Our unbelievable stretch of cold, wet, and wintry weather persists as we head into the third weekend of April.  Once again we’re dealing with a thin coating of snow with snowflakes flying around and raw northwest winds that are keeping wind chill indices in the teens and 20s.  For the 9th time in 19 days so far this month, it appears we’ll be settling for high temperatures in the 30s today.  There’s actually a chance that we’ll set a record today for the coldest high temperature on this date which in Rochester is 36° set in 1939.  As skies clear tonight and winds diminish, we’re expecting to have some radiational cooling that will allow our temperatures to drop to the low 20s which is almost 20 degrees colder than normal for this time of he year.  The record low for Saturday morning in Rochester is 21° set in 1956 and the forecast for tomorrow is 22°, so that record looks to be in striking distance. 

After some near record cold weather, we’ll be experiencing a very slight warming trend for the next several days.

High pressure Saturday will provide us with enough sunshine to warm us into the 40s which is a little closer to what we might consider April weather.  Thus far, it’s been hardly April-like this month as our mean temperature through 18 days is 36.0° which is colder than the coldest mean April temperature of 37.6° which occurred in 1950, so we’re on pace to have the coldest April in Rochester history.  However, temperatures are expected to slowly climb in the coming days with mostly 40s for highs in next week, but possibly some 50s late in the month, so it’ll be interesting to see how high that mean temperature will climb.

Posted under Cold

It has been an eventful Winter, especially during the back half with a top 10 snowiest February on record and the third snowiest March on record.  With all of the snow (23.5″) we’ve had in March, we have also had a ton of cold to go with it.   We have been below normal for much of the month and compared to the March of 2012, we aren’t even in the same universe.  In the breakdown below I’m using 40 degrees as the benchmark since we have not hit 40 degrees once this month.  Last March we were in 70s for several days including 2 days in the 80s.

During the second half of this week, temperatures will start to head toward the 40s.  We aren’t forecasting a major warm up by any means, but the 40s will sure seem nice, especially after the cold March thus far. The Jetstream will be driving this warm-up.  The Jetstream is the river of air where the jet airlines fly and divides the cold air from the warm air.  When the Jetstream dives south of us, like it has been over the last month or so, we are colder.  The opposite is true when it takes a trip up to Canada.  This week we will be on both sides of the Jetstream and thus the first few days of this week will be cold and the second, a little warmer.  The colors in the map below represent wind speed.  The darker the color, the stronger wind.  Because of this strong jet, there is a powerful winter storm affecting the southern plains and mid Atlantic states.  I think it did us a good for a change that we missed out on this one.

For the latest 7 day forecast as we track the first signs of Spring temperature wise check out kttc.com/weather

Posted under Cold, weather

While our weather has dried out this week and the winds have finally dropped off, we’re still dealing with some unseasonably cold temperatures across the region as we approach the end of the week.  Cold, dry Canadian high pressure has settled in from the north, making for a bright, frigid weather picture today and this looks to continue for a few more days.  An active jet stream overhead has been responsible for keeping things rather snowy for us in recent weeks, but now there are signs that there is going to be a shift to the south and this dry high pressure may be dominating for the most part through the end of the month.  There will be small snow chances Sunday and then during the upcoming week, but totals look to be minor if they’re measurable at all.  Temperatures will slowly increase over time, but we won’t be anywhere close to what is considered “normal” for late March standards as 30s will be the rule for the next week. 

Posted under Cold

Thanks to my friends Jeff and Todd R. at NWS La Crosse for digging into the database for me.

Even though this past Monday’s high temperature was forecast to stay below zero, the daytime high squeaked up to 1° above zero in the afternoon. The complete lack of snowpack in southeast Minnesota offset the strength of the arctic airmass and it turned out to be a few degrees warmer than forecast. That may have been our one and only shot this winter at a day with the temperature remaining below zero.

As of today, we are only 16 days from the all-time record for consecutive days with a high temperature above zero in Rochester, MN.

Here are the top 5 streaks for most consecutive days in which the high temperature was 0 degrees or warmer. The last day in Rochester in which the temperature stayed below zero for the entire day was January 4th of 2010 when the high was -1°. Just two days prior to that, the high was -6° and low was -19° on January 2nd, 2010.

1) 1130 days – 2000-12-25 through 2004-01-28
2) 1114 days – 2010-01-05 through 2013-01-22
3) 1110 days – 1955-12-20 through 1959-01-02
4) 779 days – 1990-12-31 through 1993-02-16
5) 749 days – 2005-01-16 through 2007-02-03

By the way, the longest stretch on record in Rochester for the temperature not reaching above zero is 7 days in January of 1912, from the 2nd through the 8th of January. Had the temperature not reached just barely above zero at 2° for a high on January 9th, 1912, the single stretch would have continued through January 13th. January 1912 was also the coldest month on record in Rochester.

Posted under climate, Cold, Records, Rochester

The forecast low for Tuesday morning is -15°, which isn’t even close to the record low of -37° for January 22nd, set back in 1888. However, it has been nearly 2 years since the temperature has dipped that low – the last occurrence of -15° or colder in Rochester was February 10th of 2011.

So, the strength of this recent cold snap is in the eye of the beholder. How significant is it to you? Are you a little stunned by the chilly temperatures, or left unimpressed? Looking at the numbers alone, the most significant statistic I can draw from this arctic spill is the length of time it has been since it has been this cold in Rochester. We won’t be setting any records this week.

