Here we ago again! A couple of weeks removed from the biggest snow storm we have seen in the last two Winters and we are already talking about a storm that has the potential to one up that.  First to get you up to speed, here’s where we stand so far for the entire Winter.  We are sitting about 9″ below in the snowfall department, but we will have a chance to make most of, if not all of it up with this next Winter Storm.

Now on to the storm.  It will likely come in two distinct waves.  The first overnight and into late Tuesday morning with second push of moderate to heavy snow falling from Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon.  In between, during Monday afternoon, lighter snow will persist with a few breaks.  We could have a couple of inches on the ground by the morning commute, especially in Austin, Albert Lea and surrounding areas.  A general 2-4″ can be expected by Monday evening with the initial burst of moderate to heavy snow.  The better chance for the significant accumulation will come with the second push.  Below is how the storm will likely play out.

Above is the first band of snow moving in overnight that could cause a slippery morning commute.  After this initial band moves through, the snow is expected to become lighter for the time being until it picks up again later in the evening.

The second burst of moderate to heavy is snow is likely where we will pick up most of our accumulation.  Monday night is when we will likely see the heaviest snow.  The snow is expected to shut off by the late afternoon on Tuesday.  This will be a long duration snow event with two distinct snow episodes.  Here is the latest.  Isolated higher amounts could be possible in the purple outline.

A change in the track could have big impacts on the forecast.  Stay with KTTC for the latest.

Posted under climate, snowfall amounts, winter, winter weather

 Snow lovers rejoiced last week when we registered the greatest snowfall in a couple of years in our area with 5 to 8 inches measured in most parts of southeastern Minnesota, but not everybody shared that sentiment. There are a lot of people who are thinking ahead to warmer days and hoping for a little bit of spring the air and have even asked if there are any signs that a patten shift is a ahead that could bring such a change in our weather. This time around, that actually does not look to be the case.  Unlike last year and even 2010, two of the past three years that have featured an early arrival of spring, our pattern right now look to remain cool, mostly gray, and just a little snowy, or potentially snowy. As we approach the first of March which is the beginning of “meteorological spring” our average highs climb above freezing and in March typically make their way quickly into the mid 30s and then 40s. Our curent trend looks to feature close to normal if not slightly below normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks as a northwesterly flow looks to dominate the upper levels of the atmosphere, keeping things chilly and kind of February-like. Currently there are only a couple of chances of light snow in the forecast, one Tuesday night into Wednesday and another next Monday, but this type of pattern may keep those little doses of snow around off and on for a while with extra clouds around few signs of spring-like sunshine and full scale melting. The overall outlook for March from the Climate Prediction Center is for warmer than normal temperatures and wetter than normal weather for March, but the latest first half outlook keeps things cooler than normal and drier than normal. Maybe that means the second half will be a whole lot warmer, or maybe the monthly outlook is just wrong (that wouldn’t be the first time!) Anyway, the gist of the story here is that we’ll have to be patient while waiting for spring’s arrival and maybe enjoy the snow we have on the ground.

The Climate Center’s outlook for March calls for an increased chance for warmer than normal temperatures in the month.

The Climate Center’s current outlook for March calls for a wetter than nornal month.

Posted under climate

It has been a long time since we have talked about something being above average other than the temperature.  The February of 2013 is changing that though.  Through February so far we have had 15″ of snow fall at the Rochester International Airport.  That was jump started by day after day after day of Clippers to start the month and then recently with the biggest snowstorm we have had in the last two winters.  Climatologically speaking,  February is the least snowy of the snowy months, but during the Winter of 12/13 it has been the snowiest.  Not only has it been the snowiest this Winter, we have actually cracked the top 10 snowiest for the month of February.  Here’s the list of five through ten.

In the coming days we will have a chance to climb up this list a little higher.  We are watching a large system that will feature the heaviest snow staying well to the south and east of our area, but come Tuesday and Wednesday, we will have a chance to be scraped by this system.

This is how the storm will look on Monday evening.  This system will likely bring a full blown Blizzard to parts of the plain states.  The track again will stay away from us, most likely putting Chicago in the bulls eye after slamming portions of Kansas and Missouri with over a foot of snow.  Our chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday and the intensity will be MUCH lighter.  With that said, a jog in the track northward would change things drastically so we are still monitoring the track of this one.

February has definitely brought active weather back to Minnesota.  Hopefully this stretch will continue to help replenish area streams and rivers.  The recent liquid will help somewhat to do that, but we need this active weather to continue into spring to help put a dent in the drought since the ground is still frozen.  Fingers crossed, but definitely a positive sign going forward!

Posted under climate, Drought, history, minnesota, Records, weather, winter, winter weather

The snow from the afternoon officially gave Rochester (Where official climatology numbers are kept for the area) more snow through the 5th of Feb than we had all of Last Winter.

