The large storm system that has been keeping things unsettled and stormy for us and really the entire Midwest continues to edge its way eastward toward us, keeping things breezy, humid, and a little damp today.  In the wake of Sunday night’s severe storms that produced heavy rain and strong winds, there are still a number of Flood Warnings in effect for today and even some that won’t expire for a couple of additional days while severe weather remains a concern for us in the short term.  Look for occasional sunshine today that may work to destabilize the atmosphere, settting the stage for some strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.  Right now the biggest concern appears to be damaging wind gusts that may topple or completely uproot trees.  We’ll also have to keep an eye on rainfall amounts as soils are very soggy and can’t hold much more if any additional moisture.  The rainfall from today’s showers doesn’t appear to be as heavy as Sunday’s but even a small dose now would make things worse, so the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the eastern part of our viewing area.  There is also a marginal tornado threat and of course a chance for some hail in some of the stronger storms.

A look at some of the highest rainfall amounts across the area. Rochester received 2.07″ officially Sunday, a record for the date.

The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook places the eastern half of our area in the slight risk category for severe storms today and tonight.

Posted under severe weather, Uncategorized

You don’t need me to tell you that it has been downright cold to start 2013.  It looks though we will head right into Summer, at least in the short term.  To date we have not seen the 80s yet.  Last year at this time we had already seen them 3 times. That may not seem like that remarkable of a stat, but two of those 80s came in that crazy March last year.  What I’m trying to get at is that we have a chance on Tuesday to add a tally in the 80s column, maybe even the 90s column.  We will switch from an abnormally  cool airmass from over the weekend to an abnormally warm one for the month of May.  Quite frankly we could get close to records.  The record for Rochester on Tuesday in 94 set back in 2007.  That number is in realm of possibilities, but the stars would have to align as much as they possibly could to for that record to fall.  The more likely number will be the upper 80s with a few spots jumping into the lower 90s on Tuesday.

Air masses will change this week. 

The heat won’t last long though.  The 70s will stick with us for the next several days after Tuesday.  Those numbers are still above average for this time of the year.  For the latest on the warm up check kttc.com/weather.

Posted under Uncategorized

Spring has only been here for a couple of days, but it’s already going to take a vacation from the region.  Temperatures will stay mild through Tuesday, but we will introduce the chance for showers and storms with the continued warmth.  Depending upon how fast/slow a cold front moves through on Tuesday will determine if those thunderstorms will be strong.  The later on in the day it comes, the better chance we will have to see strong thunderstorms.

Behind that cold front is when we will feel MUCH different from where we have been over the last couple of days.  Below is the upper air pattern.  This shows us how the atmosphere is behaving.  The colors represent temperatures of air masses as they move about the country.  The “warmer” colors represent the warm air while the “cooler” colors represent the cooler air.

This “dip” in the picture above represents the cooler air spilling in from Canada.  By Wednesday, it will feel much different.  As this is happening, another system off of the east coast will act to block the system that will be affecting us.  That means this cool and wet weather will stick around until another system comes around and gets the atmospheric flow going again.

This is a very unseasonably cool air mass that will be paying us a visit over about the next week or so.  By the time Wednesday afternoon rolls around, it may be cold enough for sleet and snow to mix in, if not change over completely.  The stars have to align in order to get snow in May, but it is definitely possible and some of the things that need to come together may be doing so in the coming days.  This is being watched closely.  Here are a few May snow stats in case you are wondering.  It pains me to have to post these.

For the latest on the thunderstorm chances, the major cool down, and the chance for snow, keep up to date with the seven day forecast on KTTC.COM/Weather

Posted under Uncategorized

We have still not seen a temperature reading of 60 degrees or higher in Rochester, although to spoil the ending of this post we could be heading in that direction by next weeks end.  Before that though, we have to battle more Winter-like weather with well below average temperatures and more chances of snow.  So what has limited the Spring weather?  The jetstream.

Really everything weather is driven by this river of air up where the jet airliners fly.  It is the dividing line between the warm and cold air in the northern hemisphere.  Pretty much for the second half of Winter and the first month of Spring, the jetstream has been on an extended vacation down south, allowing cool Canadian air to spill into the Upper Midwest quite frequently.  This pattern is also a rather active one, which is also why we had the 3rd snowiest March and the 10th snowiest February on record and continue to see frequent storms roll through in April.

At least for the first portion of this week, the pattern will remain like it has for the last several months, and that only means one thing.  The chance for snow will also be there.  A storm system will slide up from our south and tap into some  colder air that will be hanging out in the Upper Midwest.  After the potential for another soaking rain over the next several days which could give parts of the area 1-2″ of liquid, we will see the flakes start to fall once again.  We could see some accumulation from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  With all Winter storms, what we get is HIGHLY dependent on the track. The same will hold true with any potential snow in the coming days.

Hopefully after this latest round of cool weather and potential snow, we can be done with Winter once and for all.  There are signs in the week ahead that 50s and 60s might pay us a visit.

