While we in the Upper Midwest think of the end of November as the end of meteorological fall, people along the East Coast and Gulf Coast think of this as the end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The same can be said about scientists at NOAA and the National Weather Service who have issued their annual summary of the 2012 season. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmLYjs0kwnc&feature=youtu.be&noredirect=1

Posted under Tropical weather

While we may not see any “real” effects from Hurricane Sandy such as wind or rain, the storm on the East Coast will be playing quite a large role in our weather over about the next week.

Hurricane Sandy Off of the Carolina Coast. 4:00PM on 10/28

It’s been termed “Frankenstorm”, appropriate enough because the storm is hitting extremely close to Halloween.  Even more appropriate because of the storms makeup.  If anyone is familiar with Frankenstein, the monster was created by a bunch of things being put together and then being brought to life.  Similarly, that is what is going on with Sandy.  Normally tropical system weaken as they move northward up the Atlantic Coast, but not this time.  This time Sandy has has some help, and its help is coming from the system that has brought us the cooler air over the last few days.  The three systems (Strong upper level cold pocket, surface cold front, and of course Sandy) will clash together in the Northeast.  Once they clash, the storm will have another energy source.

Ingredients coming together to produce "Frankenstorm"

All of the weather in the mid-latitudes (Our weather) is driven by temperature differences.  Typically the bigger the temperature difference, the stronger the storm.  Hurricanes have a warm core and I mentioned that it will be colliding with a cold pocket.  Once the two collide, they will explode creating a perfect storm if you will. That is why this hurricane is so much different than ones that typically affect the Northeast.

Heavy Rain and Gusts over 75 mph expected as Sandy collides with Upper Lever System on Monday. Higher elevations in WV and PA could pick up FEET of snow.

There is a method to my madness.  I just wanted to lay some of the ground as to what was actually going on out there before we came back home.  In a nutshell the huge storm out East is going to clog the weather pipeline for the next few days.  While the winds may pick up slightly here because the storm is so large, we won’t see anything even remotely close to what the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is in for.  Thanks to Sandy and its “parts” things will remain quiet and cool in the Upper Midwest.

Posted under just cool, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, Uncategorized, weather

While all eyes continue to watch Tropical Storm Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico, we in the Upper Mississippi Valley are looking ahead to the end of the week when that storm may get close enough to actually impact our weather.  At this point, the National Hurricane Center’s five day cone forecast spreads the potential of rain in our direction by Friday night or Saturday morning.  With that said, the probability seems somewhat remote as it appears Isaac will first weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday after making landfall in the Gulf coast Tuesday evening, and then begin to move eastward by the time it moves as far north as the mid Mississippi Valley around St. Louis.  The best case scenario as suggested by some computer model runs over the weekend, was for Isaac to produce some scattered thunderstorms in far southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and through Chicago on its northern flank.  Right now that doesn’t look as likely, but it’s not completely impossible, so we will be watching, waiting, and hoping for some rainfall from this storm system.  The current rainfall deficit for north Iowa for the past year is around 10 inches and that area is in Extreme Drought while southern Minnesota is under Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions with deficits for the summer around four or five inches.

The current forecast track for Isaac. It's depicted here at a hurricane track as the storm is expected to reach hurricane status before making landfall late Tuesday.

While it currently seems unlikely that Isaac will bring much rain to our region, there is still a lot of time before the storm gets close enough to directly impact the Midwest. There is just a slight chance for some rain for our area from Isaac at this point in our weekend forecast.

Posted under Tropical weather

Courtesy of NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory

“Hurricanes cool ocean temperatures by absorbing energy from the water and by churning up colder water from below. There is no better way to show this process than by looking at the sea surface temperature after a storm. In this case, the image shown here compares the satellite sea surface temperature data from September 12, 2011 to the average for that day over the 1981-2000 time period. The signatures of Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storm Nate are clearly visible as areas of colder than normal water in areas that are otherwise warmer than average. Similar features can also be seen in the actual sea surface temperature data from the same day.”

