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HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...MASSIVE STORM TIDES EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF LANDFALL...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES
WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

Posted under Natural Disaster, severe weather

Not a bad rainfall here today…a touch more than a half-inch for some, so expectations were just barely exceeded.  Totals posted below, or click here for more.

The U.S. Drought Monitor was also updated today, and also as expected, moderate drought conditions have spread a bit more across the region, and a portion of north-central Minnesota has been downgraded (or should that be upgraded?) from moderate to severe drought.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
848 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

…RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY…

LOCATION                   COUNTY               RAINFALL

NORTHEAST IOWA

ELKADER                    CLAYTON               0.63″
LANSING                    ALLAMAKEE             0.45″
JACKSON JUNCTION           WINNESHIEK            0.43″
CHARLES CITY               FLOYD                 0.40″
LITTLEPORT                 CLAYTON               0.38″
IONIA 2W                   CHICKASAW             0.38″
OELWEIN                    FAYETTE               0.35″
MCGREGOR                   CLAYTON               0.29″
OSSIAN                     WINNESHIEK            0.28″
GARBER                     CLAYTON               0.25″
MARQUETTE                  CLAYTON               0.24″
NEW HAMPTON                CHICKASAW             0.23″
WEST UNION                 FAYETTE               0.21″
ION                        ALLAMAKEE             0.19″
MONONA                     CLAYTON               0.15″
CRESCO                     HOWARD                0.09″
BLUFFTON                   WINNESHIEK            0.06″

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

AUSTIN – DOBBINS CREEK     MOWER                 0.56″
LAKE CITY                  WABASHA               0.55″
ROCHESTER – CASCADE CREEK  OLMSTED               0.48″
ROCHESTER – BELTLINE       OLMSTED               0.44″
AUSTIN                     MOWER                 0.44″
PILOT MOUND                FILLMORE              0.34″
ROCHESTER – SILVER CREEK   OLMSTED               0.28″
LANESBORO                  FILLMORE              0.27″
LANSING                    MOWER                 0.26″
KASSON                     DODGE                 0.25″
DOVER 2NE                  OLMSTED               0.21″
BEAVER                     WINONA                0.20″
WINONA – WINONA STATE UNIV WINONA                0.20″
WINONA AWOS                WINONA                0.20″
WHITEWATER STATE PARK      WINONA                0.19″
AUSTIN – TURTLE CREEK      MOWER                 0.19″
STEWARTVILLE               OLMSTED               0.19″
ROCHESTER – BEAR CREEK     OLMSTED               0.17″
PRESTON AWOS               FILLMORE              0.18″
ROCHESTER ASOS             OLMSTED               0.18″
AUSTIN 3S                  MOWER                 0.17″
PLAINVIEW                  WABASHA               0.12″
BROWNSVILLE                HOUSTON               0.12″
HOUSTON                    HOUSTON               0.05″
DAKOTA                     WINONA                0.02″

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, weather

Tonight’s latest model run is reinforcing Thursday’s rainfall forecast.  The U.S. Drought Monitor will update Thursday morning, and moderate drought conditions are likely to expand across the region, so anything helps–but a good soaker would be preferred.  Models are indicating amounts under a half inch for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa over the course of Thursday.  Another shot of much-needed rainfall looks possible Saturday.

Ike’s path has varied from Louisiana to the southern Gulf coast, and the latest track from the NHC would put Ike awfully close to Houston with a northerly turn occuring just before landfall early Saturday morning.

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, weather

Hanna continues its trek across the east coast, and Ike looks to be bearing down on the gulf.

This afternoon and evening’s rainfall may have briefly soaked a few football fans, but our amounts were fairly meager.

Look for more rain Sunday, and cooler weather Sunday into Monday with highs in the low 60s.  I’m hoping to fish a bit Saturday into Sunday morning and…if things go okay…I’ll try to post a report. 

Have a great weekend!

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, weather

Be sure to check out Steph’s story, including video, by clicking here.

Our thanks go to the History Center of Olmsted County for sharing their time, and photos of the 125-year-old disaster.

Before

After

Cascade Park

View from Coles Mill

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, severe weather

Fay made landfall early Tuesday morning as a Tropical Storm. The center of the storm passed near Camp Romano (about 20 miles south of Naples). Fay is still whipping up winds of 65 mph and is slowly progressing to the north and northeast around 10 mph. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are still expected across the southern part of Florida. It will slowly weaken as it wobbles across Florida, but if it hits the Atlantic again, it could re-strengthen.