For the latest 7 day forecast and updates on a wild start to the work week check out KTTC.COM

Posted under Uncategorized

It certainly has been a cool and wet first half of April with temperatures running about eleven degrees below normal on average and rainfall amounts approaching triple the normal value in Rochester as of the midpoint in the month.  The official rainfall total in the Med City has been 3.89 inches, which is 2.42 inches of moisture above normal to date and from the look of things, we have quite a bit more on the way for the latter part of this week.  We’re enjoying the most pleasant part of the week right now with sunshine and light winds making for a decent Tuesday afternoon, but after this it will be all down hill for the next few days thanks to a large, messy storm system that, just like last week, looks to bring heavy rain and then some accumulating snow to the region.   Expect rain to develop in the middle of our Wednesday with some heavy downpours and thunderstorms Wednesday evening.  We’ll keep the cool, blustery theme going Thursday with light rain that will eventually transition to a rain and snow mixture late in the day before becoming all snow Thursday night.  Nothing is set in stone yet, but there is the potential that many of us may have to dig out of a coating of five or six inches of snow Friday morning on the back side of this storm system.  There’s also a chance that it will be wetter snow and not as deep, so there are many possibilities ahead of us as that part of the system is a few days away.

An inch or two of rain may fall by early Thursday as shown on our FutureCast. Some spots may receive as much as three inches causing some localized flooding.

Heavy rain and the possibility of heavy snow melt/runoff may cause flooding in some spots this week. A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for much of the local area.

Posted under Uncategorized

From our friends at NWS La Crosse…

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
434 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA REACHES 50 DEGREES FOR FIRST TIME IN 2013...

THE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL 
AIRPORT REACHED 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2013. 
TYPICALLY...THIS TEMPERATURE BENCHMARK OCCURS AROUND MARCH 10TH. 
THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY 6 OTHER YEARS SINCE 1886 THAT THE FIRST 50 
DEGREE OCCURRENCE HAS BEEN THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR YEAR. THE TABLE 
BELOW CONTAINS THE TOP 12 LATEST DATES FOR ROCHESTER/S FIRST 50 
DEGREE TEMPERATURE OR GREATER.

       ROCHESTER MN LATEST DATES FOR 
        FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE 
                OR GREATER

            LATEST DATE OF FIRST
            50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
   RANK          OR GREATER            YEAR
   ----     ---------------------      ----
     1            APRIL 13             1975
     2            APRIL 12             1979
     3            APRIL 9              1965
     4            APRIL 7              1970
     5            APRIL 5              1951
                  APRIL 5              1888
     7            APRIL 4              2013
                  APRIL 4              2001
     8            APRIL 3              2008
                  APRIL 3              1969
     10           APRIL 2              1984
                  APRIL 2              1950
     12           MARCH 31             1971

Posted under Uncategorized

This month’s full moon officially occurred this morning at 4:28 local time and boy was it especially bright thanks to completely clear skies in the region and our thick layer of snow cover.  I guess that’s one good thing about having this snow still around in the last week of March. As we know, native Americans and early American settlers have named each month’s full moon based on the accompanying weather or surrounding conditions for the time of the year.  Here’s a look at March’s full moon name list.  Some of these may either make you laugh or cringe.

Posted under Astronomy, Uncategorized

Heavy snow continues to push north out of Iowa.  Colder air is now starting to infiltrate the system helping the wintry mix of rain/sleet/ and snow that northern Iowa was seeing change over to snow.  Temperature is key in a storm like this.  there has to be enough cold air to counter the warm air sending the moisture north.  Off to the west, we have a nice stream of cooler air filtering in.  Once the 20s and some cooler air, we will be able to make very efficient snow which will accumulate quickly.

Earlier warm air was keeping things rain in Cresco Iowa.  We are seeing signs though that the cold air is starting to take over.  Winds will also be an issue. We’re not talking blizzard conditions by any means but a 20-30 mph wind with heavy snow is nothing to take lightly.  Since the snow is heavier it will be a bit hard to blow and drift,but nonetheless we are expecting this to help reduce visibilities.

 And now what everyone has been waiting for. The latest snowfall forecast.  here’s the latest update.  Not much has changed over the course of today,but the heaviest snow axis has shifted a bit west.  the heaviest will fall from now until daybreak Monday.  Snow rates will approach if not exceed 1″ per hour for the next several hours.  The snow will literally come down in buckets in spots.  These totals include what has already fallen around the area.

Prior to the snow, the area received a ton of rain.  Here are a few totals from around the area from the past 48 hours.  This will include some of the liquid equivalent of the snow that has fallen tonight.

Send any photos to weather@kttc.com

Posted under Uncategorized, weather, winter weather

It’s not very often, even in this northerly climate, that we find ourselves below zero in the month of March, but that’s exactly what happened this morning in a large part of our viewing area.  With fairly fresh snowcover, dry high pressure in charge and clear skies overhead, our temperatures took a nosedive early in the predawn hours, settling in the single digits below zero between Rochester, Faribault, and Mason City.  The official morning low in the Rochester was -4 degrees, the first subzero March temperature in fours!  Not only was is cold, but there was some thick fog as the temperature dropped all the way to the dew point level, so visibility was a concern in some spots before 8:00 am.  Because it was a freezing fog, there was also the concern for extra ice depositing on the roads and sidewalks.  Some of that ice deposition  was visible this morning in the form of “hoarfrost.”  It’s actually fairly common to see that this time of the year as moisture becomes more prevalent in the atmosphere with the melting of snow and under clear skies at night. 

Some facts about subzero March temsp in Rochester.