Link to article/page

Take a look at this picture. A very nice visual of one of nature’s finest balancing acts…

[click the image to immegamake]

Posted under Tropical weather

Just a few days ago we were watching Hurricane Katia closely to make sure she stayed out to sea and away from the east coast.  Well today the United Kingdom is instead taking a direct hit from Katia as a post tropical storm, meaning the charactertistics are no longer of a classic tropical nature, but the wind speeds are well within tropical storm criteria.  Wind gusts all day long have been in the 50 to 70mph range and gusts to 80mph can be expected through tonight.  The UK Meteorological Office (Met Office) has issued severe weather warnings for a big portion of the heart of England, north Wales, Northern Ireland, and the south of Scotland as strong winds are causing damage and heavy rains are expected to cause some localized flash flooding for another day or so.  Is this type of thing rare for the UK?  Yes, but it does seem to happen every couple of years or so.  Hurricanes in Europe are extremely rare, but tropical or post tropical storms do occur occasionally.

Here’s a link to some of the pictures and video of the damage taking place in Great Britain today from the remnants of Katia: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14883670

The outline of storm warnings for the United Kindgom issued by the Met Office for today and tomorrow.

Here’s the official severe weather forecast statement from the Met Office:

Stormy weather across the UK

12 September 2011 – As forecast, a deep area of low pressure which contains post-tropical storm Katia is bringing gales and heavy rain to parts of the UK.

Posted under Tropical weather

Things are getting more and more active in central and western Atlantic Ocean right now as we approach the peak of hurricane season.  On Tuesday, we discussed the disturbance that was likely to become a tropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean west of the Cape Verde Islands as well as the projected path of Hurricane Katia.  Well, the latest information on that region indicates that a tropical storm indeed has formed and is being called Maria.  This storm is expected to remain a tropical storm over the next few days as it approaches the West Indies and the longer range computer modeling suggests that it will veer to the east before reaching the southeastern U.S. early next week.  Katia is expected to do the same as it drifts northwestward between Bermuda and North Carolina and then moves quickly to the northeast, narrowly missing Newfoundland and then getting caught up in the jet stream.  After that, it’s going to travel across the Atlantic and by Monday it’ll end up somewhere between Iceland and northwestern Scotland, possibly reaching the Faroe Islands off the coast of Norway as a hurricane before weakening.  Image that: a hurricane in northern Europe!  We’ll have to wait and see of course, but it will be kind of interesting to see what does end up happening.  A tropical storm last year held together long enough to brush the southern end of Greenland before becoming an extratropical storm system, producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds for that region.

Katia is expected to remain a category one hurricane for several more days, eventually making its way to northwestern Europe.

Maria is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next few days in the western Atlantic before possibly moving back to the east and away from the U.S.

Posted under Tropical weather

As of the most recent update, Katia is back down to category 2 strength. This after reaching category 4 strength just last night. Here’s the track:

Additionally, tropical depression 14 has just developed in the eastern Atlantic.

...and there’s more! 2 additional areas of disturbed weather are being watched for development (labeled ’2′ and ’3′ on this map)…

Click on each image for further details from the NHC.

Posted under Tropical weather

This video shows the incredible force of water. All of this video is from Vermont. There were many other parts of the east coast and New England that dealt with equivalent flooding.

According to MSNBC, the Hurricane Irene death toll is now at least as high as 39.

Posted under flooding, severe weather, Tropical weather

Tropical Depression Twelve is in the far eastern Atlantic and moving westward. It will soon become Katia, according to the NHC forecast.

If this storm holds together as plotted, it will most certainly be a focus of much discussion and concern by this time next week. We’ll patiently wait and see what happens with Katia…

Posted under Tropical weather

Check out this picture from the NOAA/NASA GOES Project

This picture was taken on August 24, 2011 at 11:45 UTC (6:45 a.m. CDT)

Hurricane Irene is visible over the Bahamas in this image. Irene was headed northwest at 12 mph towards the East Coast at the time of the snapshot.

Posted under Tropical weather