Last time -15 or colder: 712 days ago – nearly 2 years
2/10/2011: Low of -15°

Last day completely below zero: 1,116 days (and counting)
1/2/2010: High of -6, Low of -19

Last time a record low temperature was tied or broken in Rochester: 1,780 days ago (and counting)
3/8/2008: Low of -8

Winter 2012-13
Days with below zero temp.: 7 (including Tuesday, 1/22)

Winter 2011-12 
Days with below zero temp.: 8
Coldest temp.: -12, January 21st

Winter 2010-11
Days with below zero temp.: 29
Coldest temp.: -22, January 21st

Winter 2009-10
Days with below zero temp.: 25
Coldest temp.: -19, January 2nd

Posted under climate, Cold, Rochester

We’re in for quite a roller coaster ride in our local weather over the next few days as unseasonably warm air and then an arctic blast will make their way into our weather picture.  Strangely enough, we start things off with a very quiet, typical mid January day today with a slight breeze, some sunshine, and high temperatures in the 20s.  After this, however, it’ll be far from typical January weather for a couple of days as a storm system north of us kicks up some strong southwest winds during the day and with abundant sunshine, works to pull in some really mild air.  High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 40s which will be closer to a record high than the seasonably cold 20s that would be closer to average.  There will be some snow showers or flurries early in the days as the warm front moves through and then again Saturday as a potent cold front approaches from the northwest behind that storm system.   Saturday will be windy and warmer than normal to start before the arctic air blows in during the afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will drop like a rock in the evening Saturday and then not recorver much Sunday with more snow showers possible.  The coldest air from northern Canada will linger through Monday and Tuesday before warmer, more seasonable weather returns for the middle of the upcoming week.

Temperatures will begin their climb early Friday and then drop off dramatically late Saturday.

Posted under Cold, weather

Our January thaw has ended, our snow pack is gone, but Winter is not over yet.  While it doesn’t look like that huge storm is on the horizon yet, our pattern has changed, and is in the process of settling in to a much colder one.

The graphic below shows where we stand (our pattern) currently.  The jet-stream is heading south and so is the cold air from Canada.  The jet-stream doesn’t look to be coming back north anytime soon either, meaning we will stay on the cold side of things for a while as well.

Pattern as of 1/13/2013 – Cold has replaced last weeks warm-up

Over the next week or so, a ridge of high pressure looks like it will build off the west coast of the United States.  As the ridge bulges north into Canada out west, the trough we are currently under will continue to sink to south allowing even colder air to spill into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Pattern will likely support an outbreak of Arctic air for third week of Jan.

Here is a look at just how cold the air is up in northern Canada.  This air could be paying us a visit within the next ten days.  Now this airmass would modify somewhat as it drifts south into our area.  If there was snow on the ground, the airmass would be insulated much better on it’s trip southward.  What I’m trying to say is that this air will likely warm up a bit before it gets here.

Cold air hanging out in northern Canada

So about our snow chances.  There is a chance we could have a little bit of snow on the ground before this possible Arctic Blast visits us.  It likely won’t be much, but this same pattern is conducive to producing “Alberta Clippers”; those fast moving light snow producing storms that occasionally swing by in the Winter.  We could see a couple of them before the weekend, but the tracks of these systems are hard to pin down this far out.

Set-up will support “Clipper” development

Posted under climate, Cold, weather, winter weather

After a March-like week that has featured high temperatures in the 30s and quite a bit of melting snow, it looks like more typical January weather is just hours away.  A potent cold front to our west is expected to sweep through the area after midnight tonight, unleashing some strong, cold west winds that will blow seasonably cold air back into the region.  Ahead of that front today, we’re dealing with the effects of warm weather and melting snow as fog is thick and gray is the color scheme du jour.  We’ll have clouds and highs near 40 degrees for our “Finally Friday” with south winds gradually increasing and working to slowly mix out some of our fog.  While heavy snow will be likely tonight through much of Saturday in the northern plains and far northwestern Minnesota with this storm system and cold front, we’ll get just a few snow showers and flurries along that front and then dry, mainly gray weather for Saturday.  Temperatures this weekend in the wake of that front will be very typical of mid January, beginning a trend of cold weather that looks to linger through most of the rest of the month.

Temperatures look to drop off a cliff late tonight as a strong cold front brings winter weather back to the area.

Posted under Cold, winter weather

Being in the midst of a January thaw, it’s a pretty easy call to say we’ll be getting colder after this week. Colder Canadian air will begin pushing into the region this weekend and will bring temperatures back to “normal” and below from this weekend through the majority of next week. Note, colder does not equal more snow in this case.

Here are the Climate Prediction Center outlooks for the 14th-18th and 16th-22nd of January, respectively.

While there have been hints in long-range model data of a really cold stretch ahead around the 2nd half of January, it doesn’t appear at this time that the coldest of arctic air will be visiting us…at least not yet. I expect temperatures to be dipping below zero again in a couple weeks.

The Climate Prediction Center is also predicting above normal precipitation from the 14th through the 22nd, but I can’t hop on board with that. Aside from a shot of rain late Thursday into Friday, there’s little chance at anything else from this weekend through the middle of next week. Outside of that, any chance for snow will be entirely storm-dependent and general trends can’t help us much with storm tracks and snow potential.

Posted under climate, Cold, winter weather

This isn’t good news for the snow lovers and winter outdoors-people. In our 7-day forecast today, we’re looking at a return of 30+ degree high temperatures returning Sunday through Tuesday. Longer range model data is indicating a generally mild trend after next Tuesday.

This forecast is from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and shows their forecast temperature trends across the country next Monday, January 7th through Friday, January 11th.

And this is…interesting (below). This is model data at 6pm next Thursday, the 10th. This would indicate rain. Yes, rain, next Thursday, if it turns out to be correct, but this far out the margin of error is very high. [click to enslushenate]

Just when you’re starting to get used to the normal, winter “feel” of things…

Posted under climate, Cold, Winter Outlook, winter weather