 
Here are some totals from around the area from Tuesday (2/5)

IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE...
WAUKON                         1.0 IN    
LANSING 4SE                    0.4 IN    

...CHICKASAW...
NEW HAMPTON                    0.5 IN    
IONIA 2W                       T IN      

...CLAYTON...
MONONA WWTP                    0.5 IN    
GUTTENBERG DAM 10              0.4 IN    
VOLGA 1NE                      0.3 IN    
ELKADER 6SSW                   0.2 IN    
EDGEWOOD                       0.2 IN    

...FAYETTE...
CLERMONT                       0.4 IN    
FAYETTE                        T IN    

...FLOYD...
CHARLES CITY                   0.2 IN    

...HOWARD...
CRESCO 1NE                     0.6 IN    
ELMA                           T IN      

...MITCHELL...
ST ANSGAR                      0.2 IN    
OSAGE                          T IN      

...WINNESHIEK...
CALMAR                         0.5 IN    
4 S SATTRE                     T IN      

MINNESOTA

...DODGE...
MANTORVILLE                    3.5 IN    
2 ESE MANTORVILLE              1.0 IN    
KASSON                         0.5 IN    
2 SSE CLAREMONT                0.5 IN    
2 SSE CLAREMONT                0.5 IN    

...FILLMORE...
PETERSON 1S                    2.7 IN   
LANESBORO                      1.4 IN   
2 SSE PILOT MOUND              0.7 IN    

...HOUSTON...
RENO 3SW                       2.1 IN    
SPRING GROVE 4N                1.0 IN    
2 ENE WILMINGTON               0.2 IN    

...MOWER...
ELKTON                         1.5 IN    
AUSTIN                         1.2 IN    
GRAND MEADOW                   0.5 IN    
AUSTIN WASTE WATER TREATMENT F 0.4 IN   

...OLMSTED...
ROCHESTER                      2.5 IN    
ROCHESTER AP 2NE               2.3 IN    
PINE ISLAND 2S                 2.2 IN    
1 SE ROCHESTER                 2.0 IN    
ORONOCO                        1.8 IN   
BYRON 4 NORTH                  1.8 IN    
ELGIN 2SSW                     1.3 IN  

...WABASHA...
THEILMAN 1SSW                  3.5 IN    
MAZEPPA 5SE                    2.5 IN    
WABASHA                        1.2 IN   

...WINONA...
4 SW ELBA                      3.3 IN    
WINONA                         2.0 IN   
ALTURA 5W                      1.4 IN    
TREMPEALEAU DAM 6              1.0 IN    
LA CRESCENT DAM 7              1.0 IN   
MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5           0.5 IN  
GOODVIEW                       0.5 IN    
LEWISTON                       0.5 IN    
WINONA DAM 5A                  0.4 IN    

WISCONSIN

...ADAMS...
MONROE CENTER 1E               T IN     

...BUFFALO...
ALMA DAM 4                     0.5 IN    

...CLARK...
OWEN 2N                        0.3 IN    
NEILLSVILLE 3ESE               T IN      

...CRAWFORD...
LYNXVILLE DAM 9                0.5 IN    
STEUBEN 4SE                    0.5 IN    
DESOTO 1SE                     0.4 IN   
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN               0.4 IN   

...GRANT...
LANCASTER 4WSW                 0.4 IN   

...JACKSON...
HATFIELD DAM                   0.1 IN    
MATHER 3NW                     T IN    

...LA CROSSE...
LA CROSSE NWS                  1.7 IN    
LA CROSSE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT    1.5 IN    
LA CROSSE 4NNW                 0.5 IN    
2 NW ONALASKA                  0.4 IN

Posted under climate, Snow Totals, weather, winter, winter weather

Thanks to my friends Jeff and Todd R. at NWS La Crosse for digging into the database for me.

Even though this past Monday’s high temperature was forecast to stay below zero, the daytime high squeaked up to 1° above zero in the afternoon. The complete lack of snowpack in southeast Minnesota offset the strength of the arctic airmass and it turned out to be a few degrees warmer than forecast. That may have been our one and only shot this winter at a day with the temperature remaining below zero.

As of today, we are only 16 days from the all-time record for consecutive days with a high temperature above zero in Rochester, MN.

Here are the top 5 streaks for most consecutive days in which the high temperature was 0 degrees or warmer. The last day in Rochester in which the temperature stayed below zero for the entire day was January 4th of 2010 when the high was -1°. Just two days prior to that, the high was -6° and low was -19° on January 2nd, 2010.

1) 1130 days – 2000-12-25 through 2004-01-28
2) 1114 days – 2010-01-05 through 2013-01-22
3) 1110 days – 1955-12-20 through 1959-01-02
4) 779 days – 1990-12-31 through 1993-02-16
5) 749 days – 2005-01-16 through 2007-02-03

By the way, the longest stretch on record in Rochester for the temperature not reaching above zero is 7 days in January of 1912, from the 2nd through the 8th of January. Had the temperature not reached just barely above zero at 2° for a high on January 9th, 1912, the single stretch would have continued through January 13th. January 1912 was also the coldest month on record in Rochester.

