves through and then again Saturday as a potent cold front approaches from the northwest behind that storm system.   Saturday will be windy and warmer than normal to start before the arctic air blows in during the afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will drop like a rock in the evening Saturday and then not recorver much Sunday with more snow showers possible.  The coldest air from northern Canada will linger through Monday and Tuesday before warmer, more seasonable weather returns for the middle of the upcoming week.

Temperatures will begin their climb early Friday and then drop off dramatically late Saturday.

Posted under Cold, weather