Along that note, we’re waiting to see how Fay’s path pans out over the next couple of days. Some of the computer models are still thinking Fay will make a turn westward. This still could take it back into the Gulf and allow it to reintensify. The idea merely suggests that folks along the Gulf Coast shouldn’t be confident with the fact that they missed out on Fay.

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, weather

Fay has still not made landfall on the western Florida coast. It’s moving very slowly to the north, around 10 mph, and is battering the southern part of the Florida with rain and gusty winds. Fay’s still a Tropical Storm – winds are around 60 mph – and there’s some uncertainty with whether or not it will reach Category 1 Hurricane strength before making landfall.

Even after it makes landfall, one of the computer models is thinking it’s going to be doing a loop-de-loop and heading back westward into the Gulf of Mexico. It’s uncommon, but it has happened before. Randy managed to dig up two examples (see below): Florence (1960) and Gordon (1994). Will it happen with Fay? We will wait and see…

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, weather

We’re about to hit the one year anniversary of a tough event for many in Southeast Minnesota. Tonight and the next couple of days, our reporters will be featuring stories on the floods and where cities affected stand a year later. You can find the stories on the KTTC website.

We’ve kept an extensive collection of the photos viewers had sent in from the August ’07 floods. You can find those by clicking here. It is incredible what the wrath of water can do, and hard to look at some of the pictures.

Our weather the next several days will be the exact opposite of what happened this time last year. High pressure will keep the area warm (in the 80s for highs), but the humidity in check. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the week, where some of us could top out around 90°. A weak cool front to our north will try to spark some showers tomorrow afternoon as it passes through the area, but they will be hit or miss and will fade shortly after sunset. The air’s not much cooler behind this front, either.

On another “tough weather” note, all eyes are still on Fay, which is still a tropical storm (winds are around 50 mph with higher gusts as of the 8 p.m. EDT report). It is currently passing over western Cuba. Fay is expected to slowly continue to strengthen as it hits the Florida Keys later Monday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Hurricane Watches are posted along the western coast of Florida, and landfall is expected near the panhandle sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday, as a Category 1 Hurricane.  It is looking more and more likely that we will see our next landfalling storm by the time Wednesday rolls around.

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, Tropical weather, weather

I was digging around on YouTube to see if I could find any good footage from the bow echo that roared through Chicago on Monday evening. CNN had plenty of good pictures and video from eyewitnesses too.  It was a doozy of a storm and sparked tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for that area. There were reports of tornadoes on the ground northwest of downtown Chicago, and numerous reports of damaging, destructive winds and large hail (see graphic below).

What I actually came across most was footage from people who had been at the Cubs baseball game – ongoing when the storm came through. This could have been disaster had there actually been a tornado that struck the stadium with that many people there. Not only that, but for people that chose to stand outside during it, we could have been talking tonight about fatalities from lightning strikes or being struck by debris. Even by seeking shelter inside the stadium, between those concrete walls, you’re still running the risk of a major catastrophe. It was nearly a worst nightmare come true, and it begs the question – what do you do with thousands upon thousands of people when such a severe storm comes through? Luckily…no one was hurt.

On a lighter note, get ready for comfy days and cool nights ahead. No stormy weather in sight, with the exception on an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon.

Posted under KTTC, Natural Disaster, severe weather, weather

After an abnormally wet spring, we’ve started to slump off in the rainfall department – at least, some of us.

While Iowa and Wisconsin aren’t seeing it, some parts of Minnesota are experiencing conditions that are “abnormally dry” – about 41% of the state. Take a look at the map below, and you can see that a good chunk of the southern half of Minnesota, along with a portion of north central and northwest Minnesota are experiencing drier than normal conditions. This is even reaching Goodhue, Rice, and Steele counties. It doesn’t look like much true relief for these areas through the next week.

Has it been worse? Definitely. Remember the summer months of 2007? This time last year, 82% of the state was “abnormally dry”, with nearly 24% in a severe to extreme drought. Even 2006 was a rough summer, with similar numbers around the same time.

Bottom line – we need a good, gentle, soaking rain for these precipitation-starved areas to catch up, and hopefully we don’t go where we did the last couple of summers. A good rain is hard to come by in the summer months.

Posted under climate, KTTC, Natural Disaster, weather