Posted under climate, Cold, Records, Rochester

The forecast low for Tuesday morning is -15°, which isn’t even close to the record low of -37° for January 22nd, set back in 1888. However, it has been nearly 2 years since the temperature has dipped that low – the last occurrence of -15° or colder in Rochester was February 10th of 2011.

So, the strength of this recent cold snap is in the eye of the beholder. How significant is it to you? Are you a little stunned by the chilly temperatures, or left unimpressed? Looking at the numbers alone, the most significant statistic I can draw from this arctic spill is the length of time it has been since it has been this cold in Rochester. We won’t be setting any records this week.

Last time -15 or colder: 712 days ago – nearly 2 years
2/10/2011: Low of -15°

Last day completely below zero: 1,116 days (and counting)
1/2/2010: High of -6, Low of -19

Last time a record low temperature was tied or broken in Rochester: 1,780 days ago (and counting)
3/8/2008: Low of -8

Winter 2012-13
Days with below zero temp.: 7 (including Tuesday, 1/22)

Winter 2011-12 
Days with below zero temp.: 8
Coldest temp.: -12, January 21st

Winter 2010-11
Days with below zero temp.: 29
Coldest temp.: -22, January 21st

Winter 2009-10
Days with below zero temp.: 25
Coldest temp.: -19, January 2nd

Posted under climate, Cold, Rochester

Our January thaw has ended, our snow pack is gone, but Winter is not over yet.  While it doesn’t look like that huge storm is on the horizon yet, our pattern has changed, and is in the process of settling in to a much colder one.

The graphic below shows where we stand (our pattern) currently.  The jet-stream is heading south and so is the cold air from Canada.  The jet-stream doesn’t look to be coming back north anytime soon either, meaning we will stay on the cold side of things for a while as well.

Pattern as of 1/13/2013 – Cold has replaced last weeks warm-up

Over the next week or so, a ridge of high pressure looks like it will build off the west coast of the United States.  As the ridge bulges north into Canada out west, the trough we are currently under will continue to sink to south allowing even colder air to spill into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Pattern will likely support an outbreak of Arctic air for third week of Jan.

Here is a look at just how cold the air is up in northern Canada.  This air could be paying us a visit within the next ten days.  Now this airmass would modify somewhat as it drifts south into our area.  If there was snow on the ground, the airmass would be insulated much better on it’s trip southward.  What I’m trying to say is that this air will likely warm up a bit before it gets here.

Cold air hanging out in northern Canada

So about our snow chances.  There is a chance we could have a little bit of snow on the ground before this possible Arctic Blast visits us.  It likely won’t be much, but this same pattern is conducive to producing “Alberta Clippers”; those fast moving light snow producing storms that occasionally swing by in the Winter.  We could see a couple of them before the weekend, but the tracks of these systems are hard to pin down this far out.

Set-up will support “Clipper” development

Posted under climate, Cold, weather, winter weather

Being in the midst of a January thaw, it’s a pretty easy call to say we’ll be getting colder after this week. Colder Canadian air will begin pushing into the region this weekend and will bring temperatures back to “normal” and below from this weekend through the majority of next week. Note, colder does not equal more snow in this case.

Here are the Climate Prediction Center outlooks for the 14th-18th and 16th-22nd of January, respectively.

While there have been hints in long-range model data of a really cold stretch ahead around the 2nd half of January, it doesn’t appear at this time that the coldest of arctic air will be visiting us…at least not yet. I expect temperatures to be dipping below zero again in a couple weeks.

The Climate Prediction Center is also predicting above normal precipitation from the 14th through the 22nd, but I can’t hop on board with that. Aside from a shot of rain late Thursday into Friday, there’s little chance at anything else from this weekend through the middle of next week. Outside of that, any chance for snow will be entirely storm-dependent and general trends can’t help us much with storm tracks and snow potential.

Posted under climate, Cold, winter weather

This isn’t good news for the snow lovers and winter outdoors-people. In our 7-day forecast today, we’re looking at a return of 30+ degree high temperatures returning Sunday through Tuesday. Longer range model data is indicating a generally mild trend after next Tuesday.

This forecast is from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and shows their forecast temperature trends across the country next Monday, January 7th through Friday, January 11th.

And this is…interesting (below). This is model data at 6pm next Thursday, the 10th. This would indicate rain. Yes, rain, next Thursday, if it turns out to be correct, but this far out the margin of error is very high. [click to enslushenate]

Just when you’re starting to get used to the normal, winter “feel” of things…

Posted under climate, Cold, Winter Outlook, winter weather